Some thoughts on Contingency Plans

Running notes

3.2 miles in 42 minutes.

Some pictures

Dinner. Frozen pizza embellished with home-grown onions and sweet pepper slices.

First egg from our new Khaki Campbells.

"Charlotte, is that you?"

It is a big year for puffball mushrooms. Deer trail running from bottom of photo to top slightly to the left of center.

 

Satellite Orchards

A million years ago, I attended a weekend seminar on Project Management. The instructor was a professor from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and he understood the attraction rabbit-holes hold for the engineering mind.

Some of his pearls-of-wisdom were:

"Don't measure a pile of shit with a micrometer"

"Field-orders are a reality, budget 25% for it unless you have historical data"

"You need contingency plans for events along the critical path, but you only need ONE plan for each node." 

He elaborated on each point, of course, but the one I want to write about is the last one.

He told a story from his own past. He was the head of a team designing and building a working model of an alternate energy propulsion vehicle. Seeing this as a way to demonstrate their engineering skills, the team embarked on an ambitious project involving a custom-built, carbon-fiber body, solar panel covered electric vehicle with custom high-pressure-low-rolling-resistance motorcycle tires.

The winner of the competition, which was held at a Big-Three proving grounds was a five-year-old, carburated, Ford Pinto pulling a trailer that carried a 100 pound LP pig.

Bottomline: Your backup plan must be dirt-simple, quick-to-execute and extremely robust. That almost always means grabbing off-the-shelf solutions (when they exist) even when they are overkill or "wrong" or grossly inelegant. One of those kinds of plans is worth more than 100 complex, slow-to-execute "elegant" plans.

Dacha orchards

The property that the Upper and Hill Orchards is located on is also managed for field crops (which takes care of itself) and conservation. 

The portion that is being managed for conservation could, conceivably, be broken into parcels for "dachas" or economic lifeboats.

Ukraine and Russia have already been there and done that. Their economies were in a steep, downward glide-path through the mid-1970s until about ten years after the break-up of the USSR. Now they are struggling again due to the Uke-Rus war.

The dacha, their gardens and orchards are prime infrastructure keeping millions of them alive. So are the "commons" where they can graze farm animals and gather firewood, mushrooms, wild fruit and game.

If I were forced to parachute into an undeveloped property with the clothes-on-my-back, finding a small, producing orchard and berry patch already there could be a life-saver. Even if the varieties were not ones I would choose.

Given that the implosion of the US economy at the magnitude of the Great Depression or the dissolution of the USSR is probably a low probability event*, I don't want to throw money at these orchards.

However, I have a small nursery that I can move trees from and suckers from existing berry bushes. It is not that these are the BEST choices. It is that these choices are the ones that are off-the-shelf.

At this snap-shot-in-time

Three rows of five trees planted 16' within the rows and 24' between rows. Trees on semi-dwarf type roots. 15 trees. Seven species. Four genus.

I am not saying this is a great plan. I am saying this is a functional orchard that I can execute with a minimal outlay of additional money. I can buy peach and cherry rootstocks (about $6 each). I can purchase plum and cherry scionwood (I have sources of peach scion/budwood)

---Added after posting: Apparently St Julien plum rootstock is also compatible with peaches. That will save me a few dollars--- 

Ripening sequence

Mulberry: Late-June-through-mid-August

Cherries: Late-June-through-mid-July (Danube and WhiteGold cv)

Peaches: August (Contender or Cresthaven)

Plum: Late-August...Brooks European plum for canning and drying

Pear: HS, early-mid Sept. KG October

Apples: October. Tolman Sweet, Golden Russet, King David

Obviously, if somebody had the skills they could graft the trees over to the varieties they wanted. If they pruned judiciously, the trees would keep producing modest amounts of fruit as they switched the trees over.

The next step

Pound "T" posts into the ground to mark where each tree goes. Then spray 8' diameter patches of herbicide to kill the current vegetation.

 

*The real reason I do this kind of thing is because I enjoy it. Do I think it will happen? I hope not. For the time being, planting trees is a more productive and cheaper way to spend my time than drinking beer and chasing floozies in bars. I might never eat a single apple or cherry from these orchards but I find it is a great way to reduce my stress levels. 

Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed

That time U.S. Senate candidate El-Sayed fixated on J.D. Vance's children

Link to video  (posted April 17, 2026)

Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed is the Democrat candidate for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat. 

In 89 seconds of run-time (39:02-to-39:33 and 40:00-to-41:00), he mentions J.D. Vance's children FIFTEEN TIMES, often referring to them as "brown kids".

That creeps me out: A politician fantasizing about his opponent's children the way a drunk frat-boy babbles about his rape-fantasies.

By any rational standard, specifically mentioning anybody else's children FIFTEEN TIMES in a minute and a half, on a public podcast, is not normal. At a minimum, he is projecting his own prejudices against people-of-color. The most sinister interpretation of the dialog is that it is a veiled threat against the VPOTUS's family.

