Warm weather for December

The weird weather continues.

The violets are not complaining.  Blossoms make a classy addition to any salad.  The leaves thicken soups much like gumbo.

Oyster mushrooms

These are growing right out of the top of the stump.

Short-nonexistent stem, long gills, late autumn, on poplar-or-willow.  It is a pity that nobody in our house is a big mushroom eater.

Blackberry leaves.  Good source of Vitamin C during the winter.

A little science project

I wondered if the seeds I planted last week would be able to shatter the clay clods.  I decided to run an experiment.

I mixed five grams of Maximilian Sunflower seeds with 300 grams of dried, clumping cat litter.  I split the batch in two.  Half the batch I treated in the normal manner.  That is, I mixed with water and formed Rum Balls.

The other half was mixed with an equal volume of 17% protein hog feed.  My thinking was that the corn based feed would disintegrate more quickly in the weather and that the decomposing protein would fertilize the young seedlings.  Water was added to the clay/hog feed mix until a moldable consistency was reached.

You can see the larger corn particles.  One downside of this approach is that it may increase predation by rodents.

Rum balls were placed in a standard flat on top of commercial potting soil.  Short red plastic markers were placed by the baseline rum balls.

Close up of a baseline rum ball and weed trimmer string marker.

The flat will be left outside over the winter and germination success will be evaluated about June 1, 2016.

+0.25% A little bit of context

The big economic news today is that the Fed will be raising the discount rate 0.25% after six years of lowering the rates.

This post is to put a little bit of context around that move.

These decisions are not made in a vacuum.  Two of the signals that receive much scrutiny are the unemployment rate and the civilian labor participation rate.  I took the liberty of plotting 10X the unemployment rate (Red) and the 1X civilian labor participation rate (Blue) on the same chart.  Both plots are "unadjusted for seasonal variation".

The rise in civilian participation rate from 60% in 1968 to 68% in 1980 is likely due to increasing numbers of women entering the labor force.

The seasonal variation takes a marked decrease starting in the 1990s.  Here is a closer look.

Distance peak-to-trough decreased by approximately 50% in the 1990s.

Likely contributions include the implementation of NAFTA in 1994.  Much agriculture work moved south of the border where wages were lower and environmental regulations were less restrictive.  Another factor may be the increased fixed costs of hiring made it uneconomical to employ people for temporary jobs. Another large source of temporary jobs involve infrastructure projects like roads and bridges and spending on those kinds of projects slowed down in the '90s. Finally, most seasonal jobs are "marginal" in terms of return to the enterprise.  These would be among the first jobs to be eliminated when belt tightening.

Reposted for convenience.

Perhaps the most significant issue is that the two lines are extremely decoupled. This paradox contributed to the Fed's analysis-paralysis. One would intuitively expect a corresponding decrease in the civilian labor participation when the unemployment rate is high.  That is just not in these numbers.

One explanation might be that unemployment is not the only way folks can leave the labor market.

Employees can go on disability.  Employees can retire.  Both of these are popular options if it looks like you are about to be permanently pink slipped.  Conversely, one person might delay their retirement plans if their partner was laid off.

Another factor is that the recruitment pipeline can dry up.  A person cannot be counted as having left the labor market via "unemployment" if they never worked.  I know one young person who was distraught to learn that they could not collect unemployment because they had never worked.  It is not just young people who overlook this fact.

The issue of air bubbles in the job recruitment pipeline is one of the most under-reported stories of the economy.  The decrease in seasonal variation that started in the 1990s may also be part of the air bubble story.  Seasonal work used to be a common path to full time employment. 

Unemployment is self extinguishing

The unemployed person automatically falls off the rolls after a period of time.  A high unemployment rate is self extinguishing.  Legally, the unemployed person is supposed to be looking for work while unemployed.  That is not rigorously enforced.  Employers are loath to hire an employee if they believe the employee will leave the instant they are called back by the original employer.  Also, it is tough to get motivated about looking for a minimum wage job when you were laid off from a job that paid 2X minimum wage.

Why rates were dropped in the first place

One major reason the rates were dropped is that bank regulators required that banks increase their "loan loss reserves" in 2008/2009.  In the fractional banking system, each dollar "telescopes" and is loaned out several times.  Consequently, injecting one dollar into the economy increases the "liquidity" of the economy by much more than one dollar.  Small changes in the reserve requirement have a huge effect on the actual number of dollars sloshing around in the real economy.

A second factor is that the bank's assets were in tatters because they had been marking-to-fantasy rather than marking-to-market.  The collapse of the housing market left banks with a balance sheet heavy with non-performing loans and properties that could not be sold to cover the loan.

