Saturday, January 24, 2026

Cold is better than ice

Eaton Rapids is usually placed in USDA zone 6A  (predicted annual low of -10 F)

 It was -16 F, actual, when I looked at the thermometer this morning.

We tend to be warmer than some of our neighbors because our house is on a knoll and we have tree cover. Cold air is dense and runs downhill and puddles-up in the hollows.

A dense tree-cover is helpful in terms of softening temperature extremes at ground-level. "Cold" is partially the result of the heat-energy stored in items on the ground radiating through the atmosphere to deep-space. Clouds help retain over-night heat. Branches over-head also help reflect some of that heat back.

A secondary effect of heavy tree cover is that the sap and the buds freezing release heat and cause a very localized rise in temperature. Multiply that slight rise a million times and it makes a difference.

Shallow, snow-covered bowls with no vegetation or strctures emerging above the snow are the worst-case scenario for low temperatures. They are parabolic mirrors aimed at deep-space and have no other thermal mass than the human stupid enough to choose to bivouac or have their snow-machine founder there.

Friday, January 23, 2026

Gordian Knots

Gordian Knots (not to be confused with Don Knotts) 

The Phrygians had no king, but an oracle at Telmissus (the ancient capital of Lycia) decreed that the next man to enter the city driving an ox-cart should become king. A peasant farmer named Gordias drove into town on an ox-cart and was immediately declared king. Out of gratitude, his son Midas dedicated the ox-cart to the Phrygian god Sabazios  and tied it to a post with an intricate knot ...comprising "several knots all so tightly entangled that it was impossible to see how they were fastened"

The ox-cart still stood in the palace when Alexander the Great arrived. An oracle had declared that any man who could unravel its elaborate knots was destined to rule over all of Asia. Alexander the Great wanted to untie the knot but struggled to do so before reasoning that it would make no difference how the knot was loosed. Alexander the Great drew his sword and sliced it in half with a single stroke.   -Adapted from Wikipedia

Rules

I want to blather a bit about "rules".

I believe that reality is filled with chaos and turbulence and unpredictable events. It may be predictable for short intervals but things fall apart as scales increase.

This causes us, as humans, endless intellectual anguish. We spend our childhood forming mental-maps and yarn-balls of if-then-else logic. It is a universal conceit to think that our mental models accurately and comprehensively map the world.

It is pretty easy to demonstrate that it doesn't, though. Maybe there is a rule that says "Don't go into that bar!" or "Don't walk through that neighborhood after dark". The reason for those "Don't go" rules is that the operative rule-sets we are carrying in our heads fails (often catastrophically) in those environments.

Declaring "That is against the rules" is not a viable defense against a mugger or rapist. 

Trump 

The main reason progressives HATE Trump is because he doesn't honor the rule-sets in their heads. This is an unprecedented (in our lifetime) event. 

For example, the head of NATO reportedly told Trump that if the United States is attacked, that no European country will assist us in defending our nation. Four generations ago the US initiated the Lend-Lease program and the support has flowed and the defense umbrella stood without a hiccup since. 

Intelligent people are unable to perceive how distorted and self-serving their mental models became over decades of self-referential evolution. Julian and Fatou sets are a mathematical example of how simple rules applied over many iterations can produce bizarre and complex outcomes.

The Euros are outraged when Trump demands that the Europeans reciprocate in any way. In the experience of every living European, American generosity has been akin to gravity: Reliable, always there, a force of nature that you don't have to pay for.

Other Gordian Knots

The war-gaming guys have the same blind-spots as everybody else.

Who says China will not use nukes to seize Taiwan? If they did, how certain are we that the US would retaliate with nukes? Isn't that what the Slotkin/Kelly insurrectionists were prepping the troops for? "Disregard your superiors when they tell you to launch nukes?"

Wednesday, January 21, 2026

Videos can be a productive way to pass time

Since I have been "house bound" for much of the past week, I have a lot of empathy for the people south of me will be enduring, both during and after the huge ice-and-snow storm that will be hammering them Friday, Saturday and during the clean-up.

One of the distractions that help me retain my sanity was.....Youtube!

Youtube is a tool. Youtube is like a chainsaw. You can be the master of the tool or the tool can be your master. Trust me, it is better to be the master.

Proactively "seeding" your algorithm (or feed) is a smart move.

Here are a few channels that held my interest.

Serenity

Life is good when listening to piano concertos while installing primers into brass cups. I confess to a fondness for compositions by Sergei Rachmaninoff and Camille Saint-Saens. The Youtube video linked above is almost five hours long so you will not have to keep interacting with your device while listening.

Social commentary

Andre Williams

This guy's channel helps certain mysteries snap into focus.

For various personal reasons, I have a vested interest in understanding how I can help individuals of the African-American community be as successful as possible.

His language is edgy.

Relationships

Jimmy on Relationships. Look through his videos and click on something that you are interested in. Or not. I don't get a commission.

Conflictish. Look through his videos.... Pretty chill dude. Easy to listen to.

Understanding women

Yeah, right. Impossible, but I never saw that stop any man from trying.

EmilyWKing, Look through her videos...

 

Jedediah Bila: Look through...