Decide for yourself

Transcript of relevant portion of the video (for those without the stomach or time to watch the video clip). I included a little bit of the lead-in to provide some context.

38:29: The most outlandish things. And I think he's (Vance) literally just saying it to kind of appease like the dorks in the conservative circles that could then clip it and make a funny video on the internet and make a meme. Whenever he speaks, I just it just comes off like gimmicky. It just comes off like Here's the thing

38:44: What do you think is going through Usha's head when he talks?

38:50: She's like, "Damn, I have to sleep with him." [laughter] I mean, like I mean, I guess she's pregnant, so I guess I guess something's happening. But like, man, like you got to imagine like truly zero charisma.

39:02: None. Right. And like can you imagine like he's got brown kids.

39:07: At some point he's going to have to have a really awkward conversation kids.

39:11: You'll be like, you know, like you made your career hating people who are friends and people that look like his kids. Yeah.

39:18: Saying I there was a video of him saying that it's completely okay for you to not want your neighbor to not speak English.

39:25: So I'm thinking I saw a photo of him at Thanksgiving. They're speaking Hindi. Weird. His kids his kids' grandparents. Mhm.

39:33: Like how you have that conversation with them. Yeah.

***He can't leave it alone***

(Still talking about J.D. Vance and speculating on his "lack of charisma")

40:00: And I don't know what's worse. Part of me is like it must suck to live inside your head to know that your entire politics is incoherent with the way you live your life.

40:10: How do you deal with that every day?

40:11: Like there's a cognitive dissonance that comes out and like maybe just sucks out his charisma. I don't huge like huge cognitive dissonance.

40:16: Just just absolutely because he's got to look at his kids and be like, "Yeah, those are brown kids.

40:19: They're mine." You know what I mean? And I had brown kids who was I have brown kids. I love my brown kids. And I think my brown kids are just as American as

40:26: everyone else. JD Vance has brown kids who thinks he he thinks are less American than everyone else. Like that's wild to look at your own kids and be

40:34: like you don't actually belong as much in this country that I brought you into. Yeah. That's that's so sad.

40:39: How do you like I just part of me is just like bro like it must break you every time you like hug your own kids. Like I'm so sorry.

40:46: One of these days we're going to see the kids that are going to grow up and we're going to hear from them. We're going to hear their story.

40:50: We are. And you know the funny thing about it is JD Vance is is his kids are probably going to grow up and like do everything they can to undo his politics. I mean and I hope they will like honestly because they'll be more coherent than he will.

41:01: True. I mean that is true. Just and honestly like JD Vance's kids I love you. Like Usha like get out. Okay. Still got time.

I am struggling to not editorialize. You have brains and life-experiences. Use them.

After the fall

The Youtube creators seem to be in agreement. After a certain age we mark time as "Before the fall" and "After the fall". Falling is never a grand thing. For many people, a fall results in a hospital stay and a big step-down in ability and independence.

Having nothing better to do, I am going to pretend to be an expert in falling.

Charles Page

Charles was one of my coffee drinking buddies and was in his mid-80. I was pulling into the Burger King and I saw him crossing the parking lot and he was almost to the door.

I gave a very short toot on the horn and watched him collapse in a heap like a fainting goat when they hear a semi set the air-brakes.

He extraordinarily cheerful about he event. "I fall once a week. You did me a favor. Today is Monday so I should be good until next week."

Then he told me "I learned a long time ago to fall like a bag of potatoes. Don't try to catch yourself, 'cause you will tear your rotator cuff or break your wrists. Just go down like all the strings holding your bones together got cut."

Sage advice from somebody who had lots of practice.

The physical attributes that make moving forward while upright

Obviously, it takes balance to stand upright. If you have been bed-ridden for an extended time, you lose the hang of it. You also get out-of-practice if you spend too many hours of the day sitting.

You can help yourself if you concentrate on carrying your weight mid-foot. Think of each foot as an old-fashioned roller-skate. You want equal weight on all eight wheels. That gives you maximum time to make corrections if you get bumped or hit by a bit of wind...regardless of the direction it comes from.

Intentionally balancing is something you can train yourself to do.

A sudden lack of balance points to underlying medical issues like an ear infection, low blood pressure when standing or even brain tumors. Seek medical attention if you experience sudden changes. 

Flexibility is also important. It is very tempting to over-correct if you don't have much flexibility OR you can severely strain a muscle or your back if you are not whippy enough.

There is no substitute for leg and core strength. Some falls are due to lose of traction and you don't want to do the splits. More strength means you have more ability to modulate your recovery response.

I believe that many broken hips (actually a fracture of the femur's trochantor) are due to a person with weak leg muscles panicking and taking the impact of stepping down with a locked knee. The shock of the impact runs right up the fibula and femur and the fusible link is the brittle trochantor.