These two factors were causing the economy to lock up.  There was simply no credit.  Banks could not make new loans as they complied with mandated increases in the loss reserves and their nonperforming loans were a black hole for money.

The Fed made a series of very aggressive interest rate reductions to inject more liquidity into the system and to give the banks time to heal.

Guests, like fish, start to stink after three days

People and companies became addicted to low interest rates.  The Fed probably kept the rates too low for too long.  One characteristic of rates that are too low is the misallocation of assets.  People start investing in goofy things...growing oranges in Minnesota, building office space where there is no organic demand, unproven sources of green energy.

Another factor that is coming into play is that the Chinese want the renminbi to be a World Reserve Currency.  That is a direct challenge to the US dollar.  The country that "prints" the World Reserve Currency holds some huge economic advantages.  Countries that want to buy oil and other goods denominated in dollars must sell commodities, goods and services to the US....but cannot use those dollars to make claims against the US economy.  That is, they give us "stuff" for dollars they they do not use (in the United States).

Loss of World Reserve Currency status would result in all of those dollars currently cycling between the Persian Gulf and China (and elsewhere) would race back home and be redeemed.  That would trigger a vicious round of inflation as holders of dollars tried to turn their dollars into tangible commodities before everybody else did the same.

Now that there is a credible threat to the hegemony of the US Dollar, the Fed has to "defend" the dollar to demonstrate that the United States Government is committed to preserving the purchasing power of the dollar.

Inexpensive Athletic Equipment (Christmas Gifts)

Belladonna has fallen in with an outstanding bunch of young people at college.  One of the things they do is lift weights.  They are STRONG.  They break things without even trying.

Belladonna continued her "circuit" when she was home for Thanksgiving.  I went with her once to keep her company.  I could not keep up.

One of her exercises was to throw a medicine ball.  She started in a berry-picker position and lobbed it over her head and it landed behind her.

I thought buying her a medicine ball would be a spiffy Christmas gift until I saw the price.  They cost almost $50.  I decided that a homemade gift was in order, especially when I remembered that the medicine ball she was using was starting to leak from the pounding it was taking.

Recycled laundry detergent jug.  Recycled garden hose.  New rope.

This is what the inside of the jug looks like.  You cannot really see it but the rope "X" from left side of nearest handle to right side of farthest handle...and so on.  Part of making this durable is to ensure that the ends of the hose are beneath the level of the concrete.  That way, the sharp edges and corners of the concrete are bearing against the hose instead of sawing against the rope.

Pretty good rope.  Fifty feet for $13.  That is enough rope for about twelve copies of this weight.

Mix up a little bit of concrete for a bit less than eight cents a pound.

Add concrete.  I used a piece of scrap lumber to spread the handles but I don't know if that is necessary.  

This is a 175 ounce jug and should weigh about 28 pounds (12.5kg) when filled with concrete.  A one gallon jug will weigh about 20 pounds and a half gallon jug (64 ounces) pr a two liter bottle will weigh about 10 pounds after being filled with concrete.  It looks like I can crank these out for about $2 each.

Bella may not want to be seen in public with one of these, but they will be plenty good enough for putting divots into the pasture out back.

Proud of Kubota today

Kubota was being tormented by one of those "tools" who think they can gain cachet by hectoring other students.  The tool was using words that get managers fired from Fortune 500 companies.

Kubota told him to "Stop".  The tool took that as encouragement.  It meant his needling was getting to Kubota.  The names became more vile.

Then Kubota shoved the miscreant.

The school frowned upon that response.  They are sorting through the sequence of events.  The idiot was loud enough that there were many, many witnesses.  Heck, the whole point of the show, from the idiot's perspective, was "Look at how brave I am, poking the bear in the cage."

Kubota will have consequences.  He did not follow the official school policy, "See something, say something."

I am proud that Kubota showed restraint 

I believe he could have turned the tool into a greasy spot on the pavement.  A "push" is a pretty gentle escalation.

I think Kubota is aware that following official policy just makes bullies sneaky.  Official policy requires the commitment of resources to investigate.  Official policy bears the burden of finding solid evidence.  It is an unwieldy tool to address every abrasion and friction that young people experience in their coming of age.

A push sends a message.  It tells the aggressor that he cannot hide behind technicalities and procedures.  A push tells the aggressor "I am holding you accountable."  It tells the aggressor that the victim is willing to face censure if that is the price of justice.

Bullies depend on victim's silence.  Bullies depend on the collusion of shame, both in their victims and the witnesses.

That push shattered the curtain of silence.

Kubota will have consequences.  Wisdom entails know when an action is worth the consequences it will trigger.

Basic Science

There is still basic science that needs to be done that is within the reach of any moderately intelligent person.

