The original news reports misidentified CoV2019 as SARS. That is understandable because they are both coronavirus.
SARS had 8098 documented cases and 774 documented fatalities for a mortality rate of approximately 10%. The mortality rate increased rapidly for people over fifty and was said to exceed 50% mortality for people over 60.
Compare that to a typical year of the seasonal flu. The seasonal flu might kill a half million people globally every year. If that mortality rate was extended to a population of 8089 then there is a flip-of-the-coin chance that one person would die. The other side of the coin is that nobody would die.
Very big difference between half-a-person and 774 people.
Let's extend the rate seasonal flu rate to 11 million, the population of Wuhan, China. In that case almost 800 people would die. That sounds like a lot of people but consider that an average of 400 people die every 24 hours in a population of 11 million and the fatalities due to the seasonal flu are spread over three months.
Other factors that dilute the impact of deaths from the seasonal flu is that many of those people die three weeks after getting the flu due to secondary complications like pneumonia and many of those who die due to the seasonal flu are already in frail health and the flu was the last straw.
The videos coming out of Wuhan suggest that CoV2019 is striking down otherwise healthy people. It is dropping them like a bolt-from-the-blue.
One of the difficulties in getting a handle on the mortality rate of a rapidly growing epidemic is that one cannot simply divide the number of dead by the number of patients.
The reason is that the population of patients includes the person diagnosed yesterday and we won't know if he "survived" for about forty days* due to complications and secondary infections.
So it is impossible to calculate a fatality rate until
-You have solid, not politically tainted counts
-You have enough history to estimate the mortality curve. That is, "50% of the fatalities occur in the first 16 days after diagnosis" kind of information.
-You have enough history so you can take a snap-shot of a cohort of patients and then count how many are still alive sixteen days later.
The bottom line is that it is way too soon to quantify the fatality rate of CoV2019 but anecdotal evidence is that it is at least ten times higher than seasonal flu and may be a thousand times higher than that. Time will tell.
*I want to embellish the "forty day" number. Suppose one of the complications of this virus is renal (kidney) failure. The disease loads the blood with the cellular trash. They lodge in the kidneys. The cellular flotsam is saturated with viral fingerprints. The immune system goes nuts and nukes the kidneys as collateral damage.
If that happened today, the patient would be put on dialysis three times a week and could live for twenty years.
If that were even a slightly common side effect to CoV2019, then there are not enough dialysis machines and people start dying from renal failure weeks after they were "cured" of CoV2019.
That is just ONE possible wave of delayed mortality.
Tuesday, January 28, 2020
Monday, January 27, 2020
Is the stock market underestimating CoV2019?
Quite likely the stock market is underestimating the potential effect of CoV2019, the new coronavirus.
The human brain has limitations. One way we deal with that limitation is to treat a complicated cloud of probabilities as "binary".
In the case of CoV2019, the new coronavirus, binary means "absolutely nothing will happen" or "It is the end of the world as we know it."
There have been a wide range of studies investigating the heuristics (mental shortcuts) involving the calibration of low and high probability events. The overwhelming majority of the studies show that people round any probability of 20% or less into 0% probability and any probability over 80% to an absolute certainty of happening. This occurs whether you have a third grade education or a Ph.D in math.
Some of the difficulty in fleshing out the probability cloud involves imagining possible scenarios that are in the mid-range.
This blog post is an attempt to sketch out a mid-range scenario.
Where did all the Varget go?
Varget is a smokeless powder that has a cult-like following among sportsmen who reload for medium capacity cartridges like .308 Winchester, .223 Remington, .30-30 Winchester, 35 Whelen. Some reloaders even claim to put Varget on their cornflakes!
Varget's burn speed is well positioned for those cartridges and it is reputed to be relatively insensitive to temperatures swings. That is a big deal if you might be hunting antelope on the plains of Africa or Wyoming with 85 F temps or using the same load on Mule Deer at -15F.
Varget and several other smokeless propellants manufactured in the same factory suddenly disappeared from the shelves. So what is the story?
So, one of the major players in the shortage of Varget is the fact that the port had new regulations that created a bottleneck and that dried up the supply of Varget in the US.
CONEX Containers
What if the contents of every CONEX container from China and regions known to have CoV2019 endemic must be quarantined and sanitized? Would that cause much of a hiccup in the US economy?
