Like trees, most of us increase in girth as we age

 

Source (UK data)

The main strength of the paper is the thorough (longitudinal) analysis of 273,843 BMI observations on 56,632 participants in studies spanning births between 1946–2001 and ages from 2–64 years. No other study has such extensive serial data covering such a wide range of ages and birth years. 

In terms of weaknesses, 

(1) it was not possible to model separate trajectories for overweight and obesity; 

(2) the trajectories were smoothed over age periods in which no sweep took place and thus did not capture local traits, such as a peak during puberty, for some studies; 

(3) we assume our findings are due to changes in adiposity more so than fat-free mass, but this might not always be the case [51,52]; and 

(4) by excluding non-white participants, we were not able to consider the extent to which secular trends in obesity might be driven by the changing ethnic composition of the UK...

The measurement protocols for weight and height were not consistent within and between-studies, which could have introduced bias if, for example, self-reported measurements were systemically under or over-reported. The tendency of people with greater BMIs to under-report weight suggests that our results are conservative

For a man of average stature, he becomes "overweight" at 169 pounds. For the average woman, she becomes "overweight" after she passes 143 pounds.

Those same individuals have to gain 34 and 29 pounds respectively to graduate from "overweight" to "obese".

In the 1946 (immediately after 10 years of economic depression and 6 years of World War, 1958 and 1970 Body Mass Indexes were virtually identical for 10 year-old children.

From age 10 and after, the boys/men gain weight decade-by-decade for the duration of the study.

In the 1946 study, women's BMI remains virtually unchanged until 1960 when those women are approximately 30 years old and then their weight slowly climbs.

The 1958 study shows women's BMI starting to creep upward starting at an age that is eight years sooner than the 1946 cohort.

The 1970 study shows women's weights starting their upward creep even sooner.

The 1991 and 2001 data show both boys and girls with approximately 10% more individuals in the overweight or obese categories. That is 2X the "floor" from the earlier studies.

The tabular data for the 1970 cohort shows 7% of 10 year-old boys, 18% of 20 year-old men, 52% of 30 year-old men and 67% of the 40 year-old men being overweight or obese. It also shows 12% of the 10 year-old girls, 16% of the 20 year-olds, 34% of the 30 year-olds and 49% of the 40 year-old women being overweight or obese.

One more reason to flee Deep Blue Cities

 

A crab-bucket move.

"If we cannot rise to your level, we will put you out of business and force you down to ours."

Noted in passing

The wife of one of my former coworkers passed away earlier this month and I will be going to the "visitation" this afternoon.

While I wasn't exceptionally close to this particular coworker, the trajectories of our lives were parallel. His wife worked in the same field as Mrs ERJ. Our marriages were within a few months of each other and Mrs ERJ and my coworker's wife were born in the same year. They lived in a small, very inexpensive house in a dumpy, working-class neighborhood on the south side of Lansing for the first few years they were married. We lived in a dumpy, working-class neighborhood on Lansing's east side during those same years. When we moved out of Lansing, they relocated north of town and we relocated south of town.

I purchased that house in 1984 for a half-year's salary and sold it in 1991 for the same price. It was not an investment. It was a place to live. 

Fertilizer

Cruising the internet, I see TSC does not offer urea or ammonium sulfate on-line.

Family Farm and Home (a local chain) still has it but does not ship. A 50 pound bag of urea (46-0-0) costs $40.

Blue Ash

If you live in the green area you might have a Blue Ash on your property.

A high percentage of Blue Ash trees are resistant to the Emerald Ash Borer and Blue Ash seeds are selling for $20 an ounce, retail. (A tip of the hat to Lucas Machias)

Blue Ash twigs are very distinctive because the young twigs have four, corky ridges ruling along their length giving the twig a faintly "square" shape in cross-section.
 

I anticipate light-blogging until Saturday

I have places to be and things to do.

"Give it a drink, Danny"

I vaguely remember a writer sharing that his father had a unique way of telling him to step back and get some perspective.

"Give it a drink, Danny"

Even though the writer grew up in a city, I assume the saying had its origins in plough-men and their horses. When your team is flagging, 'tis not the time to bring out the whip but it is the time to find a bit of shade and a bucket of water.

So, "Danny", as a young man, had a habit of becoming consumed with whatever event was immediately in front of him. He hyper-focused and became difficult to live with.

Sometimes, wisdom resembles simply being too tired and having run out of other options. Danny's dad would trudge up the stairs to Danny's room and stand in the doorway leaning against the frame. The advise wasn't loud. It was weary. The voice of a man who worked too many hours a week at a job that was arduous and boring.

"Give it a drink, Danny."

Then his father would turn and trudge back down the stairs to (perhaps) drink his nightly allotment of Old Milwaukee or Carling long-necks. 

