Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Outside Activities

I wanted to keep the Heinrich's Law related posts in one block.  This is a list of some of the things I have been doing during that time interval.
 

Some of the lint that came out of the dryer vent.  No, the aspen leaves were not in the vent. 

I performed an angioplasty on the dryer vent.  We have a "smart" dryer that senses when the clothes are dry.  I assume it operates on how quickly the exhaust is heating up.  With the exhaust vent choking off we had to cycle the dryer several times to get our clothing dry.  We use the dryer a great deal  in October and November.  There is very little natural drying power this time of year.  It is damp outside and it is not cold enough to reliably kick on the furnace.


I cut dogwood brush and planted multiplier onions through the trimmings.  That is what I was doing when the Captain and I had our over-the-fence conversation about fisticuffs on the playground. The patch is a triangle about twenty-five feet on a side and the onions are planted on twenty-four inch centers...mostly. 

Some of my seed-stock came from a naturalized planting (60 feet long by 10 feet wide) next to Carr Lake in Eaton County.  There are across the gravel road from about 6, very old, mobile homes.  There is also a naturalized planting of garlic.  I deduce that a nurturing gardener/cook once lived in one of those mobile homes.  I am grateful to them.

Someday I hope to get my hands on some Green Mountain multiplier onions.

I harvested some of my ornamental corn.  This is mostly a cross between Silver Mine and Santo Domingo Blue.  I planted five rows.  This is one row's worth of ears.  As you can see, it fills a 40 pound banana box to overflowing.

Close up.  Yeah, I admit to being a little bit proud of them.  My goal is to produce all white kernels with the floury-1 gene on 12" long ears that ripen in Eaton County, Michigan.

No Pictures:


I trapped three field mice out of the bee hive in the corner post.

I cooked the Winter Luxury pumpkin.  The quality was OK.  Maybe five stars out of ten. I may have failed to cook it thoroughly.  I will try it one more year in a sunnier location.

After a 10 day gap, I got back to running.  I failed to pace myself and was really struggling at the end.

While walking through my persimmons, I noticed that the least precocious persimmon on my property finally decided to show me her gender.  She had one persimmon. I would have eaten it and given you a quality report but I had just brushed my teeth and it would not have been a good check. Girl persimmons are always a reason to celebrate. 


School Violence

There is very little I can add to this article: Active shooters in schools: The enemy is denial.

A few excerpts follow:

“How many kids have been killed by school fire in all of North America in the past 50 years? Kids killed... school fire... North America... 50 years...  How many?  Zero."
"“In 1999,” Grossman said, “school violence claimed what at the time was an all time record number of kids’ lives. In that year there were 35 dead and a quarter of a million serious injuries due to violence in the school."
So why does Johnny Firefighter get an A+?
"There is not one stinking thing in this room that will burn!”
Pointing around the room as he spoke, Grossman continued, “But you’ve still got those fire sprinklers, those fire exit signs, fire hydrants outside, and fire trucks nearby! Are these fire guys crazy? Are these fire guys paranoid? No! This fire guy is our A+ student! Because this fire guy has redundant, overlapping layers of protection, not a single kid has been killed by school fire in the last 50 years!"
The enemy is denial.
“But you try to prepare for violence — the thing much more likely to kill our kids in schools, the thing hundreds of times  more likely to kill our kids in schools — and people think you’re paranoid."
An example.
“Come with me to the library at Columbine High School,” Grossman said. “The teacher in the library at Columbine High School spent her professional lifetime preparing for a fire, and we can all agree if there had been a fire in that library, that teacher would have instinctively, reflexively known what to do.
"But the thing most likely to kill her kids — the thing hundreds of times more likely to kill her kids, the teacher didn’t have a clue what to do. She should have put those kids in the librarian’s office but she didn’t know that. So she did the worst thing possible — she tried to secure her kids in an un-securable location. She told the kids to hide in the library — a library that has plate glass windows for walls. It’s an aquarium, it’s a fish bowl. She told the kids to hide in a fishbowl. What did those killers see? They saw targets. They saw fish in a fish bowl.
Unfortunately, I still see partial, denial-of-target strategies that simply make it easier for the shooter.  I see fire/evacuation drills where students are tidily assembled outside in long, closely spaced lines.  I see the rooms that lock-down occurs in....doors with glass panels and unreinforced windows immediately beside them.