Some of the most fundamental questions have not been asked.  Either that, or developing the data was judged to be too tedious or to difficult to pursue.

How far can you walk?

Recently, I have been asking folks to estimate what percentage of United States citizens can walk 3 miles in less than two hours.  Estimates ranged from 15% to 90%.  The center-of-mass for the estimates seems to be 65%.  That means that 35% of the population either could not, or would not walk 3 miles.  (Note:  Non-functional footwear was mentioned as a "deal breaker" with regard final outcomes.)

I submit that being able to break the population down into percentiles based on how far they can walk is a crucial piece of data when evacuating people or setting up aid stations after a disaster.  Ability to walk is also a marker for overall health status.

The ability to walk is not trivial.  One source states:

...walking speed is the sixth vital sign.   ..data on normative walking speeds...are sparse.  Walking is a complex functional task that requires full body support, correct timing, power, balance and coordination.  Walking places high demands on the brain, spinal cord, muscles, joints, lungs and heart...

Sadly, information that fleshes out the "least capable" end of the curve is simply not available.

A search on the internet reveals a dearth of information.  The small amount of information that is available is on the "fit" end of the curve.  It may be no surprise but people who find it painful to walk seldom volunteer to walk to the point of exhaustion.  For example, this study selected its subjects by randomly mailing solicitations to subscribers of Walking Magazine.

Public transportation agencies have rules-of-thumb regarding the spacing between stops and the maximum allowable size of a "watershed" feeding a bus or train station.  This is primarily based on empirical data.  Increasing the size of the "watershed" is subject to the law of diminishing returns with regard to increased ridership.  In part, this is why bus routes depleted rail ridership.  The economics of bus routes makes it much easier to create a network while the economics of rail leaves large "chunks" under served.

Proxies

Walking-to-exhausting requires time, facilities and a willing subject base.  Most researchers opt to measure self-selected walking speed as a proxy for fitness.  Walking speed can be measured nearly instantaneously and it can be collected by observing subjects "in-the-wild".  One piece of basic research that would be valuable would be to map walking speeds of 12th%, 50th% and 88th% (Gaussian Integration points) speeds to maximal walking distances.  This could be done with as few as nine women and nine men.  At $20 (stipend) a piece, that comes to basic science being advanced for the princely sum of $360.

Gates

One of the challenges to collecting data is to find a gate that the "least fit" will pass through.  One suggestion is to collect data at "Dollar Stores", Walmart and The Secretary of State.

People who are less physically fit are often less wealthy.  "Dollar Stores" minimize filtering of the "least fit" end of the curve because they offer lower prices and, typically, less travel distance than most other shopping options.

Walmart is the single largest retailer in the United States and may be the single most representative source of data on the US population.

The Secretary of State is where one must go if one wishes to drive.  That includes EVERYBODY except the most pathologically obese.

If the Internet can be trusted, there are "apps" that can be downloaded to smartphones that mimic radar guns.  Some of the apps are specifically for data collection.  The primary audience for these apps is to collect stats on athletes like pitchers, golf swings, etc.  Collecting data would involve setting up the smartphone and triggering it every time a customer approached the door.

It is mind boggling, but nobody has a handle on how "non fit" the least capable 25% of the American public truly is.  Suppose we learned that a nuclear device was to detonate in the center of a densely populated city within two hours.  Suppose that any prospect of survival involved being at least three miles from the point of detonation.

How many would make it?

Motivation through empowerment

A bin that has internal dimensions of 5' x 5' x 5' is filled with wheat at $1 a bushel.  Assume a 5% cartage fee

1. How much money will the farmer net when he sells the wheat to the elevator?  
2. If the farmer buys the wheat back from the elevator, how much must he pay?

There is much lamentation regarding the educational attainment of black men.

One common refrain is:

More black men go to prison than go to college.

A major part of the issue involves lack of motivation during high school.  As Yogi Berra noted, "If people don't show up, you can's stop them."

The drop-out rate for young black men is higher than it is for young white men.  Presumably, physical truancy is higher.  Even when they show up, many of them are mentally disengaged.

Young, urban black men see "modern" education as a waste of time.  They see no more relevance to their universe than most readers saw in the farming problem described at the top of this essay.  IF you have the slightest interest in agriculture you know that one bushel is 1.25 cubic feet.  Knowing that, the problem is simple enough to do in your head.  The answers are $95 when selling and $105 when buying. 

Not only is the curriculum irrelevant, but vast swaths of the education delivery system is controlled by defanged, feminized Nazis whose only option is suspension. When your only tool is a hammer every problem looks like a nail.