"Give it a drink, Danny" might be timely advice given the tensions and distractions of today 

Saint Patrick's Day

The Medieval Church sprinkled the year with "Feast Days" to the tune of about one every three weeks. Local custom added more. They were wedged in between the crush of planting and harvest. There were winter/early spring festivals and there were mid-summer festivals.

Saint Patrick's Day falls in the middle of Lent, perhaps as a respite for those whose abstinence/penance became too heavy to endure the entire 40 days. St Paddy's Day is a bit like the Seventh Inning Stretch in baseball.

This Lent, I gave up my liquid libation in the evening. Mrs ERJ noticed that I am much more fidgety and seem to need less sleep.

I notice that I am losing weight and may have to punch another hole in my belt!!! Not only am I forgoing the calories but that "fidgeting" means I am moving more. I do not plan to indulge tonight, but for those of you who do, please be safe!

Fine Art Tuesday

 

The Calling of Saint Matthew

Caravaggio was born in 1571 in what is now know as Milan, Italy and died in 1610, possibly from lead poisoning, syphilis, sepsis acquired during a brawl in a bar or perhaps he was assassinated.

The Inspiration of Saint Matthew (as he wrote his account of Jesus)

 

Close-up of his head showing the detail and lighting

The Martyrdom of Saint Matthew

Saint Paul's Conversion on the Road to Damascus

Weather, Blow-guns and Nukes

This has been quite the year for "weather".

We are lucky. All we are getting is wind. Other parts of the state are got hammered with ice and deep snow. The last report I saw estimated 80,000 customers in Michigan are without electricity. Other states have been hit worse.

Spring

After a very warm first half of March, the second half of March is predicted to be "normal".

March daily high-low temperatures. Values on the left are actual and values on the right are predicted.

The first week of April is predicted to be close to normal and the last 20 days to be five-to-ten degrees F below average.

Homeschooling with Grandpa

 

11mm diameter "spit-wad" low and right-of-center.

Today's lesson was improvised weapons with an emphasis on blow-guns.

 

We started with tissue-paper softened with tap-water and will progress to 2" long bits of MIG wire in foam sabots repurposed from hearing-protection. The high school band will definitely put her in the brass section due to her enhanced lung capacity.

 

Wednesday's lesson will be the extraction of phytoalkaloids and insect-derived compounds using low-pH solvents.

Exit strategy

 

A very old bit of advice is to not enter a war in Asia before you have a robust exit strategy.

 

I hope our leaders in D.C. have given that some consideration.

 

In fairness to them, even though Afghanistan was a Goat Festival, especially the withdrawal; nobody has flown any airplanes into US landmarks since September 11, 2001. So maybe that counts as some kind of victory.

 

The leftists are claiming that Iran will eventually get nukes, so what is the point of our military action? Frankly, I would consider delaying their getting that capability by fifty years to be much more desirable than them having enough material to cobble together a Fat Boy in November of 2026. 

Rotting Cuttings and Building "sister" a house

The Hot-box report

The first flight of cuttings from the hot-box on the left. They are willow cuttings and I have a 20 Watt heating pad beneath it. Most of the cuttings are pushing leaves although the Crack Willow are lagging. I can see weeds sprouting which is a minor problem.

The second flight of cuttings are on the right. They came out of the box yesterday a couple hours before I took this photo. The buds are swelling. The bottom ends showed little sign of root development. I added wood-shavings on top of the potting media to provide insulation and to reduce evaporation from the potting media. There is another 20 Watt pad beneath it.

Both of these are covered with clear plastic and are underneath 4000K LED lamps.

The third flight of cuttings are in the box.  I am callousing cv. "Steuben", "GR-7", "V. riparia L50-s". I expect to add a few cuttings of "St Paul" later today. I expect to leave the grape cuttings in the box for two weeks.

Unfortunately, it is difficult to get large quantities of potting soil this time of year and the mix is wetter than I want it to be for grapes. (The misspelling in the title "Rotting Cuttings" was a Freudian slip that I decided to leave) They are not as tolerant of "wet" as willow or elderberries. I will probably lay some rags in the bottom of the box and poke some holes in the bottoms of the bags I placed around the cuttings in. 

Insulating a ceiling

The video where the older brothers insulate the roof of their sister's "house".

She came back to Ukraine after studying the German language in Germany. I get the impression that her arrival was sudden and unexpected.

Her "house" is a lean-to that was slapped together out of OSB and salvaged windows. They use old clothing that look like Goodwill Industry rejects to insulate the 12" between the ceiling and the roof.

This snippet is where the older brother makes her wood-stove. 

It is a case of making do with what is readily available. Adelaide, his sister, seems delighted with the effort.

At the 19:56 mark, if you read the subtitles you will learn about "Oleg", the youngest brother (9 years-old) who is a compulsive builder. He is a kid who can look at a pile of scrap-wood and see a castle...and then nail it all together. He must be the kind of kid who is unable to NOT build.

View inside her house as she finishes up the interior. This video is much faster moving the the one linked above.