It is sometimes necessary to invest in facilities as we ask the facilities to serve functions that were not comprehended when they were designed.  At the very least, I think the liberal application of tinted security film on all windows that are in, and next to doors is warranted.

I also endorse the idea of either holding hands in circles of 4-to-8 people and singing I'd Like to Teach the World to Sing or to train-dance.  Almost anything is better than to stand around like the Egyptian Air Force on June 5, 1967.



Monday, November 4, 2013

Institutional Blindness

Some things are too important to leave to experts


I worked for two years at a large plant in Southeast Michigan that included metal, paint and general assembly operations.  This was during a time when many plants were being closed and tensions were extremely high.  It was common to see both management and labor walking around with this book.

Hazards


There are two kinds of evacuations.  One is the kind that you schedule and announce everyday for a week in advance.  The other kind is unplanned.

The first evacuation drill I experienced there took us outside and immediately turned us right...into an active fork-truck area.  These were monstrously large fork-trucks.   Pedestrians were forbidden in the area.  Except during the evacuation drill.  The yard had been idled for the duration of the drill.  I have little faith that would occur during a "real" evacuation.


After leaving the fork-truck area we had to cross an active rail spur.

Then we had to walk in front of an active trucking dock.  This is the portion of the loading dock where semi tractor-trailers back up to the dock.  Incoming truck drivers would be unaware of an unplanned evacuation.  Pedestrians were forbidden in the area.  Except during the evacuation drill.

The evacuation route then walked us past a tank farm that included flammable liquids and compressed gasses.

Finally it led down a ramp to a sub-grade "sump".  The sump was bounded by a 30 degree blacktopped slope and a 10 foot high, razor wire topped, chain link fence to the west.  The fence had a hedge on the other side of it to serve as a visual barrier to the surrounding businesses.  The sump was bounded by the plant on the north and east sides.  The walls of the plant were approximately 65 feet high.  On the south, the sump was bounded by the ramp that we had walked into it on.

Worst case scenarios


If the evacuation were due to an active shooter in the plant, there would be about 400 people packed in the bottom of a 75 foot by 150 foot  sump with little means for egress.  The shooter moving to the roof or the top of the ramp would be a problem.  There would be very high mortality.  Pretty much the same outcome if there were a fire in the tank farm or paint shop spewed a cloud of toxic fumes into the sump.

It was a death trap.

Objections raised with the safety department were answered with, "Corporate approved it."  It was clear that the safety director was more interested in checking-off-the-box than in keeping me safe.

Packing our own parachutes


I then had a heartfelt discussion with three of my more worldly co-workers.

Tom competed in IDPA (International Defense Pistol Association) events.

Andy was the one of the calmest and most serene men I know.  He found joy and solace in shooting coyotes at long range.

Chuck was just an all-round shooter.

They told me that they had a plan.  In the event of a real evacuation, they planned to turn left, not right, as they left the building  They were going to walk out to their vehicles and drive home.  Once home, they were going to call the boss and tell him they were OK.  "Even if it is a fire," Tom said, "how do we know it was not set by a 'shooter'?"

I thought that was an OUTSTANDING plan.

Epilogue


That plant is no longer in operation.

Sunday, November 3, 2013

Civil Discourse

The Captain and I had an over-the-fence discussion about a recent playground scuffle that occurred at one of the Eaton Rapids Schools.

What was notable about the scuffle was that nobody saw it coming.

