In mechanical and electrical systems, "step changes" often lead to unwanted excursions in the system. Typical "fixes" include gradual or multi-step changes to the system like "soft-start" on electrical motors. For the non-nerds, starting an electric motor stresses the entire system as the current and torque of an AC motor at zero rpm is typically 2X to 3X the running values and it beats the system to death.
A crude, home-baked version of "soft-start" is to have at least one resistor-switch pair wired in series with the inductive load. Then, at timed increments, to flip a switch that is in parallel to the resistor to shunt the current around the resistor. That is, to bypass it.
That limits the in-rush current and the (nearly proportional) torque at start-up.
Mechanical systems use things like rubber-bumpers at the end of spring travel and various types of shock-absorbers.
Juvenile/adult justice system
There are many major problems with our justice system. One of those problems is that juveniles who have many encounters with the justice system get a false sense of "they can't do anything to me". They are "trained" to believe that they are not accountable for anything. If you figure that a person's values are pretty much frozen by the time they are 20, then nearly all of the time when a kid's life could be turned around has pretty much been wasted.
The proposal on the table is to create two additional classes or categories between "juvenile" and "adult". Additionally, crimes that occur in those two categories WILL be visible to the people making sentencing decisions at the next-older level.
The categories roughly mimic the educational system which funnel kids from Elementary school to Middle school to High school. "Professional Educators" justify these divisions by the changes in biology and brain-development. Juvy 2.0 would be from ages 12-to 14 (inclusive) and Adult 0.0 would be from ages 15-to-17 (inclusive).
Using the death-rate by homicide of black male victims as a proxy for the age of the perpetrator of violent crimes, the "ramp up" looks like this:
Age Rate
11 2.1/100k
12 4.0
13 6.6
14 17.5
15 34.2
16 55.9
17 86.7
18 117.5
19 125.2 (Peak)
20 119.9
21 120.2
Adult 0.0
The fact that the growth-rate flattens out at age 19 is weak-evidence that the adult justice system provides some deterrence to crime.
Of course, another big problem with our justice system is that many judges refuse to exercise the penalties that are available. Felons known to have no inhibitions against using violence against others are released willy-nilly back into the community. And the people of those communities suffer the cost of that violence. This proposal will have no impact on that cause.
And before you accuse me of being "racist" for my choice of data, understand that many of the 831 black men ages 12-17 (inclusive) who were murdered in 2023 would be alive today if such a system was in place.
---Added in response to a question in the comments---
 |
| NED, not enough data. Sample size too small for high-confidence statistics. Death-rate per 100k due to homicide. |
Some time back, an older gentleman told me that the word "teenagers" was made up as part of the cultural revolution of the 1960's. Before that there were "children" and "adults".
ReplyDeleteEveryone was a child until they earned the right to be called, and treated as, an adult. In simpler terms, act like an adult and people will start to treat you as an adult.
Pretty sure that if someone commits murder (acts like a non-child) and society punishes them in a capital way, the solution will be better for society.
Milton
Brain development justice. How about trying to factor in the typical liberal Judge talking about "not punishment but rehabilitation" of frequent fliers in the violent criminal type.
ReplyDeleteSorry Joe, at one time families provided the basics of good behavior with the wooden spoon and belt. Don't make OUR FAMILY Look Bad stuff. Long gone due to tolerance and taking "Care" of poor people with welfare.
At one time people that acted poorly in civilized society were outcasts and didn't get a chance to reoffend and or make babies across an array of single mons seeking MORE Welfare money.
Culture changed to the single mom with MANY Baby Daddies living generation to generation ON THE SAME System AND GLORIFYING the THUG Culture with rappers and such.
Maybe because I've worked EMS for so many decades and seen the not so gradual loss of civility and frequent fliers of abuse and drugs I have less interest in tolerance.
