Thursday, May 21, 2015

Merchandizing: small business report

Merchandizing is a challenge for every retailer.

Perhaps the primary challenge is to cut through the clutter and to register in your customer's minds as a viable option for their custom.

Paradigms


This essay explains how customers use information filtering heuristics to manage their lives.  Then it attempts to explain some basic merchandizing tactics to avoid having your message filtered out.  Finally it offers a simple, flexible, medium priced option to implement those tactics.

Information filtering


We are besieged with information.  We are drowning in it.  We develop heuristics, simple rules or behaviors, that help us ignore the trivial information so we can process critical information efficiently enough to function in real-time.

Consider the last time you went on a date with your beloved.

You were sitting in a booth at a popular restaurant and having a pleasant conversation.  Much of what you talked about was inconsequential...sort of a preludes to the critical few items that were on your mind.

What heuristics did you use so you could pay attention to those critical items and not be distracted by the ocean of extraneous information?  The successful merchandizer must be aware of those filters, otherwise the customer will apply them to his/her merchandizing message.

Spatial


Spatial breaks down into two components:
  1. Cone-of-vision
  2. Focal plane

Cone-of-vision

On our date, we focus around our beloved's face.  That is how we are able to not-attend to the swirling maelstrom in the center of the restaurant.  That is why serious daters like booths.  There is less distraction.

This is the display that is directly behind the cash register at the Eaton Rapids Burger King.

As a retailer, don't queue your customers up to the cash register and expect them to see any menu that is more than 20 degrees away from the customer's line of motion.

There are four displays behind the counter, but 90% of the customers don't read the three that are outside their cone-of-vision.  Some other fast food restaurants deal with this problem by having the customer queue snake around in gentle arcs along the length of the counter.
Savvy used car dealerships solve this problem by locating their lots on the outside of wide, gentle bends of well traveled roads.  As commuters drive down the road, their cone-of-vision slowly sweeps across the dealer's offerings.


Focal plane

On our date, we do not attend to the people sitting behind our beloved even though they are in our cone-of-vision.  We are programmed to ignore items that are closer (flickering candle) and further away than the item (person, in this case) that pinned our attention.

Eric Mergener keeps track of sales on a rack-by-rack basis.  Customers seem to look past rotating racks when they are placed in front of flat, wall mounted displays.

The overwhelmed, overloaded, overtrained American consumer is hopelessly brainwashed to look at flat printed material, flat computer screens and flat information kiosks.  Either go with the flow or be prepared to offer ample cues to the customer to look for 3-D information.

Dynamic information


The Heuristics scholars call this Vivid/Pallid and Salience heuristic.

Customers see what moves.  They notice what changes.  "Different" tweaks their attention....within reason.

You knew when your beloved was going to broach an important topic by the changes in the tone and cadence of their speech and by the changes in their facial expressions and posture.

The used car lot mentioned earlier exploits this heuristic by rearranging their vehicles.  They move a few from the back of the lot to the highly visible area near the road.  They shuffle the vehicles within the row.  They vary the colors.  They vary the size of the vehicles.  They change the aspect of the row of parked vehicles; quartering towards the road, perpendicular and quartering away.

The "within reason" means that any given configuration must be in place long enough to register as "normal".  Otherwise, the car lot simply registers as a swirling pool of chaos and the commuters will ignore it because the dissonance causes psychic pain.

"Within reason" depends on the amount of information embedded within, or busyness of the display.  A workable range is between three "looks" and twenty looks.  Our car dealer would probably schedule the display rearrangement for once-a-week, likely on a Wednesday evening to maximize the contrast between "Before" and "After".

Flat screen TVs


This display is actually a flat screen TV and the information is fed to it from a computer via a video cable.  It is used as a static display but all of the pieces-parts are there to make it dynamic.
At this time (May 21, 2015) a customer can buy a 40" flat screen TV for $230.  Flat screen TVs offer vivid colors and a constant focal plane that is important for customer's easy of viewing.

