There has been the sudden realization that the current storm of events will impact fertilizer availability and cause shocks in the food supply.
At a very fine granularity, as gardeners and food-growers, we need to pay meticulous attention to the most basic elements of gardening. We need to run a full-court press against weeds. We need to really pay attention to soil-moisture. We need to plant at optimal times and choose varieties that are productive. We need to harvest food so it is not wasted.
As gardeners we need to examine some of our biases. Will it hurt anything if we tinkle in the orchard when nobody is looking? Maybe we don't dump the chicken litter into a pile but look around and find some plants that look a little bit puny and give them a shovel-full at their drip-line.
At a very coarse granularity, vast numbers of people in Bangladesh, East Bengal, rural China, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Nigeria and Mexico will depopulate and move to cities where "services" are offered. The good news is that many jet airplanes will be grounded and the mass migration will be restricted to trains, buses and hoofing-it.
At a granularity between the two extremes, meat will be come exceptionally expensive. Various political entities will come to the conclusion that it makes more sense to send grain to the countries mentioned above than to machine-gun them at their(our) borders. Grain that went to chickens, pigs and steers will be diverted to Bombay, Dhaka, Lagos, Mexico City and Cairo.
Seafood will increase in price by an even greater percentage. Seafood has a very high "embedded energy" cost that is masked by fuel subsidies by nation-states. If you like meat, buy a pellet-gun and learn how to shoot it. If you like fish, then learn how to tie an Improved Clinch Knot and thread a worm on a hook.
The good news is that food is about to become much more delicious without the benefit of exotic spices. There is no sauce that makes food more delicious than hunger.
Bonus tip
Stock-pile enough sugar for a year's worth of canning.
Our biggest year for applesauce was 180 quarts. Given the amount of sweetening that I prefer, that requires 25 pounds of sugar. Even if I don't choose to can such a ridiculous amount of apple sauce, sugar will have trading value.
Characteristics of Money. Money is:
- Infinitely divisible
- Durable
- Universally accepted
- Compact
Sugar isn't "compact" but it meets the other three criteria. And even if you don't use it for trading, in time you will consume it within your household.
No fertilizer is coming out of the Persian Gulf, but the big news is that Russia just embargoed all fertilizer exports until 21 April. They are pissed at continuing Ukrainian attacks on their fertilizer plants, which the Ukrainians deceitfully claim to be part of the Russian OPK. The Russians are (now were) by far the world's largest exporter of fertilizer.
ReplyDeleteThis will be a disaster for Asia. They will scramble for American fertilizer and probably not get much. Cue the Sally Struthers commercials.