It used to be that there was an elaborate escalation leading up to actual fisticuffs. It was like watching tom turkeys strutting, drumming and hissing.  There was not a rigid script but there was an expectation that each aggressor would tag certain bases before the event became fully physical.

The new order


The new order of things seems to be to skip steps in the escalation.

The ridiculous extreme is where the school kid quietly walks up behind the other guy and "caps" him in the back of the head.  Standing over the corpse, the perp hollers, "That's because my aunt's, boyfriend's, sister's, hairdresser said she heard you dissin' me.......Oh, wait.  You ain't Marcus!  Where the hell is Marcus?"

The tragedy is that each level of escalation provided an off-ramp from the highway to hell.   <=====This is the Heinrich's Law tie-in

Much of modern culture seems to operate at the second and third levels of escalation.  In my day, trash talking and calling the other party mo-fo were well into the "you are on your way to getting your azz kicked."  That seems to be the level that qualifies as "civil" discourse on many playgrounds and ball courts.

The road to perdition is also shortened by the rush to gain tactical advantage.  Escalating faster than the other party throws them off-balance and gives you a tremendous advantage.  Skipping steps has become the default mode in many places.  It  is common knowledge that the first to file for divorce gains the same tactical advantage...so it is not just a playground thing.


Training


Today it seems that much of our children's education comes from movies and video games.  The playground culture(s) that evolved the escalation process...defined the bases...has been effectively snuffed out by "Zero Tolerance" for violence.

I was not an angel in school but I did not qualify as a hellion either.  I can remember 7 or 10 "altercations" in which I was one of the principles.  My sense is that Captain's experience in playground kerfluffles dwarfed mine.

Both the Captain and I think that something important was lost out there on the playground since we were kids.

Videos

I am still experiencing difficulties in embedding items in Blogger.  The links to the following video clips are included for you viewing and listening enjoyment.

HA Bully  

Turkeys

Sandlot

Saturday, November 2, 2013

Bridgestone's Law of Quality

Bridgestone is a major manufacture of tires and other rubber products.

Their "Law of Quality" was told to me by Darwin Foster, a Quality Engineer in the Automotive Industry.  I have not been able to verify it.

Bridgestone's Law of Quality


It is imperative to be highly responsive to all written communications.

For every customer letter that finds the proper person in the quality department, there are ten that were improperly addressed and did not make it to their destination.

For every ten improperly addressed letters, there are one hundred that unhappy customers either wrote, or started to write but did not get into the mail.

For every hundred who started to write a letter there are one thousand customers who are upset, they know why they are upset but do not have the energy to write a letter.

For every one thousand unhappy customers who can articulate why they are dissatisfied, there are ten thousand customers who cannot articulate why they are not satisfied.  They just know that our product is "not quality" and will not buy our product again.

So every correspondence  that makes it to our quality department must be considered a proxy for ten thousand dissatisfied customers and our response should reflect that.

The Bridgestone Law of Quality is Heinrich's Law as applied to communication.

It is similar to rings of anti-aircraft defense.  Each ring filters or attrites a percentage of the incoming aircraft.  Communication is not only subject to attrition, it is also subject to spin as illustrated by this

...And darkness was upon the face of the workers. And they spoke among themselves saying,
"It is a crock of shit and it stinketh."
And the workers went unto their supervisors and said,
"It is a bucket of dung and none may abide the odor thereof."
And the supervisor went unto their managers and said,
"It is a container of excrement and it is very strong, such that none may abide by it."
And the managers went unto their directors, saying,
"It is a vessel of fertilizer, and none may abide its strength."
And the directors spoke among themselves, saying to one another,
"It contains that which aids plant growth and it is very strong."
And the directors went unto the vice presidents, saying unto them,
"It promotes growth and is very powerful."
And the vice presidents went unto the president, saying unto him,
"The new plan will promote the growth and vigor of the company, with powerful effects."
And the president looked upon the plan and saw that it was good.
And the plan became policy.
This is how shit happens.