Even if high volume methods of sanitizing are accepted, there would still be bottlenecks.
Flood them with ozone? Where would you get enough ozone generators? How long would you have to flood the container to ensure every last crevice had been saturated?
Heat them to 140F for an hour? It takes time to ensure the interior reaches that temperature.
Wipe the parts down by hand? You are kidding, right? China supplies about 15% of our pharmeceuticals. Wipe down EVERY pill? You are kidding.
Globalization
I know a little bit more about the auto industry than most other things, so it is easiest for me to illustrate the point using motor vehicles.
Our economy, like it or not, is very dependent on the global supply chain. You might not think 2% of an automobile's content being from China was a very big deal but it is. That anonymous black box on the back of a headlamp is a computer. It has far more capacity than it needs to blink in hazard mode or "Hey, I want to turn left." Economics demands that the little computer on the back of your headlamp be fully utilized so it is fully integrated into vehicle's computational biosphere.
Remove the right headlamp of some vehicles and the vehicle will not run! A vehicle is not salable if it is missing one, critical part.
And while the software coders could quickly write a patch or jumper around the missing module, who is going to step up and verify that the modified vehicle still meets all of the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and Fuel Economy Standards, and Emissions Standards etc? Because the vehicle was changed from the units that were tested and validated for certification.
And Just-In-Time inventory systems guarantees there is not a warehouse somewhere, filled with parts to keep the line running.
If it the story escalates to the point where we need to quarantine and sanitize all parts entering the US from questionable sources for a period of four months then a -5% to -10% drop in the 2020 Gross Domestic Product is likely.
The human brain has limitations. One way we deal with that limitation is to treat a complicated cloud of probabilities as "binary".
In the case of CoV2019, the new coronavirus, binary means "absolutely nothing will happen" or "It is the end of the world as we know it."
There have been a wide range of studies investigating the heuristics (mental shortcuts) involving the calibration of low and high probability events. The overwhelming majority of the studies show that people round any probability of 20% or less into 0% probability and any probability over 80% to an absolute certainty of happening. This occurs whether you have a third grade education or a Ph.D in math.
Some of the difficulty in fleshing out the probability cloud involves imagining possible scenarios that are in the mid-range.
This blog post is an attempt to sketch out a mid-range scenario.
Where did all the Varget go?
Varget is a smokeless powder that has a cult-like following among sportsmen who reload for medium capacity cartridges like .308 Winchester, .223 Remington, .30-30 Winchester, 35 Whelen. Some reloaders even claim to put Varget on their cornflakes!
Varget's burn speed is well positioned for those cartridges and it is reputed to be relatively insensitive to temperatures swings. That is a big deal if you might be hunting antelope on the plains of Africa or Wyoming with 85 F temps or using the same load on Mule Deer at -15F.
Varget and several other smokeless propellants manufactured in the same factory suddenly disappeared from the shelves. So what is the story?
"We asked Hodgdon why these shortages occurred, and what we should expect in 2020 ??
Going back to 2017 and early 2018 Hodgdon, and the whole industry were experiencing unusually poor demand. They made substantial government sales in 2017-2018 to soak up what they believed was excess supply at that time.
By late 2018 and 2019 demand was picking up again, especially for big case magnum powders. Unfortunately during this same period Hodgdon began experiencing supply problems from Australia. These problems are logistical and not related to production. Australia and steamship lines have new regulations concerning how much powder can be shipped on one vessel, how much powder can be in a container terminal at one time, and the hazard classification of the powder itself. Shipments were delayed and a few were even returned to the producer during 2019 due to these issues.
Hodgdon believes they are now ahead of the problems and will have more success shipping the Australian powders in 2020. Some is on the way now, which should make it into distribution by April. Varget, H1000 and H4350 should be back in distribution by April, Retumbo should be available sometime April to June." -January 12, 2020, Three Forks Ammo & Reloading LINK
So, one of the major players in the shortage of Varget is the fact that the port had new regulations that created a bottleneck and that dried up the supply of Varget in the US.
CONEX Containers
What if the contents of every CONEX container from China and regions known to have CoV2019 endemic must be quarantined and sanitized? Would that cause much of a hiccup in the US economy?