Reaction time comes into play. Likely, more falls occur when we are tired and have slower reaction time. We start to topple and we don't process the fact until our fall is inevitable. I suggest that we avoid obstacle courses when we are tired.

As a side-note, if you know you are going to be in an environment with a higher risk of falling...say you are attending a party where you know the patio blocks are heaved...avoid the adult-beverages and avoid riding the merry-go-round. 

Mrs ERJ surprised me when she suggested vision is important. How many falls are caused by tripping on something that we didn't see. Maybe the room was dark. Maybe the wire was the same color as the tall grass. Maybe our bellican obscured our view of our feet and we missed the fact that there was one more step to the ladder.

Another way that vision comes into play is that it supplements the balance feedback from our inner-ears. Our eyes seek the horizon and provide our brain with supplemental information about the direction gravity should be acting in. 

Mrs ERJ's suggestion was to practice bending over and picking up items from the floor; even if it might be more efficient or easier to sweep them up or to use a "grabber". For one thing, it reduces slip-trip hazards. For another thing, it improves your flexibility and core-strength. 

And if all else fails, do a Charlie Page, pick a soft looking bit of asphalt and go limp. Strive to keep your noggin from denting the pavement, but other than that, go with the inevitable.

Another day in paradise

Blogger does not seem to be accepting comments at the moment.

I have no control over that. Sorry.

Gym notes 

I slept in until 7:00 AM this morning. Pure decadence.

Mrs ERJ and I went to the  gym. I performed my maintenance routine. Nothing special. I tried one set at 225 but didn't feel strong and I only did 4 reps.

While walking in, I saw that the gym was hosting a blood drive. After lifting, I popped in to donate. Unfortunately, my BPM stubbornly remained in the 104-to-102 BPM range and I was not able to donate.

Reloading notes

I have been fighting with reloading some .223 Remington. I kept blowing the decapping and expander out of the die.

I finally got it isolated to IK brass with an astoundingly aggressive crimp. I can tell by feel when I got one in the die. It is much faster to just run them and reject the ones that I can "feel" than it is to visually inspect every headstamp.

For those who do not know, ammo that is intended for military use has the primer staked in place by upsetting the brass around the rim of the primer pocket. That is so the primers do not back-out and potentially disabling the firearm.

Sometimes the necessity of warfare requires that old, less stable ammo be used. Sometimes it means the ammo is stored at less-than-ideal temperatures or shortages require that the ammo be loaded with more variable lots of powder. Or, the round can sit in the barrel which cold be 400 degrees F and the powder could ignite more quickly and generate more pressure than the system was designed for.

Another factor is that some military rifles have oversized chambers. It can be due to looser acceptance criteria for the reamers during the shortages of wartime production or it can be intentional because large chambers will accept dirtier and dented ammo. Firing ammo in an oversided chamber can cause the head to dilate as the pressures peak and the primer pocket gets larger and can fall out during cycling. Again, a loose primer can jam up the action.

Brass that is crimped is a pain to deal with when you are reloading. So is dealing with brass that was fired in oversized or fluted chambers.

Never-the-less, I am grinding my way through this lot of brass and we will overcome.

Raising pigs

I am enjoying Homesteading the Hard Way channel which is mostly about raising pigs/hogs on a small scale.

The guy isn't smooth and polished. He doesn't candy-coat anything.

A very large tonnage of pork can be raised on a relatively small footprint. Pigs can extract protein from garden waste although to raise them quickly they need high-quality feed. There are some applications where hogs are an economical substitute for a wood-chipper.

To really save money, I think you almost need to butcher them yourself. That is more doable than butchering a steer because the animal is a more manageable size and there are assorted plans for "cold rooms" to hang multiple deer.

T-storms

We got a chain of thunderstorms starting at 2:00 AM today and it looks to continue through the day. We picked up an inch of rain and the weather-guessers think we might get another inch.

My location at the red-x. Storms are traveling in from northwest toward southeast.

The ducks are not happy that I didn't mix their dry, powdered feed (mash) with water. If I did, the inch of rain will turn it to soup.

I might do a little bit of carpentry today. 

Woodchucks

I usually dispatch woodchucks with body-grip traps or the might .22LR (Long Rifle).

Yesterday, due to an unusual confluence of events, I found myself looking at a woodchuck from a range of 15 yards and I had a 5.56mm NATO rifle in my hands. I had 77 grain TMK ammo in the magazine.

It was enough gun. Bang-flop. A hole in the east end and a much larger hole in the west end.

Dialing back

I decided to drop back to running every third day just like I am lifting. I will off-set them so I will have Lifting-Running-Rest, repeat.

I had been aiming to run every-other day and lift every third day. That inevitably resulted in running and lifting happening on the same day about once a week.

