According to Bazerman, Neale and Lewicki*, there are five biases or mind-sets that sabotage effective negotiations. These observations were written in 1983, so they are widely known and widely ignored.
Grandstanding...escalates conflict and polarization in negotiation when a firm public position is taken prior to negotiation. There is little room for anything but escalation since a retreat from or a change in the public position will be perceived as weakness and failure.
Public opinion is toxic to negotiation. Even when there is significant overlap in "acceptable" solutions, the rank-and-file shareholders will not accept any solution until both teams of negotiators pound each other to pulp. The rank-and-file's perception is that their negotiator could have "done better if they had tried harder" unless they cross the finish line totally spent and depleted.
...bias due to the setting of a referent point (the benchmark by which gains or losses are determined) along the same lines as their public target goals, so that negotiators come to negotiation with a posture that fosters risk-seeking attitudes, making it less likely that a settlement will be reached.
...overconfident regarding the belief that their position will prevail, they will not be cooperative in pursuing other, more creative options conducive to a settlement
...inability or unwillingness to perceive the interests, aims, and needs of the other party has a bearing on rational negotiations, since a negotiator unable or unwilling to understand the other party's perspectives is not likely to bargain realistically.
...view that there is a 'fixed pie' (the gains of one party will mean loss for the other) also inhibits the development of creative options that yield maximal joint benefits.
Looking at the budget negotiations and the government shutdown, Schumer is between a rock and a hard place. He has the uber-liberals barking at his heels. Occasional-Cortex will probably beat him in the 2028 Primaries. The other side owns the 80% side of most of the 80-20 issues.
The other side of the aisle the 80% side of most of the 80-20 issues. The only thing that can derail the 2028 elections are the economy. A 40 day government shut-down does not weaken their position as much as it hurts Schumer's side.
It is my opinion that we are already in a recession even though reporting agencies and MSM claim we are not. Driving around, I see more and more "toys" and vehicles parked by the road with For Sale signs in the windshields. Recession-denial will make it drag on and impact the 2028 elections.
Prolonged recessions are akin to amputating a leg one inch at a time. The dead-wood and non-performing assets are given CPR since they are stage-props. Resources that could be invested in productive enterprises are frozen in those dead-man-walking companies and the real economy is moribund.
A 40-day shutdown would speed the collapse of the housing prices, especially in the hyper-inflated Maryland-northern Virginia market and would restore some sanity in lending. All of the "important" people on the east and west coasts will suddenly be talking about the recession when they lose 20% of the assessed value on their $5.7M mansion.
*Heuristics in Negotiation - Limitations to Effective Dispute Resolution (From Negotiating in Organizations, P 51-67, 1983, Max H Bazerman and Roy J Lewicki, ed.
My demands for all candidates are pretty simple. 1) If you don't like what the current situation is - fix it. 2) If you can't fix it for whatever reason - don't make it worse. 3) If you can't do either 1 or 2, drop out of race.
ReplyDeletePretty simple expectations.
A well thought out bit of logic Joe for looking at our WHAT Number Shutdown it this again?
ReplyDeletePity extremists are not prone to logic. See the French Revolution where their "Leaders" went from the "Incorruptible" Maximilien Robespierre to suddenly shot in the face wounded and getting the "National Haircut" aka a date with Madam Guillotine.
We are in serious trouble. We've a government bought by AIPAC, running military operations for that best ally ever and spending borrowed and faked money all across the globe for "Our Democracy" that the extremists promote.
If Iran doesn't play along and shut off its air defenses like last time our support Israel event will look like the Hothi's vs US Navy 3.0 and frankly our "STRONG MILITARTY" is part and parcel of our keeping World Reserve Currency status.
That and a probable failure in forcing Venezuela into submission is also a major failure in the order of Afghanistan 2.0
Hubris and her bitchy sister consequences is coming for dinner, and they are pissed.
Might want to do some thinking how civilians survive chaos.
We can use the information even if senior congresscritters don't.
DeleteThe part about not taking issues public meshes well with Matt 18:15,16. The "three good witnesses" is also in the Old Testament.
Even then they knew that committees were ineffective and public sentiment was even worse.
How many Senators need to be hung in order to get a balanced budget?
DeleteOK Joe I am completely baffled by your response.
DeleteHelp an old Medic understand.
Grim chuckle, Peter just posted this, and it fits all too well to my concerns mentioned above.
ReplyDeletehttps://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2025/10/a-timebomb-waiting-to-go-off.html
And the MONEY SHOT:
Get as many as possible of these building blocks in place before worrying about what the stock market is doing. Only when you've achieved that should you worry about things you can't control.
Yep, late 2006 and all through 2007 into 2008 there were lots of toys for sale on the roadside. Part of that was early because of Delta Airlines woes. (My community was once known as the "Delta Ghetto") On the other side sales at my antique store are down 9% this year. Last time that happened was the third year of Trump's presidency. Times were good and people bought new stuff. I think it is like the 2006 -07 period. Overbuilding warehouse and AI faciliities. Market exhuberance. Good time to knock down debt if you have any. Too late to buy gold. Maybe silver. Roger
ReplyDeleteThe time to buy gold will be when the stock market craps out and investors have to sell gold to cover their margin shortfall. Roger
ReplyDeletethought I'd share how the local Rep is spinning this."
ReplyDeleteYou may be aware that we in the midst of a government shutdown, which means that funding has run out to pay for the government functions we all rely upon. Due to Republican policies that have created a health care crisis, the country now finds itself in a government shutdown that never had to happen. Their extreme policies, such as slashing Medicaid and refusing to extend the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Premium Tax Credits, are putting Ohio families at risk.
The failure to extend ACA Premium Tax Credits means higher costs for families who rely on the Marketplace for coverage, including 29,000 families in Ohio’s 13th Congressional District who will see their premiums rise by $720 on average, according to the House Budget Committee Minority. On top of that, cuts to Medicaid threaten critical care for seniors, children, and working families who depend on it most. Unfortunately, these cuts will hurt Ohio’s 13th District more than other communities as our local economy is heavily dependent on healthcare systems that rely on Medicaid and Medicare reimbursements to pay for our health care services."
We were in a recession for most of the Biden years, but they didn't admit it so it wasn't dealt with (and huge amounts of government printed money in the attempt to hide it).
ReplyDeleteDon't forget that we have lots and lots of local and regional economies making up the national one - some of those are doing well and some aren't.
Approaching the economy as a single national item in my mind oversimplifies the problem and hides/ ignores substantial variation.
Jonathan