A real life example

I once had to endure a parent-teacher conference where the instructor (a student teacher) was reduced to stuttering gibberish.  She required that students get her attention by raising their right hand, the upper arm parallel with the floor and the upper arm perpendicular to the floor, arm motionless, wrist rotating the palm of their hand tracking her like a radar dish as she waltzed around the room.  She allowed the student to talk only when she was pointing at them.

My son made the mistake of expressing his opinion of her requirements.  Frankly, his opinion closely mirrored mine.  He made the mistake of expressing them loudly enough for her to hear.  He used what are politely known as "barn words".  Hence the parent-teacher conference.

Solutions

Once upon a time, sports was a major motivator.  There was glory in playing on the school team.  A career in the pros was seen as a viable career path. It was a  venue where the disenfranchised could excel and earn respect. In a word, they could be empowered.

This solution is less accessible than it used to be.  Sports have become more competitive.  Schools have become larger.  Equipment is more expensive.  The days of a junior "walking on" and starring are over.

One solution that I have never see mentioned is to start a "Shooting Club".  Kids in the inner-city see the usefulness of guns.  Guns are relevant.  Guns are empowering.

What was your reaction?

If you were horrified by the idea of starting high school shooting clubs in the inner-city, then you might be a racist.

I wonder how many folks are anti-gun because it is a politically acceptable way to manifest what is inherently a racist bias.  Black men are seen as bumbling buffoons until you put a ball or a gun in their hands.  Then they are respected as (expendable) gladiators or as world-class threats.

It is racist to perpetuate a system that guarantees that black men will remain "bumbling buffoons".  It is racist to automatically reject any proposal that might empower young black men and give them a better future...even if it is just a few of them.

Ironically, all sports are derivatives of war skills.  It is a way to hone those skills without decapitating tomorrow's foot soldiers and generals.

Shooting sports teach safety.  They teach equipment care.  They teach marksmanship.  There really is zero tolerance for unsafe behaviors....like pointing the gun anywhere near a living person.

Shooting clubs can teach physics (ballistics), metallurgy, chemistry, machinery repair.  They can teach industrial engineering and economics.  The thing is that shooting sports motivate because it shows that learning is the path to empowerment.  What is not to like?

Good Stories

Good stories, the really good stories, invariably depend on an ever growing series of "unfortunate decisions".  The story is most delicious, for the readers, when the "smuck" is somebody who prides them self on being prudent and making wise decisions.

The best writers slowly build tempo.  Each stupid decision is revealed in its own time and the reader is prepared for the climax by foreshadowings woven into the tale.  Like a beleaguered ship cresting a massive wave, the writer teases the reader with a tantalizing bit of relief before revealing the next, even more massive wave.

Not being a very good writer, I will simply share that I found myself, late Sunday night, standing in the rain without a baseball cap, 85 miles from home.  My car had a dead alternator, a dead battery and I was holding a flip phone that refused to transmit audio.  Did I mention that I had less than a quarter tank of gas and I needed to pee?

Heroes

The hero of this story is my brother who had a 6:00 AM start this morning.

He found me by voodoo given the fact that my audio transmissions were garbled.

He brought tools.

We used jumper cables for 40 minutes.  We left it on a long time because we were not sure about the connection to my battery.  The terminal lugs on my Malibu are pretty rusty.

After charging the battery for 40 minutes we were only able to drive seven miles down the road.  At least we did not made it to the freeway before it went sideways again.

We (he) removed the battery.  He dragged me to his home.  He put the battery on the charger for "over night".  He plied me with Old Fitzgerald Bourbon (for medicinal purposes).

This guy was having a bad day.  He shattered his spleen.  This is a common result when you reach to pick up the bag of "weed" (or purse) that slid  off the passenger seat.  You go off the road and hit the proverbial immovable object.  Your body slides under the airbag and the bottom of the steering wheel whacks the left side of your rib cage.  Note, left-and-right are flipped.

He also gave me a picture book to look at.  I felt much luckier than the folks shown in the picture book.

In the morning, my extroverted and radiantly cheerful sister-in-law dropped me off at nine in the morning next to the Malibu.  I dropped the battery into the car and uneventfully drove home.  Incidentally, I was getting four Hail Marys to the mile.  I counted.

After Action Report

Pride is the first of the Seven Deadly Sins.  I should have tucked my tail between my legs and bolted for home the first time the Battery light flickered on.  But I did not.

Family is awesome.

Biding my time so I could drive home in the light (no need for headlights) and when it was not raining (no need for wipers) was a "win".  I see it as a classic case of living to fight another day.

The fuel gauge lies.  I had enough gas to make it the 85 miles.

And that is why there was no post for Sunday, December 13, 2015.