Friday, November 1, 2013

Heinrich's Law. A Case Study


---Fiction---


Frank was working on the B-2 assembly line and needed to use the restroom.  He called his team leader who covered for him while he ran to the can.

While walking to the can, Frank pulled out his smart phone to catch up on the latest football scores.  He crossed over the B-1 line and walked between a couple of stacks of empty material totes (boxes).  Stepping out into the aisle, he was hit by a tugger that had just come around the corner pulling three full material carts.

Frank's boot wedged between the front of the tugger and the concrete floor.  He tried to spring free but only succeeded in adding to his momentum as his body arched and the back of his head hit the concrete.

The human head is well armored against frontal impacts.  We have soft, squishy noses, lips and break-away teeth in front.  We have God's original air bags (sinuses) parked between our brains and the front of our skull.  We even have pressure relief valves, eyeballs, that can bulge outward and minimize peak pressures.

The human head is very fragile with regard to rear impacts.  No soft, squishy features.  No sinuses.  No pressure relief valves.  Obviously, there was far more selection pressure on the gene pool for frontal impacts (since we are typically moving forward and impact forward) than for rear impacts.

Frank was 52, a smoker and coffee drinker.  He had high blood pressure and cheesy arteries.  Several of those small arteries ruptured and created pressure within his skull.  That pressure jammed his brain stem (medulla) down into the top of his spinal column.  The brain stem controls involuntary body functions like breathing.

The Emergency Room surgeons sawed around the top of his skull at the level of his hair line.  The top of his skull lifted fifteen millimeters as the last of the bone separated.

Despite the heroic efforts of the Emergency Medical Technicians, the ambulance driver and the Emergency Room staff....Frank died.

So, what happened?

In flow-chart form


Red arrows are "Necessary Conditions" and arrow points in direction of causality

In the report:

The Five Whys:
1.) Why did Frank die?
----Frank died because he was struck by a tugger

2.) Why was Frank struck by a tugger?
----Frank was struck by the tugger because the tugger driver did not see him.

3.) Why did the tugger driver not see Frank?
----The tugger driver did not see Frank because he was not in a pedestrian aisle and did not wave.

4.) Why did Frank not wave to get the tugger driver's attention.
----The tugger driver reported that Frank was looking down.

5.) Why was Frank looking down>
----A smart phone was recovered at the scene that belonged to Frank.  It is believed that Frank was distracted and looking at his cell phone.

Root cause, Frank was looking at his cell phone.

Obviously, the report is a nice, tidy, straight line.  It was Frank's fault.  He was not paying attention.  But how do you prevent it from re-occurring?  Frank was acting no differently than many other employees and following a path he had walked hundreds of times before.

The rest of the story

Blue arrows are "Quenching Condition" like water on a fire.  This is a a take-off from TRIZ Problem Solving
Something had changed.  The empty totes obstructed the line of sight for the tugger driver.

The Material Department had recently changed over from fork trucks to tuggers.  A fork truck could only takes out one or two baskets at a time and then picked up the emptys or returned to the dock "dead-head".  The tuggers can pull up to four trailers and run a "race track".  A fully loaded train has no room for all the empties at the first station.  Room becomes available as more material is unloaded further along the race track.

The increased productivity of the tugger approach resulted in several people being "reduced out" of the Material Department.  The remaining employees were pushing back.  They saw the shortcomings of the new system but were alienated and had no interest in solving them.

Again, let me note that this is FICTION

 

Sidebar: Dry erase boards, blue and red pens and yellow sticky notes


While that nice, tidy, straight line of cause-and-effect makes for a good report, it is not a great way to solve problems.