Even if high volume methods of sanitizing are accepted, there would still be bottlenecks.
Flood them with ozone? Where would you get enough ozone generators? How long would you have to flood the container to ensure every last crevice had been saturated?
Heat them to 140F for an hour? It takes time to ensure the interior reaches that temperature.
Wipe the parts down by hand? You are kidding, right? China supplies about 15% of our pharmeceuticals. Wipe down EVERY pill? You are kidding.
Globalization
I know a little bit more about the auto industry than most other things, so it is easiest for me to illustrate the point using motor vehicles.
Our economy, like it or not, is very dependent on the global supply chain. You might not think 2% of an automobile's content being from China was a very big deal but it is. That anonymous black box on the back of a headlamp is a computer. It has far more capacity than it needs to blink in hazard mode or "Hey, I want to turn left." Economics demands that the little computer on the back of your headlamp be fully utilized so it is fully integrated into vehicle's computational biosphere.
Remove the right headlamp of some vehicles and the vehicle will not run! A vehicle is not salable if it is missing one, critical part.
And while the software coders could quickly write a patch or jumper around the missing module, who is going to step up and verify that the modified vehicle still meets all of the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and Fuel Economy Standards, and Emissions Standards etc? Because the vehicle was changed from the units that were tested and validated for certification.
And Just-In-Time inventory systems guarantees there is not a warehouse somewhere, filled with parts to keep the line running.
If it the story escalates to the point where we need to quarantine and sanitize all parts entering the US from questionable sources for a period of four months then a -5% to -10% drop in the 2020 Gross Domestic Product is likely.
Calculate the velocity of the vehicle
 |
| Hat tip to C.W. Swanson for the image |
I might have a chance to do some pro bono physics tutoring.
Bella solved the problem by inspection. "At the end of the clip the velocity is approximately zero."
Then she challenged me to solve for the velocity in meters/second at the start of the clip.
Approximations:
The gap is slightly longer than the vehicle as the vehicle goes airborn. Let's approximate the gap as 20 feet wide or about six meters.
The front of the vehicle impacts the moving face approximately two feet below the roadbed. The point of impact on the vehicle is approximately 24 inches above the bottoms of the tires. Total drop is 48" or 1.2 meters.
X)t=X)0 +V)0*t +0.5*A)0*t^2
Set coordinate system so X)0 and V)0 are zero.
X)t=A)g*t^2
t^2=X)t/A)g=1.2/9.8=1.2
t=sqrt(1.22)= 1.1 seconds
Velocity is the distance divided by the time. 6m/1.1s = 5.4m/s
In US units that is about 12mph
Looking at the superficial damage to the hood and fenders, 12mph is a plausible impact velocity.
Topping off preps
Mrs ERJ and I visited a Walmart last night after visiting with mom.
It was all very normal. Walmart had pallets of hand sanitizer as we came through the main doors and in the aisle-way islands.
Our visit was a spur of the moment thing. We were already in the car and the trip to Wally-world was just a few extra miles.
Looking in other people's carts I saw the usual assortment of diet pop, snack chips, readi-made cupcakes and cans of pet food.
The shelves of dry beans and bulk, dry rice were full. Ditto for the shelves of vegetable oil.
Once we decided to hit the store, Mrs ERJ made a list as I drove.
We succumbed to one impulse buy. We bought two cases of Raman noodles.
The majority of Mrs ERJ's list were durable, long-storage life items like tubes of toothpaste, bars of soap, hand sanitizer and toilet paper.
From the edibles standpoint we picked up enough coffee to float me for a year, jars of peanut butter with the longest expiration date we could find (Jiffy 2/2022).
Obviously, if/when things get sporty we will "bug in".
It was all very normal. Walmart had pallets of hand sanitizer as we came through the main doors and in the aisle-way islands.
Our visit was a spur of the moment thing. We were already in the car and the trip to Wally-world was just a few extra miles.
Looking in other people's carts I saw the usual assortment of diet pop, snack chips, readi-made cupcakes and cans of pet food.
The shelves of dry beans and bulk, dry rice were full. Ditto for the shelves of vegetable oil.
Once we decided to hit the store, Mrs ERJ made a list as I drove.
We succumbed to one impulse buy. We bought two cases of Raman noodles.
