Inflation, wages and buying power

One of the side-conversations that happened during yesterday's family event was with my oldest brother.

He was marveling that employers were offering entry-level jobs that required no special skills at $30 an hour and were not getting many job applications.

He remembers working for a lot less money than that. He also remembers when new employees started at a lower rate and then their wages increased with longevity.

Inflation

There are many "official" inflation values that are published. A common flaw in most of those published calculations is that they leave out "the volatile food, fuel and housing" costs.

It is commonly understood that the Fed has a "target" inflation level and they "print" money to hit that target. Their logic is that an expanding economy needs more money in circulation to support the increased number of economic transactions. 3% annual inflation is a commonly mentioned target.

If you divide the aforementioned $30/hr by the effects of the published rate of inflation, then a worker earning about $16.67/hr twenty years ago has the same buying power as somebody earning power as today's $30/hr (ignoring the effects of income taxes).

If you accept that the real loss of purchasing power is at least 6% after factoring in non-hedonistically* adjusted food costs, fuel and housing, then  $9.40/hr provided the same purchasing power in 2006 that $30/hr does in 2026.

"Working your way up..."

My brother also mentioned his amazement that the "kids" entering the work-force feel that they are entitled to the highest pay-rate from the very first hour they work. "Back in the day" you had to be with a firm for five or ten years before you hit top-of-pay-scale.

I think that "pay me that now" attitude is due to the fact that employees no longer expect to work for the same firm their entire lives. Pensions only exist in the public sector so there is very little penalty to job-hopping. Since they only expect to be employed at the firm for three-to-ten years, there is expectation of being around to reap promises of better treatment in the future. Consequently, the pay-ramp of the past has no appeal to the transient workforce.

My brother isn't worried about his kids. They are in their forties and well-launched. He is worried about the world his three grand-daughters and one grand-son will have to navigate.

I also share his worries, but for different reasons. I like to think that my kids/grandkids will have a robust set of problem-solving tools in their toolbox. But what is going to bite them in the backside will be the accelerating overhang of debt. All of that "free stuff" that politicians are promising isn't free. It is purchased with borrowed money. 

Historically, the only viable move for the government is to debase the currency and for firms to shrink-and-cheapen the goods and services they offer. First slowly. Then rapidly.

*"Hedonistic adjustments" are a slight of hand used by economists to make inflation look lower than it is. Suppose you eat a rib-eye steak in a decent restaurant every Friday. As prices go up and your paycheck doesn't, then most buyers stairstep downward in their choices. They buy a cheaper steak, they start eating at less expensive restaurants, eventually they are eating Bar-S hotdogs and then they are eating a can of beans at home. The economists don't count that as inflation because the buyer is getting the same amount of protein and their enjoyment stays the same.

Summer is more than half over

Mrs ERJ and I attended a funeral yesterday. It was for the husband of a couple we had known at church. They were the parents of one of our kid's soccer coaches and Mrs ERJ had worked with their daughter. There were other intersections in our lives, primarily shared difficulties that most people don't have to deal with.

The deceased was 84 years-old and died of dementia. That is a tough way to go. Tough for the person who has it. Even tougher for the close family and caretakers.

One thing that was notable was the number of people who attended. The average Sunday service in this church is about 100 +/- 30 people. There were about 130 people at this funeral, a number that is phenomenal for somebody of that age at a funeral on a Saturday in the middle of the summer.

It was a tribute to the quality of the deceased that several of the people who attended the service were EXTREMELY uncomfortable in church. Their body-language radiated "I want to escape". And yet they were there. They hugged the family members who they were there to support. 

Garden news

About 40 feet of row were planted to Daikon radish seeds yesterday.

The lawns in the area are turning brown. Looking at the last 30 days of rain and evaporation-potential, income is about 3" short of outgo.

Chinese cabbage, Japanese iris and bayberry seedlings

A week ago

The fall-and-winter vegetable planting guide from Territorial Seed Company. There is still time to plant those unused corners of your garden. Territorial Seed is based in Oregon.

If you live in the northern tier of states, then you think of "summer" as June, July and August. By that measure, summer is more than half over.

For the record, I picked our first two cucumbers yesterday. 

The Family Event

My sister organized a fishing derby for "the grandkids"

Poles/rods and reels and bait were provided. The kids were taken out on a pontoon boat or were allowed to fish from shore. "Q" was at the head of the Leader-board with 10 fish. "L" caught the biggest fish. "S" was given the award for being the bravest because she kissed every fish she caught. Every kid got a prize for something.