A better way is to start writing the causal factors onto yellow sticky notes.  Place them on a dry erase board and connect them with red arrows.  Mitigating factors can also be written on sticky notes and they can be connected in with blue arrows.  As a general rule, the more "Necessary Conditions" going into an factor (hazard), the more vulnerable it is to mitigation

The advantage of using sticky notes is that they can be moved.  Additional layers of complexity can be inserted into the story as more information becomes known.


Unwinding the story


Let's unwind the story to highlight how Heinrich's Law plays into it.

If Frank had been genetically endowed with stronger blood vessels, or if he had practiced better health habits, he would not have sustained severe brain bleeding.  He would have had some memory loss and a broken leg.  (Very severe accident but not fatal)

If Frank had been wearing different footwear, his foot would not have become wedged beneath the tugger.  He would have sustained a broken leg. (Severe accident)

If Frank's favorite team had not been playing or he complied with shop rules regarding wireless devices, he would have seen the tugger and been able to move out of the way....either not getting hit or just getting brushed.  (Minor accident)

If the material totes were not allowed to stack up then the tugger would have been able to see Frank and stop in time. (Near miss)

If there were stop signs at the corner the tugger would have been moving slowly enough to stop or avoid Frank. (Near miss)

If Frank had not been in a hurry and had taken the pedestrian aisle way he would not have encountered the tugger coming around the corner. (No event)

Heinrich's Law of Safety

A generalized statement of Heinrich's law is that industrial accidents follow a pyramid structure similar to the energy flow in a biological food chain.  Many minor incidents on the bottom.  Fewer, more severe accidents on top.

A fatality is a severe accident where the victim was unlucky and factors aligned such that the severity was sufficient to cause death.  There were many severe accidents (perhaps 10) which were not fatal for every fatality.

The important part of this concept is NOT the ratio.  It is not possible to define a fixed ratio since we are talking about luck and semi-random chance.  The two important things to grasp are that the ratio is small-but-significant and that fatalities are larger specimens of the same species as severe accidents.

A severe accident is no different than a minor accident except the victim was unlucky and factors aligned such that the severity was amplified.  There are many minor accidents (perhaps 100) for every ten severe accidents.  Example:  A pedestrian reacts more slowly to on-coming mobile equipment and is struck squarely rather than a glancing strike.

A minor accident is no different than a no-injury accident except the victim was unlucky and factors aligned such that the severity was amplified.  There are many no-injury accidents (perhaps 1,000) for every hundred minor accidents.  An example of a no-injury accident would be where the pedestrian is brushed by the mobile equipment but skin is not broken.

A no-injury accident is no different than a near-miss except the victim was unlucky and factors aligned such that the severity was amplified.  There are many near-misses (perhaps 10,000) for every thousand no-injury accidents.  An example of a near-miss would be where no contact is made...perhaps the mobile equipment swerved and some property damage (paint scarring) occurred or the pedestrian looked up in time to adjust his path.

A near-miss is no different than a hazard except the victim was unlucky and factors aligned such that the severity was amplified.  There are many hazards (perhaps 100,000) for every ten thousand near-misses.  An example of a hazard might occur each time mobile equipment operates in a footprint that is smaller than optimal.  Example, a fork truck moving material and contacting a guard rail when backing up.

Corollaries


It is not possible to prevent a fatality.  It is rarely possible to recognize a fatal incident before the fact. A fatality is often a matter of inches and fractions of seconds (pedestrian-mobile equipment accidents), or millimeters (electrical equipment), or grams (reloading ammunition), or milligrams or a letter in a name (pharmaceutical).


A fatality occurs when somebody encounters a hazard and is exceptionally unlucky.

Fatalities are so rare that it is impossible to validate the effectiveness of countermeasures.

The only effective way to eliminate accidents, including the ones that result in fatalities, is to eliminate exposure to hazard.

Things like:

---better pictures will be uploaded when #$%^&*@ Blogger cooperates---


 Obstructed view, driveway



Trip hazards and Exposed "sharps"

Entanglement hazards


Potential energy hazards (Called widow-makers in the wood lot).