Saturday, October 17, 2026

45% of 15-to-24 year-olds do not participate in the labor market

 

Labor force participation 15-24 year-old men. NOT seasonally adjusted.

Notable for 17% swings in participation rate in the 1960s and less than half that now. Also notable for the base-rate of 55% being incredibly stable for the last 15 years.

Peak month for participation is July. 

Seasonal work is important because it is often a gateway to full-time employment and because food harvesting, for instance, is seasonal in nature.

It is worth noting that work that is paid "under the table" is not captured in this data. 

Labor force participation 15-24 year-old women. NOT seasonally adjusted.

Notable for the rapid climb starting in 1965, hitting a plateau between 1980-through-2020 and then sagging until 2010. Currently tied with men's labor participation rates although seasonal excursions are about 2/3 that of men's.

Peak participation month is July. 

Labor force participation 15-64 year-old men. NOT seasonally adjusted.

For the entire population of men, labor-force participation has been collapsing for as long as they have been taking data. We are currently at 80% participation.

Labor force participation 15-64 year-old women. NOT seasonally adjusted.

For the entire population of women, labor-force participation rose from 40% to 70% between 1955 and today.

In what appears to be a statistical anomaly, there is not seasonal ripple. That suggests that the 15-24 cohort ripple (peak in July) is damped by higher seasonal employment Sept-through-May by older cohorts of women. Examples, teachers and aides in classrooms, working retail in November and December.

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