Data Centers

Based on the area that lacks cooling units, I suspect this facility is only running at half-capacity. All images from Google.

 So, "B" over at Middle of the Right asked, "What caliber for AI?" in a recent post.

I decided to look into the issue.

The picture shown above is a small, 70,000 square-foot data center. 

The power-switching yard that feeds it is approximately 800 feet away and feeds 138.00 kV underground to the facility.

 

8' by 20'. Ground mounted.

Each unit appears to have a fan mounted in the southwest corner. There are two pads on the west end of each row that does not have a unit on it. There may be a utility panel standing where the northwest end of the unit would be when it is installed.

 

Weird spacing for mobile offices

Whatever they are, they were important enough to erect Jersey barriers around them. 

Another anomaly

This factory was sold to a concern whose name suggest that they make tin-cans. A growth industry: Food in tin cans. Yep. I totally buy that story.

I drive by the factory about once a week. Very large HVAC units show up. Then they disappear. Who knew making tin cans required so much cooling power?

Blue Hill Wildlife Nursery

An odd thing happened today.

The home improvement project for this summer is slowly coming to the conclusion. The inspector will be showing up next week and hopefully that will be the end of it.

This week, a contractor showed up to perform some trenching and a few other tasks that needed to be done before the inspector shows up.

Mrs ERJ must be feeling under-the weather because she failed to direct me to stay out of the contractor's way. Consequently, I was chattering away while he was working up a sweat. He paused from what he was doing and pointed at the tree behind him and asked, "What kind of tree is that?".

"That is a persimmon tree. Deer love persimmons" I told him.

"I heard of them but I have never seen one" he told me. 

That got him to talking. He is a bow hunter and is managing some property to encourage deer while making it easier to harvest them in an ethical way. He has been drinking from the firehose on managing deer.

And then he started raving about a place he has done business with in Pennsylvania, Blue Hill Wildlife Nursery. They don't just sell plants, they are passionate about teaching guys like me and like him how to move the needle in terms of game animals and non-game animals.

Small world

I had the privilege of meeting Ryan in cyber-space. Ryan is one of the guys who runs the nursery and he is a very focused and results oriented guy. I looked through their catalog and as near as I can tell, they carry proven performers that can thrive in sub-optimal conditions.

Kerr apple-crab. Image from Blue Hill Wildlife Nursery catalog. Apple-crabs have smaller fruit than domestic apples (minimum of 2-1/2" diameter) but are larger than ornamental crabapples (arbitrarily smaller than 3/4" diameter).

For example, they offer Kerr apple-crab. Kerr fruits heavily even after experiencing -40 wintertime temperatures. It tends to biennial bearing but is very heavily loaded during the "on" years and it hangs onto its fruit until mid-winter.

They also offer Harrow Sweet, Korean Giant and Kieffer pears, all no-brainers in my book. 

They also offer "homesteader packages" which may be of interest. 

Their prices are about half the cost of what most boutique retail catalogs charge.

Small world! 

It is hard to stay on-task when it is hot outside

Quicksilver is going through a growth-spurt. She is eating everything in sight.

She followed down the stairs when I went to rotate my laundry. She said, "Let's crack some walnuts?"

So, I cracked them and she ate them. The walnuts are three years old but she thought they tasted just fine, and the flavor might have been just a bit sweeter since she had to work to tease the black walnut kernels out of the shells.

More technical oddities

Our attic fan has not been kicking on during the hot weather.

I assumed I had an electrical problem. I switched out the snap-disc switch for a new 110F close-on-rise and I put a few drops of oil into the fan's orifice and hand-spun the blade to ensure it spun freely and the oil was distributed.

It still didn't run during the heat of the day.

Curious, I opened up the access again and used my IR thermometer. Most of the bottom of the roof was +12 over ambient, that is 98F.

We had a white, steel roof installed about five years ago. Wow. What a difference.

Running notes

The first half mile was about 6:30. It was hot and humid.

I got about 2.7 miles before dropping to a walk. The last segment of the run was into the sun and with the wind. That is, it was hotter than the other three segments.

I committed to running a 5k as part of a team in early-October. I don't know if anybody else will be volunteering, but the plan is to pull together a team of five. I think there is a 50% chance that the team will not get four more volunteers.

If I end up running, I will be thrilled to break 40 minutes. It is a possibility if the weather is cooler and the course is flat and I drop five pounds. I have about 12 more runs to prepare.

Mowing

I made 3/4 of a lap around the yard with the lawn-tractor and the belt snapped.

It was too hot to push a mower.

So, to use the last bit of late-afternoon light, I adjusted the height of the mowing deck. I bought this mower from a guy who mowed a perfectly manicured lawn and he had it optimized for putting-greens. 

Random picture

Hot, Hungarian Banana (Wax) peppers