It's not just black culture, it's the culture of trash when the basics of live and let live, stay in your lane and treat folks like you want to be treated that has reduced this country into almost NO GO Zones like parts of Muslim infested Europe.
If you have an infestation of rats, do you attempt to judge their brain development in order to determine what of them are socially redeemable or do you use barriers to keep them out of YOUR Stuff (Fleeing to the country vs the blue hive cities) or eliminate the problem as to stay ahead of their breeding habits?
Fun to discuss the subtle differences over coffee, friend. But as I've experienced as EMS, when it's a face to face scenario it's a dangerous animal situation.
Milton: In pre-Industrial times we were organized into farms and very small villages on the order of 120-to-240 people. Everybody knew everybody within their village. It was very easy to judge each person based on their maturity.
DeleteThat is not the case. We artificially broke it down into extremely different sets of outcomes based on calendar age for lack of a better metric. The toggle between one set of outcomes and the other is a place where instabilities can happen.
Michael: My quibble is not that you are wrong. It is that many of the points you make are states that cannot be addressed directly. Consequently, it would take generations (maybe) to move the needle. If "smoothing" the consequence menu were done, we would likely see improvement in three years. And yes, I am pulling the three-year number out of my rearmost orifice.
I am praying that the EBT stopping 1st Nov doesn't happen to TEST your thought process.
DeleteThe political "game" of "Chicken" has been getting crazier every cycle. Is Chaos on the menu, I wonder.
Chaos has a habit of moving that needle pretty fast.
Guess we'll know if the EBT river is crossed aka Caeser and Alea iacta est in about 10 days.
The death-rate by homicide chart is a sad looking piece of evidence about what the Great Society built. I wonder what the numbers look like for people with different colored skin?
ReplyDeleteMaybe tomorrow. Things are hopping around here and I am pinned down.
DeleteCheck the bottom of this post. I think that is the data you are looking for. 2018-to-2023 data.
DeleteThank you. The numbers speak for themselves...
DeleteWorking in foster care, I found judges and referees ignoring delinquent behavior because the foster care kid was “ already in the system”.
ReplyDeleteAbove comment incomplete. I remember being as shocked as the 17 year old boy who had a history of assaulting staff and just getting “ time outs” or “ loss of privileges ” getting convicted on adult assault charges. The jurist agreed that was a big jump and sentenced him as a juvenile.
ReplyDeleteA society that refuses to punish crime and protect the useful members while coddling the violent parasites deserves to die. And our society is dying. We have nobody to blame but ourselves.
ReplyDeleteERJ and Michael both have good points. I am within days of my 80th birthday and can remember when it became illegal? or at least in appropriate to name minors in news reports of crimes or misdemeanors. I remember the three stages of my childhood: seven of my 'Piaget' years in an orphanage, four as a 'wild' child on the streets, and the last four in a quasi reform school. Learned some but not enough as jaw jacking by judges and social workrrs doesn't really hurt. At 18 yo, I joined the Army and was promptly introduced to physical discipline and got my head straightened out.Learned that nothing teaxhes like a bad experience.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't this push for teenagers having less responsibility for their acts go directly against allowing them to select transgender surgery or having an abortion on their own say? I wonder if the progressives pushing for this realize they may also be affecting these other "rights" that the progressives insist on.
ReplyDeleteAnnon @1:50 brings up a good point. Back in the day we all knew troubled boys who were given the option of detention or the military. A lot of those guys that went to the military found their way and became productive members of society. I guess with the all volunteer military that might not work, but it did for a lot of wayward guys. Knew a couple high performers early in my career that it worked for.
ReplyDeleteIdaho Bob
There is a book I read many years ago - Iron John. It was an anthropologic look at becoming a man. The author went through many cultures and their transitions from boy to man and noted the common characteristics: the transition had to be guided by a man. The transition was always painful in some fashion.
ReplyDeleteI note that removing dad's stopped the transition in this country and possibly, the military provided a surrogate dad for some to make it.