A pretty piece of music

Kids and their parents out picking wild berries. For the kids, the adventure is half work and half play. A rain comes up. It is not a big deal.

I enjoyed the background music even though I couldn't understand a single word of it. 

Memories are made. 

Fishing, cherries and squirrels

 

My fishing-buddy Shotgun on the left, the Thornapple River on the right

My set-up.

We were fishing behind the Good Times Pizza place. There was lots of evidence of fishing pressure. We didn't catch any fish. A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work.

For the record, Good Times Pizza does not sell pizza-by-the-slice in the evening but they do sell ice cream cones if you need a bite to eat on the way home.

Cherries

Some of the releases from the U-of-S breeding program

I am struggling to get excited about planting cherry trees or bushes.

The University of Saskatchewan cherry breeding program has been in motion for about seventy years and they released almost a dozen "bush" sour or "pie" cherries in the last decade. Every release seeming to be an improvement on the last. It is notable that the bushes stay shorter than 10' tall and that the cherries are highly pigmented.

Northstar sour cherry. Northstar is a naturally small tree. Released by University of Minnesota

All of these varieties are extremely cold-hardy and you would think that I would be excited about them.

However, most of the U-of-S releases are small, i.e. 4 grams or 110 to the pound. "Cupid" and "Wowza!" are exceptions at 70 to the pound. Sweet cherries like "Bing" run 45 to the pound. That size means that mechanical cherry-pitters will struggle to handle them. The small size and red color also makes them highly attractive to starling-sized birds.

Another downside, for me, is the lateness of their ripening season. I seem the "Dacha" folks growing lots of cherries and it fills a hole in the fruit ripening season. That is, late-June and early-July. Cupid and Wowza! ripen in late-August so they are competing, labor-wise, with peaches, plums and early pears.

Looking at the labor required to prepare late-ripening pie-cherries for the table vs other fruits, peach cobbler is far less labor than a cherry pie and will feed more people.

So...I am going to leave my wallet in my pocket and not plant any of these. Sometimes and in some places "No" is the correct answer.

The war against squirrels

I got one with the shotgun yesterday. He knew I was there and was hiding. I played a You-tube short of a juvenile red squirrel chattering and he couldn't stand it. 20 gauge, cylinder choke, 7-1/2 shot, 30 yards. The lesson is that losing your temper can get you killed.

Suddenly, I want a WIFI speaker for my phone. I visualize placing it about ten paces away from me and playing this video. My thinking is that they will not be focusing on me, plus, the speaker will be louder than my phone.

On-the-other-hand, I was working in the garden with Mrs ERJ when I heard a 110 body-grip trap go off. I went to investigate and saw that I had captured a red squirrel by his left-rear quarter and he was dangling in the air. Since I didn't want to disturb Mrs ERJ by euthanizing the catch I waited a few minutes for her to go into the house. In that short time, the swinging squirrel had managed to grab some clutter on the ground and twist himself out of the trap.

Lesson learned: Mount the traps so the lowest point on the trap is at least 15" from anything on the ground when it is hanging by its chain. 2' is even better.

The bad news is that I now have a trap-wise squirrel in the barn. 

Today's work-tickets

Go to a funeral.

Go to a family event.

Plant a row of radishes. 

Just a passing thought

I don't know who needs to see this, but B.F. Skinner taught pigeons to fly drones on kamikazi missions. He used conditioning, that is food, to teach the birds to peck at the base of the Japanese aircraft carrier's superstructure. When they pecked the proper place, they got  kernel of corn. The plan was to put a grid over the airplane's canopy (window) and the pigeon's pecking would be converted to an electronic signal that activated servos that adjusted flaps.

Compared to that, teaching pigeons and starlings to defecate on the solar panel that powers Flock cameras is a piece of cake. Fabricate a dozen mock-flocks. Put a feed trough that will positions the rear-end of the bird over the photo-cell. Birds typically de-ballast just before they start flying.

The assumption is that the birds will become habituated to perching on Flock cameras in a way that will result in an opaque (and corrosive) coating being deposited on the solar panel.

It is poetic justice if flocks of starlings and pigeons become the "Flock" spy camera's undoing.

As far as I know, there are no laws against ornamental bird feeders.
 