The audio is garbled at the start of this video. "Cinderella took off her shoe and found love. You (modern women) took off all of your clothes and couldn't find love."

For the Francophones

 

Passe-moi les jumelles

Or, if you cannot understand French, you can turn on auto-subtitles after clicking on the gear icon in the lower, right corner of the screen. Then you can click on the gear icon again and activate auto-translate to English or any other language that they offer.

Not a French channel but Swiss.

Apples

Cummins Nursery

None of their videos go over two minutes, which is not an overwhelming amount of information.

The narrator taste-tests many unusual varieties. I watched their video on Ashmead's Kernal, Black Oxford, Boskoop and Zabergau Reinette.

You have to go to the videos page to see all of their content.

Do any of my readers want to recommend any video channels to those poor folks who might find themselves snowed/iced in?
 

Last day of flu reports

I found a weak spot in our preps. We ran out of dog-treats.

It is possible that our enforced "in house" conditions may have increased the number of treats Zeus got. He manfully consumed the extra treats without complaint.

Worst Storm Evah!

Inches of freezing rain predicted for the coming storm

It looks particularly bad for the band where freezing rain will exceed 1/2".

Power outages kill. Downed power lines kill. Carbon monoxide from improperly used generators kill. Hypothermia from furnaces that won't run without electricity kills. 1/2" of an inch of freezing rain is considered catastrophic and power outages are a near certainty.

Southern Arkansas is predicted to get over an inch of ice. So is a band from Atlanta, Georgia to Virginia's Dismal Swamp which includes the entire state of North Carolina.

Glare ice is almost impossible to walk on without crampons or without sprinkling some kind of grit on the surface. As a last resort you can vacuum your carpets and sprinkle the dust the vacuum collects on those surfaces you must walk on.

Snow can collapse roofs and is messy. If you have to drive in it then you can get stuck or have an accident. But it is the ice that is the big killer.

Be safe out there, y'all.

 

Paid protesters refuse to report for early shift

 

 

45 second run time.

I guess all of the quality people already have jobs. 

King-makers

This essay will be a quick look at what I see as the leverage-mechanism that allows a small number of people to have outsized influence on "who will be our kings".

One proposal (not mine) to address the issue is presented at the end of the essay.

*** 

It costs about $3.0 million to run a viable campaign for US House of Representatives. That is an average of $3.0 million for both sides. In "safe" districts, it will be substantially less. The losing side will establish a presence but aren't going to invest huge amounts on a sinking ship. The dominant party in the "safe" district doesn't need to spend $3.0 million to win.

Contested districts might see twice the average invested.

That money does not come from within the district. It come, mostly, through fund-raising mechanisms that are party specific. That means that if you, as a candidate, want money from WinRed or ActBlue you MUST dance to the tune they call. You must vote straight party lines and not what you perceive is the desire of your constituents nor what your conscience tells you to vote for.

It is just one more example of J.P. Morgan's Golden Rule, "The man with the gold makes the rules."

That leads to the capture of the party platforms/planks by the fanatical, one-issue voters: "I will eat nothing but BarS hotdogs, canned beans and instant rice for the next six months so I can send another $1000 to fund ProLife (or save the whales or advance LGBT rights or...) candidates.

The incredible price of the elections is primarily driven by the cost of media advertising. I suspect that many mainstream media outlets would go bankrupt without the huge influx of advertising dollars from political campaigns.

Viable solutions are tough to come by 

One proposal that was offered by people interested in campaign reform is to have the media outlets NOT CHARGE for political advertising. Let's say they have to sacrifice the minutes-per-day that are purchased by the industry that currently buys the largest share of advertising...say Pharma...and they have to give the same number of minutes/day to political candidates in October and early November.

That proposal died before it was born. The media corporations puked all over it. Financially, legacy media is furiously dog-paddling to keep their financial nose above the water due to competition from the internet. Pulling revenue from political advertising would be the equivalent of thumping the dog in the head with an oar.

Another issue involved the constitutionality of not funding minor parties. Would you force every station to host every whacka-doodle party equally?

If you only fund the advertising for some minor parties then you create some very strange dynamics. Suppose you ran a "primary" election for the minor parties at the same time you ran the Big-Two primary and the top one or two minor parties gets free advertising.

Furthermore, let's pretend that the top-two minor parties in Eaton County are the Green-Eggs-and-Ham party and the Whackum-and-Stackum party.

If you gave free advertising to the Green-Eggs-and-Ham party then the Republicans will win because the GE&H party drained the fringe voters who would have normally voted for the Democratic candidate. Similarly, if you funded the W&S party, the Democrats will win because the traditional Republican base was split. That is the opposite of what should have happened if we expect the representatives to be a "representative sample" of their constituency.

You might say "fund both of them", but what if the top two minor parties are Green-Eggs-and-Ham and Juan-for-the-Money parties and both robbed voters from the Democratic party. That would result in the "wrong" major party winning.

Cap spending?

Maybe the answer is to cap spending the way major sports leagues cap payroll. It would force the parties to become much more focused on their messaging and potentially give locals much more leverage since most volunteers for door-to-door work are local.