A slide show tickles that Vivid/Pallid heuristic and helps your customer see your offerings.
 
The last computer your kid threw out probably had Microsoft Powerpoint loaded onto it.  Microsoft Powerpoint has the ability to produce looping slide shows.  Eaton Rapids High School offers classes in Digital Media and Practical Computing.  If you live in Eaton Rapids, you can contact Erik Smith (Send Message button in upper, left corner) at the High School and he can give you a list of names of students who can help you out.

 A slide show tickles that Vivid/Pallid heuristic and helps your customer see your offerings.

Example






This is two loops through a Powerpoint slide show that displays the four "panes" from the Eaton Rapids Burger King.  Remember, most customers only see the first pane and are unaware of the products/prices shown on the other three panes.

* Each pane is displayed for 20 seconds.  Transitions are "fade" and set to 1.0 second and "Effect Options" is set to "Through Black".


What would I change?



First I would increase the font size.  Whoever specified the font size on this pane was brain dead.  It is not readable on the static display.

Most people who present from Powerpoint slides figure one minute per slide to talk through the content.  Based on the defaults Microsoft programmed into Powerpoint, a slide with a title and no pictures can hold about 70 words and still retain maximum readability.  Most people can read much, much faster than a presenter can talk.

The other things I would change would be to beef up the title.  Customers are able to process the information more quickly and more easily when they are prepped by a descriptive, easy-to-read title.

Finally, I would show fewer items at each look but make the item shown much larger and try to incorporate an "implied dynamic".  For example, the picture of the French Toast sticks shows syrup dripping off the end.  That is an implied dynamic.  Our minds "animate" that kind of picture.

Work arounds


You must have pictures.  Pictures are Vivid and tickle that Vivid/Pallid heuristic.  You must have pictures.  So how do you have excellent pictures and still keep the text readable?

You use time.  Time is your friend.  Don't show them everything at once.

You have many options with a dynamic medium like the slideshow.  Like the used car dealer, you can change the picture you present with the text each time you roll through the loop**.  You can show ONE item each time.  You can change which one item you show each time you loop.  Or you can change the perspective of a single (high profit) item each time through the loop and give the customer multiple looks at it.  You can show the product in the hands of a happy customer.

The owner of the Mesquite Riverbend Junction was one of the best merchandizers I ever met..  He took pictures of happy patrons, especially on Valentine's Day, Prom Night and other landmark occasions.  He asked for, and generally received, permission to use those pictures to advertise.  He used a projection TV to display those pictures on one wall of his restaurant.  He understood that people buy High School yearbooks because their picture is in it.  They came back to his restaurant for the same reason.  He made his customers his stars.

* Parameters for the Powerpoint slide show were given so you can tell that High School student where to start.  Also, you can watch the video and decide if it is too fast or too slow for your products and your customers.  And you can adjust accordingly.

**Powerpoint has the option of continuous looping.  Changing a loop to include a different "look" at a product involves copying the entire loop and swapping in different pictures.  There may be a more efficient way to do it using objects but I don't know how to do it.

Index of Small Business Reports

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

ISIS

All ideologies or systems will eventually find themselves painted into a corner unless accommodations are made to "relax" the macro rule-set during times of constipation.

From my recliner in zip code 48827, it looks as if the current Administration is sorely in need of "relaxing" of their rule-set on the topic of ISIS.

Cutting to the chase, there are no innocent bystanders in ISIS occupied territory.  ISIS, as a matter of policy, routinely slaughters not just "hostiles", but "neutrals" as well.  By definition....ISIS's definition, there are no non-ISIS, non-combatants in ISIS held territory.  ISIS killed or converted them all.

If we find ourselves sucked into this mess, a mess we could have prevented had politicians not made cheap, grandstand plays, it should be with the understanding that ISIS defined this as total warfare.  There is no such thing as collateral damages or collateral casualties.  There need be no concern for cultural heritage or historical artifacts.  ISIS, with their loutish behavior took those constraints off the table.  They are destroying them more quickly than TNT.

