Friday, October 10, 2025

Greed ==> Fear

 

A Black Willow (Salix nigra), a medium sized, wetland tree that is native to the eastern North America

The trunk

Another picture of the trunk

Willow wood doesn't have a lot of uses. It makes a poor firewood-stick.

However, charcoal made from willow is very useful for applications that require rapid ignition and combustion, applications like pyrotechnics. The individual cells in the wood are very small and exceedingly thin-walled. That results in charcoal with a great deal of surface-area for a given weight. 

Another thing about those thin, fragile charred walls is that they don't take a long time to mill down to a very fine dust which has even greater surface area. 

Nose-ring Theory

An essay posted on ZeroHedge

Nose rings are used in livestock to control their behaviors. It is Orwellian that Feminists seized upon nose-rings as a sign of "not-being-controlled". Historically, a nose-ring indicated that the animal was somebody's property.

Every time I see anybody with a nose ring I cringe, thinking about all the boogers and snot it catches. I also see it as debased, self-mutilization and am mystified when the victims insist that it empowers them.

Bond markets puking

The "market" is much like a bunch of drunks in a small boat. The drunks lurch from one side of the boat to the other as the boat precariously tips first one way then the other.

Greed-to-fear, fear-to-greed. Over and over again.

Greed makes us (and the captains piloting the vehicles we invest in) risk seeking.

Fear makes us risk adverse.

The market is rapidly tipping from a "Greed" dominated, risk-seeking posture to "Fear" dominated, risk-avoiding.

Two large bankruptcies are in the daily news cycle. One commonality is that the collateral they used to secure the loans (bonds) they needed to continue their daily business were "impaired". In fact, they were much more impaired than anybody outside the C-suite realized.

Impaired: 

  • Fraudulent. 
  • Promised as collateral to multiple parties without their knowledge. 
  • Income not realized represented as having been realized
  • Inventory not yet received or produced pledged as if it actually existed
  • Vapor
  • Wishes
  • Flatulence 

As the tide recedes, we will soon learn that many of the swimmers are naked. The shredding of the bond market will accelerate. More companies will go into reorganization.

If you have any "funds" in your portfolio that have "high income" in their name, this is a great time to liquidate a portion of them and move those funds to choices that have the words "high quality" in their name. 

Computer issues

Yep. I still have them.

7 comments:

  1. Very funny to see you comment on something as mundane as a nose ring as "Orwellian" given the administration you support.

    As a great scientist once said: "Your boos mean nothing, I've seen what makes you cheer".

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    1. Good morning Gary: I see you are all bright-eyed and bushy-tailed this morning.

      It gives me joy that my blog holds such enduring appeal to you, one of my more progressive readers.

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    2. I always saw them as an FU to boomers. I also see them as unreliable people in terms of hiring. I want people that like themselves to work with me. It was once a criteria for my wife. Roger

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    3. Nose rings are just self mutualization to show conformity and obedience to a political/social/religious cult. Man buns, orange hair and other facial piercings are other identifications of conformity and surrender of independent beliefs and motivations. ---ken

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  2. Your bond market analysis is dead on. I have been telling friends and family to get out of those and I am sending your posting on to them to show it just ain't me that feels that way. ---ken

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  3. Seems that I recall that my high return fund in 2000 or shortly ther e after was a harbinger of what was coming in the stock market. In that time frame my meager investments were reduced by half. Roger

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  4. Black willow makes a good rooting hormone. I use it to propagate milkweed cuttings.

    ReplyDelete

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