There has been the sudden realization that the current storm of events will impact fertilizer availability and cause shocks in the food supply.
At a very fine granularity, as gardeners and food-growers, we need to pay meticulous attention to the most basic elements of gardening. We need to run a full-court press against weeds. We need to really pay attention to soil-moisture. We need to plant at optimal times and choose varieties that are productive. We need to harvest food so it is not wasted.
As gardeners we need to examine some of our biases. Will it hurt anything if we tinkle in the orchard when nobody is looking? Maybe we don't dump the chicken litter into a pile but look around and find some plants that look a little bit puny and give them a shovel-full at their drip-line.
At a very coarse granularity, vast numbers of people in Bangladesh, East Bengal, rural China, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Nigeria and Mexico will depopulate and move to cities where "services" are offered. The good news is that many jet airplanes will be grounded and the mass migration will be restricted to trains, buses and hoofing-it.
At a granularity between the two extremes, meat will be come exceptionally expensive. Various political entities will come to the conclusion that it makes more sense to send grain to the countries mentioned above than to machine-gun refugees from those countries at their(our) borders in wholesale-lots. Grain that went to chickens, pigs and steers will be diverted to Bombay, Dhaka, Lagos, Mexico City and Cairo.
Seafood will increase in price by an even greater percentage. Seafood has a very high "embedded energy" cost that is masked by fuel subsidies by nation-states. If you like meat, buy a pellet-gun and learn how to shoot it. If you like fish, then learn how to tie an Improved Clinch Knot and thread a worm on a hook.
The good news is that food is about to become much more delicious without the benefit of exotic spices. There is no sauce that makes food more delicious than hunger.
Bonus tip
Stock-pile enough sugar for a year's worth of canning.
Our biggest year for applesauce was 180 quarts. Given the amount of sweetening that I prefer, that requires 25 pounds of sugar. Even if I don't choose to can such a ridiculous amount of apple sauce, sugar will have trading value.
Characteristics of Money. Money is:
- Infinitely divisible
- Durable
- Universally accepted
- Compact
Sugar isn't "compact" but it meets the other three criteria. And even if you don't use it for trading, in time you will consume it within your household.
No fertilizer is coming out of the Persian Gulf, but the big news is that Russia just embargoed all fertilizer exports until 21 April. They are pissed at continuing Ukrainian attacks on their fertilizer plants, which the Ukrainians deceitfully claim to be part of the Russian OPK. The Russians are (now were) by far the world's largest exporter of fertilizer.
ReplyDeleteThis will be a disaster for Asia. They will scramble for American fertilizer and probably not get much. Cue the Sally Struthers commercials.
As food and oil are the two highest exports of America AND we import both (Odd oil, eh?)
ReplyDeleteA Surprising % of our Beef, COFFEE, fruits and veggies from South America BUT THEY Really get their fertilizer from the now closed Middle East so that 15% average of the American Diet is going to get expensive IF available at all.
If we don't close out our exports, then even less food AND Oil are available for Americans.
BUT then our Imports become odd as starving Asia creates Food RIOTS, and such don't export so much cheap underwear, TIRES, and Medicines and such.
A couple of grand in shelf stable foods you like to eat seems prudent as in Proverbs 27 12 The prudent see danger and take refuge, but the simple keep going and pay the penalty.
Worst case if nothing happens you get to eat it.
BTW during Bosnian Civil War, the 3 highest trade value foods was Cooking Oil, Sugar and Salt. All currently as of this afternoon are cheap.
Loss of fertilizer means loss of food. This will lead to all manner of downstream issues. Including starvation, crime and violence. Be prepared. Nothing brings out the violent beast in homo stupidicus as effectively as hunger.
ReplyDeleteIt's time to bring back green manures to enrich the soil.
ReplyDelete"As food and oil are the two highest exports of America AND we import both (Odd oil, eh?)"
ReplyDeleteAmerica's light, sweet crude is much sought after and very expensive on the international market. It is used to sweeten heavy, sour crudes such as Orinoco from Venezuela, which is much cheaper.
