Humans are funny creatures. We see patterns everywhere, even when there is no pattern.
That human tendency gives rise to sayings like "Technical analysts predicted 23 of the last two recessions." Technical analysts are people who study stock and commodity prices and look for patterns.
"Village life" videos
I have been watching "village life" videos. I find them informative and entertaining. If you want to learn an efficient way to do something, watch somebody who does it every day and who relies on what she does to put food on the table. "Hobby" farmers usually have a lot of hidden subsidies so their (my?) methods are suspect.
Many of those "village life" videos are recorded in Eastern Europe. There are several reasons for that.
Eastern European nations are poor
The economy left them behind. A typical per-capita GDP for an Eastern European country might be $25k while western countries are twice to four times that.
Eastern European countries are rural and low-tech
While under the Soviet umbrella, industry was not encouraged,M lest they challenge the might of the Soviet empire. The satellite countries supplied food, raw materials and soldiers for the empire. Industries were starved of capital improvements and cannot compete with Asian imports.
Eastern European countries are starved of manpower
Working-age men leave for western cities where there are good-paying jobs in factories. Many of the women follow them. The pensioners and some of the (very few) kids stay behind.
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Many houses, even entire villages are abandoned and rapidly collapsing.
Making video content is one of the cash-generating "industries" that is within the capability of the people left behind.
Is this our future?
While you can argue that places like Michigan, Indiana, Tennessee and New Hampshire are NOTHING like Bulgaria, Ukraine or Albania, there are similarities.
The laws of thermodynamics still hold. If you put too much into a process relative to what comes out, you will go broke (or starve).
Communism is being touted as the solution to every problem. Government kleptocrats are running amok at every level.
Younger people are attracted to cities and what they see as urban economic advantages.
The US birthrate is below replacement and the Baby Boom pig-in-the-python is nearing the tail.
Lol, as a stock trader who uses TA, I feel compelled to interject. TA provides a mathematical framework to judge risk/reward when certain "patterns" develop. The 'technical' portion of the analysis provides go/no-go boundaries with hard numbers, and (this is what many people miss) - a percentage of completion. Not EVERY pattern completes, but some do upwards of 65% or more when properly identified (e.g. that go/no-go stuff).
ReplyDeleteAnyone that's studied statistics knows 2/3rds is the magic number... so if you can draw some squiggles and get your trade closer to that magic 66% probability number, you can make money.
Anon with respect were you trading in the 1970's?
DeleteOr as that semi-famous boilerplate the financial gurus always seem to say, "Past performance doesn't guarantee future results".
"To everything there is a season, and a time for every purpose under heaven." - Ecclesiastes 3:1 (KJV).
Nothing new under the sun friend. History is just human nature expressed on a larger canvas.
To answer Joes (I suspect rhetorical) question. YES, you CNA learn from the past (see Bible and dusty old history books for details) as well as recent and current history. We've LOST more old school it JUST WORKS information in the rush for A/C controlled diesel tractors and roundup.
NH and the rest of the USA isn't that far from Eastern Europe as "Democratic Socialism" (Communism with candy sprinkles on it being nice about that) is and WILL Accelerate us into the "Glorious Party" era as Minneapolis and CONgress is showing us.
Looking at the "Deal" to keep the grift, err I MEAN the Government OPEN just defund law enforcement and make them OPEN TARGETS for Doxxing and terrorism by the street army crazies.
Seems THEY are already promising us tribunals for those that "support tyranny". Want some links for that folks?
Communisms HISTORY is well known. Here it comes with candy sprinkles.
I am honestly glad that technical analysis is working for you.
DeleteI am leery of the technique for a couple of reasons. I watched a coworker lose her entire 401-k after going all-in after a certain stock touched a "support limit". It continued its glide path to zero and Becky was sure it was coming back.
-Joe
Well, yeah, the "All in" part there... that's the error. If you're playing percentages (which is what trading is), you never bet 100%. At best you can get 2 out of 3 to 'work', depending on which pattern, so you lose 1 for every 2 you win.
DeleteTrade management (cutting losers quickly), confirmation strategies, etc. all play a role as well.
I like the hard-math behind some of it (you're a numbers guy...). Helps remove some emotion from the process, but mostly I use it to filter out high-probability trades to take a look at. Just randomly throwing spaghetti against the wall doesn't work well. If this one has a decent odd of going this way or that, maybe I'll take a look at it. From the millions of options available, using repeatable patterns narrows it down to a few hundred per day.
When I was in rural Romania several years ago, there was a lack of heavy equipment. Farms may have had a shared tractor and horse drawn wagons supplied most of the transportation. No baled hay, loose hay pitched into lofts.
ReplyDeleteWe passed a group of men putting in a waterline. 30-40 men hand digging the trench, no excavator in sight.
You laugh, but this was one reason I bought my portable sawmill...
DeleteI think we have stuff to learn from Poland and Hungaria.
ReplyDelete