The Russians were twisting Trump's nose when they told him that "There are a multitude of countries willing to sell Iran nuclear warheads."
Purchasing nukes after the USSR broke up was always a much faster and cheaper way for Iran to get a handful of nuclear warheads. They could have been hidden away in a warehouse and Iranian scientists could have pretended to have invented them. They could have the prestige and been able to demonstrate a big KABOOM!
Why didn't Iran go down that road? Maybe because their plans demand far more than a handful of nuclear devices. Maybe they wanted fifty or a hundred or maybe more. You know, it was almost as if they were thinking of them as a consumable commodity.
Straits of Hormuz
Over half of China's oil comes from the Persian Gulf. Iran shutting down the Straits of Hormuz will put a lot of economic pressure on China, pressure that the ruling government cannot afford.
It seems likely that China will "suggest" that Iran make its point...and then remove their blockade. The most probable path, as seen from Eaton Rapids, is that Iran will withdraw the blockade by late-Wednesday after demonstrating they can put a cork-in-the-bottle. They will list "Humanitarian reasons" for the reversal.
Given Russia's history with Islam in general and Chechnya in specific I doubt they would sell those devices to an Islamic regime.
ReplyDeleteI do believe that there is a rail line to China. Alternative route for crude might mean a longer corking of the Straights.
ReplyDeleteI suspect the Straits of Hormuz situation will continue until Israel humbles themselves and stops attacking Iran.
ReplyDeleteChina has established the silk road to Iran and doesn't need the Straits.
Now I do have concerns that a false flag situation will suddenly occur to try to force Trump into Israels war.
Israel has very good German made Dolphin Class Submarines.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dolphin-class_submarine
And they have the ability to launch a nuclear weapon.
Is there a rail line from Iran to China? Yes. Can it handle the volume of oil China needs, as well as everything else they need it to move? No. Moving oil by rail is incredibly inefficient and limited to relatively low volumes.
ReplyDeleteBack in the 90's there were persistent rumors of Iraq trying to buy nukes from the USSR, and Saudi Arabia has been open about their efforts to buy them. I doubt a country would openly sell at this point - but individuals may; it was a fear of the west in the 90's that corrupt Russians would sell nukes to Iraq or somewhere else (and also the subject of many novels, several of which I read at the time).
Jonathan
For 2023 (the last year that I can find), the main exporters of oil to China are Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Malaysia (and it is theorized some of the oil from Malaysia is actually rebranded from Iran, to avoid U.S. Sanctions). Three of those countries (3.25 if you count some oil from Malaysia that has been rebranded) would be impacted by a closure of the Straits of Hormuz.
ReplyDeleteAdditionally, closing the Straits puts pressure not just on importing countries, but on their neighbors that use the Straits to generate income as well. I cannot imagine the Saudis, UAE, Kuwaitis, or Iraqis will take well to a long term closure as it costs them money as well.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61843