It has been a while since I heard this self-defense trope: "The typical gun-fight involves three shots fired at three feet and is over in three seconds."
Chris Baker over at Lucky Gunner posted an excellent essay in 2021 on this topic.
It is challenging to draw conclusions that will not generate criticism but he does his best. One of the things that makes the data "dirty" is that Law Enforcement shootings and Law Enforcement Officer shooting victims and armed citizens deterring crime are three very, very different things and you get very different numbers from each source.
Law Enforcement is trained to engage at whatever distance the target is as soon as they are legitimate threats. That can be over a hundred feet if the target is shooting from a building. They also are wearing body-cams which aren't great for estimating distance but can be used to verify whether the event started at inches, feet or yards.
Law Enforcement Officers who are gunned down are often "executed" as they sit in their vehicle. The perp walks up behind them and shoots them in the back of the head.
Data of citizens deterring crime using firearms (almost universally handguns) is much more scarce.
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| Three-to-five yards is 9 feet-to-15 feet. Basically the length of a standard 2-by-4 stud and the length of two studs laid end-to-end. |
Tom Givens of Rangemaster Firearms Training is one of the few credible sources of that data. The graph of his data is shown above.
Chris Baker writes the following about that data
Tom’s explanation for these numbers is that most civilian incidents involve armed robbery or sexual assault. Violent criminals typically attempt to threaten and scare victims into compliance when they’re still a safe distance away. That’s outside of what most of us consider our personal space. Once it’s clear the victim is going to do what they say, the attacker will move in closer.
Keep in mind, these are all former students of Tom Givens, so by definition, they’ve all had at least one or two days of really solid training. If we had a data sample from the more typical untrained masses, the numbers might look a little different. I suspect, with an untrained population, people might be a bit slower to react and we’d probably see a greater share of encounters in that 0 to 2 yard range.
Personally, I think the last sentence is optimistic. I think most untrained people will not even have cleared their holster.
Since we might be entering a period of "spicy times", re-read the underlined sentences. Then read them again.
Your first solid "vibes" of violent intent is when you should be moving away which buys you time-and-distance and you should be starting to clearing leather...even if all that you are carrying is pepper-spray.
When sh!t goes down, it goes down fast.
---Disclaimers---
I am not a certified defensive handgun trainer.
I am counting on my readers to set the record straight if I screwed-the-pooch on this one.
Bonus Image
Pear preserves in the kettle this morning. My IR thermometer tells me that we are up 173F.
A total and complete lack of situational awareness would be an accurate way to describe 95% of the people out there. Having talked to some of them about it, they do not envision themselves in a threat-filled environment, so take no precautions. When you point out the potential threats, they maybe saw them, but did not recognize them as threats.
ReplyDeleteIt's funny, I occasionally make eye-contact w/ other 'aware' people when in crowds - I make it a point to smile, wave and nod, and we both know there's a friend over on that side of the crowd.
"I refuse to live in fear" is a common response from the sheep. God gave us emotions so we can navigate through life. God gave us "fear". There is nothing inherently wrong with "fear".
DeleteMany of the "I refuse to live in fear" group are church-going people.
Noah built and ark. Virtually every miracle in the Bible had the recipients bringing SOMETHING to the event...jars of water, a few fish and dinner rolls...rolling a stone away...moving some roofing...touching a hem. God does not demand that we swoon and leave everything to him. Far from it.
The "leave it all to God" is a very shallow and biased reading of the Bible.
police, especially in groups, do not just shoot once or three times.
ReplyDeleteRight now the vast majority of these things can be prevented just by avoiding stupid people and stupid places.
ReplyDeleteThat would work if they didn't put nearly all medical facilities and convenience stores in "stupid places".
ReplyDeleteAnd the stupid is spreading.
LOL! 7-11 just closed a couple hundred stores. Many companies are 'pulling out' of 'stupid places', causing politicians to expose their communist nature. Free market will prevail, I assure you. It won't be long until they have to travel to our enclaves.
DeleteUnfortunately true, but if you look around you can find worthwhile exceptions.
DeleteWhile most hospitals are older and in rougher parts of town, in many smaller cities (under 50k population) the areas around them are not as bad as in bigger cities.