If it is inside ISIS controlled territory and it moves....destroy it.  If it has a heat signature at 4:00 AM local time....destroy it.  If it is a crop....burn it.

Food


Siege has a long history as a military tactic.

Iraq can only grow 20% of the calories needed to sustain its population.  That number will be closer to 7% after they lose access to fertilizer and pesticides.  In the longer run, that number will drop to 2%-to-5% as irrigation equipment fails.

The four horsemen of the Apocalypse ride together for a reason.  A famine where calories are cut by 90% does not mean that 10% survive.  It means that nobody survives.  Very few will go quietly into the night so "some" other anonymous person can live.  Starved bodies are vulnerable to disease and pestilence.  At some point burying the bodies becomes too much work.

The mirror image of the Golden Rule is "Do unto others as they have demonstrated they will do unto us."

ISIS has provided us with ample evidence of what they will do unto us, given the chance.

Don't spend it when you don't have it

Use it up.
Wear it out.
Make it do.
Or, do without.
   

Cameras


These little, $99, point-and-shoot digital cameras are a marvel.

But they are not without faults.

Based on multiple Monte Carlo simulations, the ERJ consulting group determined that there is a 23% chance that the camera will land on the battery access door when dropped.

This is a photo of the battery door on the official ERJ Blog camera.

This is the second ERJ blogging camera to experience this failure mode.
The polymer used for these cameras is chosen for cost, surface finish, moldability and paintability.  Impact resistance and fracture toughness are pretty far down the list of selection criteria.

This problem would be solved if the "factory" used polycarbonate, high-impact ABS, polyamide or polycarbonate. 

So it was necessary to splint the battery access door.

But what to use for a splint?


You may recognize this.  It came from a beverage can.
After much consideration, the winner was a piece of formed aluminum alloy.

I glued it to the battery access door with Shoe Goo.

I will keep you updated.  If I have to do it again I will try some other adhesive.  Shoe Goo has a very short pot life.

I love it when I can put a $30 (price, used) camera back on the road for the price of a pop-can tab and 2 ml of glue.

Getting Belladonna out the door

Belladonna has "Senioritis".  Increasingly desperate measures have been required to wake her up and get her out the door.

Today, I had to play some inspirational music to roll her out of bed.


I knew it was working when she started singing along.

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Hazelnuts and pears

The weather turned today.  After five days of temperatures in the mid-70s and low-80s it is back to a more seasonal 58 degrees.  And it is windy.  And it is cloudy.

It is a good day to transplant.

I had outstanding germination on three of the seed-lines that Tom Molnar sent me from Rutgers.

National Arbor Day Foundation #3 and #10 germinated well.  That is not surprising because NADF uses them to produce seedlings for mass distribution. They would have been culled if they were shy germinators.

The other strong germinator was a Russian selection, RUS H3R07P25.  Not only did it come bounding out of the ground but it eagerly produces adventitious roots.  That means it will be easy to propagate by layers and/or cuttings.

Chinese Trazel was an "OK" germinator.  I am still waiting, mostly, for the other seed-lines.

I suspect that the seedlines that did not germinate well, yet, may have needed a longer stratification time.

The vast difference in stratification requirements suggests that one might be able to practice mass selection based on germination rate.  It would be a great convenience to produce vast numbers of hybrid hazelnut seedlings and to be able to cull based on some visible trait from the pollen parent that manifests early in the seedling's development..  Early germination or red leaves are possibilities.

Tying up fruit trees


It is well documented that securing fruit trees to a post hastens fruit bearing.  The presumed mechanism is that wind-whip generates growth regulators that cause the tree to devote more resources, i.e. carbohydrates, to increasing the thickness of the trunk.

Each emerging bud on the tree makes a decision regarding whether to be a fruiting bud or a vegetative bud.  The primary signal for this decision is the Carbohydrate/Nitrogen ratio.  High Carb/Nitrogen ratio tips the bud toward fruiting.  Low Carb/Nitrogen ratio tips bud toward vegetative. 

