Friday, April 10, 2026

What does Israel want?

 

A map showing various ethnic groups in southern Iran

It is pretty clear that Israel, for reasons of their own, are sabotaging US efforts to a rapid conclusion to the military operation in Iran. Dropping a bomb on the home of the moderate Iranian who was negotiation with J.D. Vance was not a very subtle hint.

One reason for not wanting a rapid resolution is that Israel sees no path in which a viable "Iran" is not a mortal threat to Israel for at least two generations. That means removing the source of the funding for Iran's nuclear ambitions: Their Gulf Petroleum Revenues. The most likely solution that would be tolerated by Israel would be to parcel or "partition" the country now called Iran into many, weaker regions with those regions administered by other vested interest in the region.

That is not something that can be done quickly. 

Forgive the exceptionally crude graphics, but the marked up "map" is one concept. The dashed black line is through the center of the Persian Gulf. The solid red line separates the partitioned states from historic Iran. The solid yellow lines separate the partitioned states from each other.

The dark-green region (less the fertile plains of Dezful) at the top of the Persian Gulf becomes Kuwait-East. The pink, gray and light-green region southeast of Kuwait-East becomes a protectorate of the Saudis. The dark-green region southeast of that becomes a protectorate of the Arab Emirate and includes the north end of the Straits of Hormuz. The mostly orange region that is on the south end of the Straits of Hormuz becomes Balochistan and is a protectorate of Pakistan.

Regions on the west side of Iran to the north are also chipped away, Kurdistan and so on.

The precedents for this are the partitioning of Berlin after WWII and the fragmentation of the former Yugoslavia. 

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