The majority of Mrs ERJ's list were durable, long-storage life items like tubes of toothpaste, bars of soap, hand sanitizer and toilet paper.
From the edibles standpoint we picked up enough coffee to float me for a year, jars of peanut butter with the longest expiration date we could find (Jiffy 2/2022).
Obviously, if/when things get sporty we will "bug in".
Three is enemy action (fiction)
Chernovsky had ample time to ponder the stupidity of what he was doing as he crammed his backside into the scant cover offered by the second observation point.
The cover on the roof had seemed more than ample when viewed from the first hide but after climbing up the side of the building had proved to be quite scanty.
Not only had the climb been harrowing and the cover almost non-existent, but he had punctured one of his gallon water jugs on the climb up. It was, of course, the full water jug and not the half full one.
Tormented by thirst in the unseasonably warm, late-September sun, Chernovsky had time to think about all the reasons HE should not be the one on this mission.
It had all seemed very simple and straight-forward when he told Straeder to take a hike. But now, relying on immobility more than cover he started thinking about the consequences if he were caught.
It is pretty tough to pass for an indigent drunk when you are three stories above the ground and had to work damned hard to get there.
Chernovsky had a high pain threshold but even he knew he would spill his guts if interrogators started shoving toothpicks under his fingernails or barbecuing his eyeballs with cigarettes. If caught, Chernovsky knew enough to make Capiche’s defense impossible.
That is when he decided that if he was “busted”, he was going to swan-dive to the ground.
Which made him think of Janelle and his unborn baby.
*
One of Chernovsky’s gifts wasthe ability to pare away the non-essential frills, stomp out the air bubbles and distill the "story" into the core problem. A problem well stated is a problem that is more than half solved.
The problem was to convince Livingston County that they had an imminent threat to their east. A threat large enough that the invasion of Capiche would have to wait until the eastern threat was resolved.
One event might be an accident. Two events might be coincidence. Three events is enemy action.
The night when Chernovsky torched Milford’s trucks and shot up Livingston County’s police post counted as one incident.
Security would tighten after the second event. In practical terms that meant that Chernovsky had to have both events set up before pulling the trigger on the second event.
In Chernovsky’s mind, the second event had to be close to the Livingston County/Milford frontier so everybody associated the second event with the first event.
The third event had to be in the heart of Livingston County. It had to be more than a minor, border skirmish.
*
Chernovsky did not discover the leaking water jug until after he had eaten his pancakes. By four in the afternoon his torment led him to drink out of a puddle on the flat roof. Yes...he knew it had pigeon crap in it. He would deal with the fall-out later.
It boggled Chernovsky’s mind that SOMETHING happened at the Livingston County annex with stunning regularity. Stunning because regularity favored the attacker while randomness favored the defender. Vehicles pulled up at exactly the same time each day. Distinguished dignitaries stepped out. The same men showed up, three times a day at exactly the same time.
The regularity of the anomaly reminded Chernovsky of a beating heart.
*
Five nights later the Livingston County truck depot closest to Milford was engulfed in an enormous fire. All of the rolling stock was destroyed.
*
The next morning Torvalsen threw the breakers that opened the skylights and started the ventilation fans. It was still hot at mid-day enough that pulling in early morning air cooled the vast structure.
On the roof a wire that tapped into a 110V circuit energized a valve salvaged from a washing machine. With 85% of the population dead, there were plenty of appliances to salvage parts from. The valve opened and passed water down a hose into the thirty gallon fuel tank from a Ford F-150.
Beneath the hole was a funnel and hose. The hose directed the fuel into a squirrel-cage fan pumping air into a 5000 square-foot, high-bay area. The fan, driven by a 2 horse-power, 3-phase motor turned the steam of fuel into a fog that filled the enclosed space.
Chernovsky didn’t expect the fog to ignite. It would be enough if it LOOKED like an air-fuel bomb had been intended.
The spark occurred when Torvaldsen turned off the fans. The enclosed space was on the far side of the complex but the blast was enough to collapse a third of the building’s shell and trash the partition walls in half of what remained.
Chernovsky heard the blast from five miles away. He was working his way west toward Capiche. He could have made better time but he was hampered by a raging case of the johnny-trots.
Next
Sunday, January 26, 2020
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