The carbohydrates that are sunk into the trunk growth become invisible to the bud and increase the likelihood of it "choosing" to be vegetative.

The stem that needs help is on the left side of the picture.  It starts vertically but then the mass of the new shoots and the prevailing winds bent it to the right side of this picture.
It does not take much.  The pole is about 8' long and 2" in diameter at the butt.  In this case, it was a Black Locust sucker culled from a thicket.
This is what it looks like after tied up to the stake.

For the record, this is on a tree that was top-worked with "Tennis Shoe"* pear scion wood donated by frequent commenter "Lucky in Kentucky".  It grew 4' the first year and had no tip die-back.  That is excellent considering the fact that this was another test winter (two-in-a-row!) and "Tennis Shoe" was selected in Harris County, Texas.

*Actual name is Tenousui.

Melons

Fruit trees in California.  They are dying from the drought.

The drought in the western United States keeps getting worse. 

The latest news is from Washington State, article HERE.  Many still do not "get it".  Washington State grows the vast majority of "eating" apples (as opposed to "processing" apples).
 A quote from the article

"State agencies are already ramping up work to relieve hardships from water shortages..."

 What can they do? 

According to this article, it takes almost $100,000 an acre to bring an apple orchard into full production.  That is $60,000/acre land cost and an additional $40,000 in inputs.  Oh, and it takes six years before production peaks. 

One conclusion is that fruit will become more expensive and the choices more limited.

Melons



Image from HERE

I was talking to one of the owners of a local, commercial orchard about the marketing opportunities the western drought was making for them.  There is very little they can do in the short term to bump up the production of tree fruits like apples and pears because of the amount of time it takes for the trees to mature.

But they plan to plant melons. 

Melons are some of the most delicious, aromatic, luscious, juiciest fruit that God blessed this earth with.

Melons like warmth and sunlight, but otherwise are quite grower friendly.  And most of them will produce within 90 days of planting.  Some of them even sooner.

I think I will be planting some melons in the garden this year.

Monday, May 18, 2015

Ladder and rigging work

A twenty-four foot ladder.  Falling from fifteen feet is not on my agenda.

Lots of good stems to graft on once I get up there.

Ladder work is not my favorite thing.  But sometimes it must be done. 

I am top-working this persimmon tree.  It is currently "Morris Burton", a variety named after a pig farmer from Indiana.  He noticed that his pigs raced to a particular tree every time the wind shook it.  He tasted the persimmons and decided they were the best tasting ones he had ever wrapped a lip around.

It is a delicious persimmon.  It is not a very heavy bearer under my conditions and I think I can do better.  This tree got scion wood of "I-115", "K-6", "Szukis" (pronounced "Suitcase" in my mid-Western ignorance).  It may also get some scions from "Lena" before I am done.

I stopped after "Szukis" because I had to tie-off the top of the ladder due to the wind picking up.  That is not much fun.  The other thing about top working trees from a ladder is that the grafter must work from some unorthodox ladder positions.  My thighs are talking to me.

Dog house


The dog house sat on four cinder blocks, one is each corner.  The dogs tunneled beneath the house and undermined two of the blocks,  one in the southwest corner and one in the northeast corner.  I rolled the house off the two remaining blocks so I could work on the foundation.  The house is top-heavy so it was easy to roll.

While I was at it, Mrs ERJ wanted me to do some drainage work.  I ran a drain tile beneath the kennel fence and up to the basin they excavated around the house.

I did not anticipate how difficult it would be to roll the house back into position.  The last time I did this I had Belladonna and Kubota to help me roll it back.  They were in school.  Fortunately, I was able to recruit Mr Tow Strap and Mrs Come-Along.

A quick check was made to ensure the house was rolling and not sliding.  Looking good.

Hmmmm!  Not very square on the blocks but I can drift things around and shim to make everything happy.
That should last them another year.  I threw a bunch of Black Locust cribbing beneath the house as I back-filled their cave.  I hope that slows down their tunneling.

Does anybody know how to block WWII movies on Netflix?  Damned German Shepherds.