Dire Straights (of Hormuz)

Overheard

I was at the Lenten Friday Fish  Fry yesterday and I overheard a woman insisting that Europe was going to weather the Straights of Hormuz situation better than the US because "They have so many more electric cars and have wisely invested in so much renewable energy." 

I clammed up. I was doubtful but until I see data my opinion is worth no more than anybody else's opinion.

A quick look around the world suggests that in decreasing order of impact the list of countries that will be injured by the stoppage of oil from the Persian Gulf are

1. Japan and Korea (about 70% of their oil is shipped through the Straights of Hormuz) 
2. India (between 50% and 90% of their oil imported from the Persian Gulf states). More critically, large numbers of Indians use bottled gas for cooking since electrification is sketchy in many areas.
3. China (40%-to-50% from the Persian Gulf) which is about 7% of their national energy use. Coal is going to save their bacon.
4. European Union (12%, less than I expected)
5. US (7%) 

Who benefits?

1. Russia
2. Kazakhstan  
3. Nigeria 
4. Norway
5. United Kingdom
6. Brazil 
7. United States
8. Egypt (fees associated with SUMED pipeline and increased Suez Canal shipping) 

Regarding the number of electric vehicles:

The EU has one electric vehicle for every 44 people while the US has approximately one electric vehicle for every 85. In neither case is that enough to sideline all of the IC vehicles and run the economy.

Kicking the can down the road

There is never an elegant time to stop kicking the can down the road. However, there are times when a confluence of events create an instant in time when it is less-worse to address a difficult issue than others.

Frankly, we have many issues we have been kicking-the-can on: Social Security, Demographic collapse, Erosion of educational standards, Ballooning screen-time and the attendant decline in physical health, Immigration, Election Integrity. Some are being addressed. Others are still in free-fall.