Bonus video: My primary home-defense weapon is a chihuahua

 

A little bit of this and a little bit of that...

Much to my surprise, I got most of my work-tickets finished yesterday.

Bamboo poles to support tomato vines as they out-grow the feedlot panel. Before weeding.

The ducks like to hang-out beneath the willow bush on the right side of photo and in the background.
 

After weeding, from the other side.

Tomato, not Rose de Bern

Plant from same seed package, might be Rose de Bern. Most of the tomatoes on this plant are as round as ball-bearings.

A long truss of green tomatoes on Might be Federle. Note that they are not elongated.

Random photo of green Federle tomatoes pulled off the web. No long cluster. Very elongated and pointy.

Assessing 2,4-D effectiveness

Beneath the trees in the Upper Orchard

You can see where I missed a patch on the left side of the photo. It provides a nice before/after comparison.

 

Not every type of weed is as visibly hammered as these were. Perennials like goldenrod that are mature enough that their stems hardened-up are yellowing and only the succulent tops are twisting. The older burdock seems unaffected so far.

While I was visiting I sprayed the Keepsake apple tree with calcium and lugged water to the eleven newest trees.

The P2.5 air-quality is predicted to be bad today but (likely) better on Saturday. 

Nashville scouting report

The fishing site behind the Assembly of God church is not viable. I parked in the church parking lot to check it out. I walked to the edge of the pavement and stopped. It was clearly part of a yard that belonged to the house next door.

I had turned around and was walking back to my truck when I heard the door of that house open and a man called "Can I help you?". Midwest friendly.

I mentioned that I was looking for a place to go fishing but I wasn't going to sneak across his yard.

It turned out that he is the Pastor of that church. We had a wide-ranging conversation. He was a very easy guy to talk to.

He showed me the one place where I could get down to the river. It was behind some apartments. The bank was steep and stabilized with slabs of broken concrete. Absolutely treacherous for anybody older than 12 years-old.

The public boat-launch.

The channel didn't look as promising as behind the church but the access was wide-open.

The old dam-site was also mowed and a couple of kids were fishing there and looks very promising. No pictures taken as I wasn't carrying my phone.

Quaker Brook south of the Dollar General store

Quaker Brook also had access but was very mosquito-y. The water was 12"-to-18" deep. It looks like a prime place to catch suckers in the spring before the mosquitoes go crazy.

Potatoes

The last two things I did yesterday were to set a trap for a raccoon and to dig some potatoes before turning on the sprinkler in the garden.

A little more than two-pounds of potatoes from one hill. These were microwaved and will be used as needed.

Fake News Friday

Apparently, there is an AI app dedicated to composing "Dear John" letters. It is named "Maria" 

Some pictures from the County Fair

 

Smoke from the fire in northwestern Ontario

Not crowded at all

Closeup of a cooling station

Same station from farther back

The display was made from fiber-art. All of the display sampes were knitted.

A practical sewing project

Another denim dress with classic lines

A basket woven from Black Ash, some strips natural, other dyed.

Some photos

More photos

4-H Shooting Sports

A close-up showing some of the images

As Mrs ERJ and I were leaving, we saw the Military Recruiting booths.

I stopped and chatted with a Navy representative, last name of DuPont. I was not able to determine his rank.

We talked a little bit about Hegseth's push to test military personnel for testosterone. Link

One of the electricians I worked with had been diagnosed with low T. After the doctor prescribed supplemental T, he needed three hours less sleep a night and still had more pep than before.

To satisfy my curiosity, I asked DuPont "What is the longest period that you have had to remain awake in one stretch?"

"I was once required to be awake for 68 hours straight. I am a medic and I was supporting a Marine unit that was unable to re-link with the rest of the unit. My patient had lost a lot of blood and had second and third degree burns. Protocol required that I check vitals every five minutes and push more IV fluids when he needed them."

The recruiter standing next to him said "You got me beat. I did 48 hours at least twice." That recruiter was a Figherfighter-Trainer, so I assume that occurred when he was either fighting a fire or was in a simulation situation.

They also touched on the fact that military are exposed to toxic chemicals more often than civilians. Many of those chemicals, especially the halogenated ones, often have hormone-like effects which can interfere with natural hormone production.

I don't want to sound snarky, but the Progressive applauded when Biden's military used tax-payer money to inject women with male hormones and men with women's hormones. It seems disingenuous to feign angst when Hegseth proposes monitoring testosterone.