I am hearing more turkey gobbling when I am outside than I have ever heard in my life.
I am also catching far fewer raccoons and 'possum in my traps.
Raccoon populations are known to go up-and-down. The down is often caused by distemper. Distemper is very closely related to the virus that causes measles in humans and it can spread like wildfire when the raccoon population density is high or when an event like drought limits the number of food sources and the local population is concentrated at those sources. That is, the trash-dumpster at the local restaurant or the porch of "that nice lady who feeds wildlife" can become Grand Central Station for raccoons.
The virus attacks a succession of tissue types. The first tissue on the menu are the lymph nodes. Those are the organs that product the majority of the antibodies that suppress bacteria and viruses.
That entire "the population can go up and down" makes me think of the stock market. Yes Virginia, it can go down.
Seattle's economy
A report came out from the Downtown Seattle Association that claims the "Jumpstart" tax has had a chilling effect on the Seattle economy.
When passed in 2020, city leaders said Seattle’s record new “JumpStart” business taxes would generate progressive revenue from Seattle’s largest, highest-paying businesses to fund COVID-19 relief (an important need at the time), affordable housing, essential city services, long-term economic recovery and resiliency, while jumpstarting economic prosperity throughout the city.
But since 2020, what we have seen in downtown Seattle is not a “jump start”, but instead, a slowdown. Since being implemented, downtown Seattle has lost around 30,000 jobs. The office vacancy rate increased to 32% in the downtown core. And more than $10 billion in office value has been lost.
Meanwhile, in Bellevue, dating back to 2020, the city has seen more jobs come to its core, lower office vacancy, and the stability of office building values. This provides a stark tale of two cities and two tax environments just miles apart. Link
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| Direct Foreign Investment for the Greater Seattle Metro Area by year. Raw numbers look impressive (Source) |
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| The numbers are very scary after adjusting for inflation to 2015 dollars. According to Financial Times, Seattle went from #2 metro region for "Attractiveness for Foreign Investment" to #13. |
I used 3% inflation for 2015-2019 and 10% inflation for 2020-2025. You can quibble about exact inflation numbers all day long. I gave you the numbers so you can use your own, favorite inflation numbers and create your own chart.
One of the traps that growth-enterprises can fall into is that investment that is flooding in can mask the fact that the enterprise is not viable, that it is not making a "true" profit. The same thing can happen to a regional economy. Investment flooding in stimulates high-paying construction jobs and speculative real-estate feeding frenzies.
After the hysteria has run its course, the region is "over-built" and under-tenanted. The organic, home-grown business activity cannot sustain the cost of maintaining the grandiose monuments that were erected.
Seattle is also bucking a secular trend. AI is replacing a lot of coders who used to write generic code for apps. On the favorable side for Seattle, Boeing will be getting a lot of contracts to backfill losses in Iran and inventory gifted to Ukraine.
Not just Seattle
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| A breakdown of Phoenix, AZ economy |
That money has been frantically looking for parking spaces in safe-havens while the perpetual malcontents have been agitating to "get whats mine".
Thinking of one of my friends whose net-worth is in the neighborhood of $10M...what good is it to have that much money if all of the inventory of the drug-store has been stolen...either from the shelves, while in transit or at the point of manufacture?
I am not slagging him. He has properties in several different locations, including a building the small town where his wife grew up. He has many physical skills that could come in handy. What will be devastating to him will be liquidity traps if/when things go into the septic tank. Bankruptcy proceedings could take years, especially if the courts get flooded with multiple, complicated bankruptcies. Outcomes in court are politically skewed and precedent is now considered just a vague suggestion.
It's been said it's a recession if a neighbor loses his job and home. It's a depression if YOU DO.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking from historical experience and stories from my Grand Parents one set from Germany and the other resided in Kentucky a Great Depression is a worldwide event.
And my take was a "Wealthy Family" during a Great Depression was one that could keep the whole family housed, fed, employed even if it was tending chickens and being night guards in the gardens keeping critters away AND MOST of All Out of DEBT and ABLE to PAY TAXES.
Because no matter how hard you worked and what you owned BEFORE the crash IF you couldn't get enough coin of the realm to pay your debts and taxes you LOST everything at the courthouse steps to folks WITH money often guarded by the Sheriffs.
That's why so many during the Great Depression went on the road heading to anywhere with the promise of employment. They were Homeless.
"precedent is now considered just a vague suggestion"
ReplyDeleteThis is not a Bad Thing.
Precedent in law often is used incorrectly, and some idiot judges decision 100 years ago is often twisted and used by attorneys to get a decision in today's world where it really doesn't apply.
United States Cs Miller happened and set precedent for guns control, but only because Miller couldn't continue to press his case and gave up.
Precedence should never be allowed.as an argument: It is the lazy way to adjudicate. Every case should be judged on the applicable law (and the Constitution) and adjudicated on it's own merits alone.
As for the economy, we have ALWAYS lived in a Bubble: Your value, be it stocks, dollars, or gold, is only worth what someone will give you in exchange for it. You can't eat gold, dollars won't fix your diabetes. and stocks won't keep you warm.
I was thinking of the unraveling of 100 years of bankruptcy law where there was a set-order of where people stood in line in the event of reorganization or liquidation.
DeleteInvestors with loans or bonds that were secured with specific assets (like bonds that were used to buy 747 airliners for Pan-Am) were made-whole first. Then regular bonds. The last to get paid were stockholders and second-to-last were benefits promised to employees not-yet-vested.
That was upended during the Detroit and Delphi bankruptcies. People who had foregone higher rates-of-return for the safety of bonds got nothing. Hourly employees (big donors via their unions) were made-whole.
The only reason municipalities continue to issue bonds is because pension plans and insurance companies are legally mandated to include them in their portfolio. No person with a working brain would ever buy them since the words printed on them are meaningless.
true. But that sort of thing could be easily codified into law if anyone really cared.
DeleteBut they don't.
So we lurch from one "Precedent" to another without any real structure.
As long as the voting process in the state of Washington is corrupted, Seattle will never recover. Ask Dino Rossi.
ReplyDeletePedantic, but I presume Phoenix is actually AZ, not AR.
ReplyDeleteNot the least bit pedantic. Thank-you for pointing that out. I fixed it.
DeleteERJ, Seattle/Bellevue represent an interesting and perhaps unique juxtaposition. There are obviously many contiguous localities in America's large urban areas; it is much rarer to find two nearby one's that seem to at least practice such different economic policies and one where large corporations can easily move their workforces without upending their lives.
ReplyDeleteThe added bite for Seattle now (and several other large urban areas) is that current leadership is on record that they view corporations and "the rich" (the definition of "rich" may vary) as piggy banks to fund their projects. It would be hard as a board of directors or senior leadership to countenance relocation to a locale that will cost you more simply for existing; tough for individuals as well. The exodus of businesses to business friendly and tax friendly states should have been a warning to such localities; evidence suggests there is no interest in learning.
Socialist/Communist elected officials can't allow commerce to grow, influence personal liberty, and allow even those with little money to enjoy the fruits of inexpensive items created by a competitive free market. Unfortunately, those that would rather grift eventually accumulate in one area, help with the subterfuge, and are the first to find the lawless, economically destroyed area has now become their trap.
ReplyDeleteIf only Karl Marx had taken a math class...
ReplyDeleteDebt free is the way to be
ReplyDeleteI am making a good salary from home $4580-$5240/week , which is amazing under a year ago I was jobless in a horrible economy. I thank God every day I was blessed with these instructions and now its my duty to pay it forward and share it with Everyone,
ReplyDeleteHere is I started_______ Jobathome1.Com