The Russians were twisting Trump's nose when they told him that "There are a multitude of countries willing to sell Iran nuclear warheads."
Purchasing nukes after the USSR broke up was always a much faster and cheaper way for Iran to get a handful of nuclear warheads. They could have been hidden away in a warehouse and Iranian scientists could have pretended to have invented them. They could have the prestige and been able to demonstrate a big KABOOM!
Why didn't Iran go down that road? Maybe because their plans demand far more than a handful of nuclear devices. Maybe they wanted fifty or a hundred or maybe more. You know, it was almost as if they were thinking of them as a consumable commodity.
Straits of Hormuz
Over half of China's oil comes from the Persian Gulf. Iran shutting down the Straits of Hormuz will put a lot of economic pressure on China, pressure that the ruling government cannot afford.
It seems likely that China will "suggest" that Iran make its point...and then remove their blockade. The most probable path, as seen from Eaton Rapids, is that Iran will withdraw the blockade by late-Wednesday after demonstrating they can put a cork-in-the-bottle. They will list "Humanitarian reasons" for the reversal.
Given Russia's history with Islam in general and Chechnya in specific I doubt they would sell those devices to an Islamic regime.
ReplyDeleteI agree: People seem to overlook necessarily mixed feelings about the Islamic Republic and therefore their difficulty in working out what is in Russia's/Putin's interest.
DeleteI do believe that there is a rail line to China. Alternative route for crude might mean a longer corking of the Straights.
ReplyDeleteI suspect the Straits of Hormuz situation will continue until Israel humbles themselves and stops attacking Iran.
ReplyDeleteChina has established the silk road to Iran and doesn't need the Straits.
Now I do have concerns that a false flag situation will suddenly occur to try to force Trump into Israels war.
Israel has very good German made Dolphin Class Submarines.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolphin-class_submarine
And they have the ability to launch a nuclear weapon.
I fully expect a jewish missile to sink an American carrier for which Iran will suffer the blame.
DeleteIs there a rail line from Iran to China? Yes. Can it handle the volume of oil China needs, as well as everything else they need it to move? No. Moving oil by rail is incredibly inefficient and limited to relatively low volumes.
ReplyDeleteBack in the 90's there were persistent rumors of Iraq trying to buy nukes from the USSR, and Saudi Arabia has been open about their efforts to buy them. I doubt a country would openly sell at this point - but individuals may; it was a fear of the west in the 90's that corrupt Russians would sell nukes to Iraq or somewhere else (and also the subject of many novels, several of which I read at the time).
Jonathan
Oil by rail doesn't work?
DeleteYou may want to tell Warren Buffet...
You might want to check your math on oil by rail in quantities sufficient for China's needs and wants.
DeleteNapkin math:
One supertanker (2M bbls of oil) is equivalent to over 30 trains of 100 tank cars each. China's annual imports are 5-6 supertankers of oil/year (11M bbls), so that'd be 150-180 trains 100 cars long, each, or one every other day, forever, and rising every year. Not counting all the other goods it wants, and you'd have to
a) have that many tank cars to begin with, and
b) have a way to get them back the other way to refill.
Sh'yeah, okay.
All of which could be stopped indefinitely by one blown up trestle or track section, in a nation that's being bombed to bits by the numbers as we speak.
Nobody's blowing up Warren Buffet's railroads.
For 2023 (the last year that I can find), the main exporters of oil to China are Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Malaysia (and it is theorized some of the oil from Malaysia is actually rebranded from Iran, to avoid U.S. Sanctions). Three of those countries (3.25 if you count some oil from Malaysia that has been rebranded) would be impacted by a closure of the Straits of Hormuz.
ReplyDeleteAdditionally, closing the Straits puts pressure not just on importing countries, but on their neighbors that use the Straits to generate income as well. I cannot imagine the Saudis, UAE, Kuwaitis, or Iraqis will take well to a long term closure as it costs them money as well.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61843
The Saudis would quietly bankroll Israel's bombing campaign to destroy any such Iranian blockade, if they aren't already doing so right this minute.
DeleteAs has been the case for the last 40 years.
There isn't a nation within 1000 miles of Tehran that wants Iran to have nuclear weapons, and Israel is only the most obvious one.
The Gulf nations, including Iraq, probably fell all over themselves to give the IAF unrestricted and unhindered flyover rights to get to Iran, privately, while publicly crying crocodile tears about what Israel has done to their non-Arab neighbor.
There are no simple, easy or pleasant answers when it comes to dealing with collections of islamists...whether it be a nation or just a collection of terrorists. Because their "religion" COMMANDS them to either enslave or kill EVERYONE who doesn't subscribe to their "religion". This means that the ONLY language they will hear, respect and listen to is the universal language...violence. Anything else they simply ignore as they continue their 1400+ year campaign of terror, savagery and destruction.
ReplyDeleteChina has a direct rail connect to Iran now. The gulf isn't as important as it once was. Neither the Suez/Panama canal, but thats another conversation. The calculous, the formula, has changed.
ReplyDeleteWhats the best way to neuter an enemies weapon? Make it unnecessary. US global hegemony is anchored in part by the Navies Carrier complex and global trade. They neutered the carriers with missiles (see Yemen) , and naval dominance is useless against railroads.
Chinese play chess while we play checkers.
You realize that railroad link goes away in about 5 seconds once a couple of sections of it are cratered, right? Israel, or anyone else, could do that in an afternoon. That's 1940s-level technology.
DeleteNow try bombing an ocean closed.
Under sane conditions railroads are very efficient.
ReplyDeleteUnder 3 letter troublemakers and Mossad remember the SNIP The Crimean Bridge (Russian: Крымский мост, romanized: Krymskiy most, IPA: [ˈkrɨmskʲij most]; Ukrainian: Кримський міст, romanized: Krymskyi mist), also called Kerch Strait Bridge or Kerch Bridge, is a pair of parallel bridges, one for a four-lane road and one for a double-track railway, spanning the Kerch Strait between the Taman Peninsula of Krasnodar Krai in Russia and the Kerch Peninsula of Crimea.
Under sabotage and various mostly drone attacks to damage Russia's ability to keep Crimea.
Expect more troubles from the professional troublemakers.
Nuclear material, including weapons, have an isotope fingerprint unique to every reactor.
ReplyDeleteAny weapon Iran bought and set off as a demonstration would have been traceable to the owner and reactor the material came from in about 5 minutes, and then the cat's out of the bag.
Secondly, that saw cuts in both directions.
Precedent having been stupidly established, expect that Ukraine would have a similar cache of such weapons in about 7 seconds after it transpired that Russia had sold one to Iran.
Even money they would come from Israel.
Who'd be laughing next, once Moscow's survival was linked to Tel Aviv's?
Moscow, knowing that, would be likelier to sell Iran one of Putin's kidneys than selling them a nuclear weapon.
The fall of USSR was a total shit-show.
DeleteI don't think Russia would admit that they couldn't account for all of their warheads. I think they run a much tighter ship now and concur with your thoughts as things are now.
Radiation does curious things to materials. I assume they have a finite life and some kind of maintenance cycle. The detonators (and there are a bunch of them) for a sub-critical, hollow ball device are very fussy and must have very precise detonation timing. Three or four of them lagging the others, if they are close together turns a "BOOM!" into a radioactive "poof".
I'd like to think that our intel is better than: "Shazam !!! we built our selves a bomb"
ReplyDelete