I have no intention of living near a city any bigger than that and avoid them as much as possible.
My current town of 5,000 has a county subsidized hospital and two non chain sort of convenience stores. The "wrong side of the tracks" is literally across the train tracks and is mostly the industrial part of town. I find it ironic that the two brothers in town are next to the public RV dump station. (And yes, with that information you could figure out my town with a little research, It's so remote here I'm not worried).
Jonathan
ERJ, I cannot speak to firearms, but I can speak to sword martial arts. Two factors there (in sparring, let us be fair): The first is the concept of zanshin, or awareness. It is both an awareness of the situation as a whole and potential threats in particular - including not just the overall layout of any given situation or geography but of individuals and their actions, especially for actions that might demonstrate hostile intent (it is not just martial arts in this regard; anyone that has ever worked and lived with animals has learned to look for subtle cues). The second is that once a hostile intent is discerned or action initiated, to either 1) Put distance between you and the attacker, or 2) act, and accept the consequences.
ReplyDeleteNot everyone can avoid all people or all situations anymore, but I do find minimizing my time out amongst "The English" tends to result in less chances of bad things happening to me.
Same with aikido, being aware of your entire opponent, not just focusing their hands. During randori (freestyle) we have to be aware of all our opponents, not just the one you are engaging at that moment.
DeleteI think you will find a large percentage of LEO's killed are shot with their own service weapon. That generally means a contact shot or very close range discharge
ReplyDeleteI do recall a factoid that moving laterally even 3 feet reduced your chances of being hit significantly. I heard that from both Givens and John Farnam so I'll take it as truth.
I do not find that to be true at all. (LEO's shot with own service weapons). But LEO's who are shot by criminals, are typically hit at close ranges, typically 0-3 yards. Criminals are not usually very good shots. Neither are most LEO's.
DeleteAsk any range safety officer.
I can second the assessments of Givens and Farnham. Movement is safety. Even three feet is enough. Keep moving.
The majority of LEO's killed by firearms are in fact suicides. The job can take a fearful toll on people.
I absorbed this information from years of working in programs which train LEO's.
According to FBI statistics, about 5% to 7% of all officers murdered each year are killed by someone who did not have a weapon at the beginning of the encounter. In most of these cases the suspect takes the officer’s gun to shoot them. Not always, because sometimes the officer is beaten to death. Plus, the statistics do not say how many officers are shot per year but survive.
DeleteIn the 1980s and before, the figure was closer to 20%. That has improved with better training and the widespread use of high-security holsters.
DeleteI used to worry that I'd get whacked because I didn't recognize it was time to switch from social work mode to defensive mode. Now, too often, I'm kind of oblivious to whats going on around me. Living around Detroit I was much more situationally aware than I am now in mid Michigan. Some of that is age, I'll be 76 in a couple of weeks. I think my mental acuity is reduced though my kids say they see no difference.
ReplyDeleteYeah, at 73, I can detect the movement of the second hand. I feel the same, but know I'm not. I practice quicks draw McGraw and marksmanship, but depend on observation, anticipation, evasion.
DeleteIt's not my job to save the world, it's my job to get me and the family to safety. YMMV.
The only time I had to shoot in self-defense I had to replace my fleece jacket as the muzzle blast from inside the fleece tore it up.
ReplyDelete38 Snubbies work well enough.
But then again, I do cowboy action shooting and instinctive point and fire is the normal.
The F'n FBI Lie Lie Lie.
ReplyDeleteThey lie by omission.
They lie and then later revise their numbers. Another lie? Most likely.
Trusting their data is a fools errand.
One guy I knew years ago was a Rhodesian that got out of Rhodesia when it became Zimbabwe (at considerable cost to himself in cash, land and goods). He was a farmer and during his normal working day would encounter wild animals that could and would kill him.
ReplyDeleteHis advice was "Pick a spot about 10 yards away. Try to scare the animal off by shouting but if it came any nearer than that pre selected spot, put it down, no questions asked", being that the animal had decided to attack.
I'd suggest a similar approach be taken if you are approached, drawing and pointing your weapon as the very minimum.
Phil B