The economics dictate we buy Orinoco at a $ 30 per barrel discount for refineries like Chevron's which are built to process it. Refineries need some sweet crude to process Orinoco, Canadian, and Urals crudes, but their overall feedstock cost is much lower by blending. And the frackers get top dollar for their light, sweet product.
Currently America isn't actually importing any significant amount of Venezuela's Orinoco oil from Google Search.
DeleteAlso, zero American companies have taken President Trumps offer to be the new operators of Venezuela's oil operations. Chevron is reducing operations.
https://energynewsbeat.co/u-s-refiners-seek-heavy-crude-sources-after-chevrons-reduced-role-in-venezuela/
SNIP U.S. Gulf Coast refiners are facing a tightening supply of heavy crude oil as Chevron’s operational role in Venezuela diminishes, a development driven by U.S. sanctions and geopolitical shifts. With Venezuelan crude exports to the U.S. declining, refiners are scrambling to secure alternative sources to meet their blending needs.
If you have links, we are getting more please post.
SNIP As of 2025, the United States imports approximately 30-35% of its total oil consumption. This marks a significant shift from the mid-2000s when imports peaked at 60%. The major suppliers of oil to the U.S. include Canada, which supplies about 60% of all U.S. oil imports, followed by Mexico and OPEC nations.
Any bets that Mexico's oil will go to the highest bidder?
As China has a strong presence in Canada, I suspect that Canadian oil is heading east to China.
I strongly suspect that the 70's oil embargo prices (AND Problems of rationing) will be the baseline of the "New Normal" in America for some time given the DAMAGES done to the oil and gas systems so far.
Our Tar Baby War is giving us "dividends" of the unwanted kind.
Your Google Search pulled up old data. Before Maduro's sudden departure.
DeleteVenezuela's crude oil exports to the United States are approximately 284,000 barrels per day right now. About one quarter of their total production. Chevron has resumed firm control of PDVSA's exports. The remainder of which go to Chinese smalls.
Chevron Pascagoula can only refine heavy, sour crude. It was designed for Orinoco crude, but has had to source other heavy, sour crude in recent years. Think they returned to Orinoco crude immediately after Maduro's departure, if not just before. Chevron Richmond (CA) is capable of refining heavy, sour crude, including Orinoco crude, but has had to sourced other heavy, sour crude in recent years.
EPA regulation changes now pretty much require refineries designed to run heavy, sour crude to blend 10% to 25% light sweet into their feedstock. This is the practice at Marathon Detroit, which was designed for the heavy, sour Canadian tar sands crude. Even so, the the heavy crude refineries have to get rid of a lot of pet coke, which used to be a premium product but now has few homes. Sulphur disposal used to be a problem, but is in high demand right now due to the fertilizer shortage.
"As gardeners we need to examine some of our biases. Will it hurt anything if we tinkle in the orchard when nobody is looking? Maybe we don't dump the chicken litter into a pile but look around and find some plants that look a little bit puny and give them a shovel-full at their drip-line."
ReplyDeleteJoe, just a FYI chicken manure fresh from the chicken house is a HOT Fertilizer and has disease potential problems. Burning your plants and making your family sick isn't optimal.
SNIP Fresh manure from a backyard chicken coop or a farm has a strong smell and may contain harmful pathogens such as E. coli or Salmonella. Unlike dried manure, it cannot be used as such; it must be composted or aged before it is applied, or else the high ammonia content will burn the plants.
You CAN make Fresh Chicken manure tea to dilute the HOT nature and make your plants very happy.
https://gardenerbible.com/how-to-make-chicken-manure-tea-fertilizer/
BUT as Fresh Unaged manures still have potential disease pathogens I'd not use it with in 2 weeks of eating veggies raw as that's the minimum, I've found to reduce E-coli and Salmonella to reasonably safe levels.
Use of human urine is actually an awesome way to boost your garden plants. Just mix it 1 part to 10 parts water and water those plants. Almost no smell and generally urine isn't a disease issue. I'd not urine-water salad plants within a week of eating them but that's just me.