Thursday, April 3, 2025

March 2025

March 2025 was a great month for the ERJ clan.

Three of our four kids had HUGE things happen in their lives. I don't have permission to discuss particulars but they were good things.

Mrs ERJ and I have our anniversary in March. She still likes me and I adore and cherish her.

I have a family member who I had not been communicating with since about August of 2024. I had reached out tentatively a few times and got frosty responses. We mended fences in March. My relative accepts that I am a flawed human being and am a bone-head but loves me anyway. 

A beautiful voices


 

Two images

Progress to date.

 
An art composition titled "Primordial Soup"

Addressing a meme about immigration...

 

Harvested over at Wilder, Wealthy and Wise blog

I cannot answer for all immigrants, but in the case of Handsome Hombre*, his country of origin had very limited opportunities to work in his trade unless he was "connected". He was prevented from strengthening the economy of his native country because his identity was used to exclude him from "unions" and companies in cities.

In the United States, at least until very recently, employers did not care if you were black, white, brown, yellow or red. They did not care if you were Catholic, Protestant, Evangelical, Jew, Wican, Democrat, Republican or watched Sponge Bob reruns after work. They did not care if you were man, woman or other. They didn't care if you were tall, short, had six fingers or were legally blind. All they asked was "Can you do the job?**"

OK, it wasn't perfect that way. If you wanted to rise in management it helped if you graduated from the same University as the CEO and were a member of the same fraternity. But as a general rule, America was a meritocracy and that created opportunity that was denied elsewhere.

In American, all men who worked in the coal-mine were black and all men in the military bled red.

In India it MATTERS if you are Hindu, Muslim, Buddhist, Jainist, Sikh, Bengal or Tamil. Your caste matters and so does your province of origin.

In Syria or Iraq, it matters if you are Sunni, Shia, Druze, Christian or atheist.

In Central America, the city you were born in and your "family" matter.

Even in Ireland, it still matters if you are Catholic or Proddy.

The Tragedy

The tragedy is that powerful forces are working to turn the United States into India by making identity politics pervasive. "Jew", "Redneck", "Trailer park trash", "Bible thumper", "Native American", "Xenophobe", "Islamaphobe", "Trans-phobe", "Cis-male", blah, blah, blah...

Identity first, and then merit if it gets discussed at all.

The Legal System

You can ask "What made America unique?" 

America's legal system evolved from English Common Law while the legal systems in most other countries are either much more corrupt or are unholy hybrids of native systems and English Common Law.

Given the corruptness of the courts in places like Haiti where one parcel of property can have six owners, businesses do not become corporations but remain either family-businesses or have extremely narrow hiring criteria. It is an adaptive response to a partisan, rapacious and corrupt legal system.

*Applause for Handsome Hombre. He was recently sworn-in as a US citizen along with about 200 other legal immigrants. He is very, very proud of his new country.

Among the proudest American citizens you will ever meet are first-generation citizens who actually lived in countries where the game was totally rigged against the common man. And that would be most of the countries in the world.

Incidentally, the Judge who presided over the swearing in was Chief Judge Hala Y. Jarbou, herself a naturalized US citizen who was a member of a persecuted, religious minority in her country of birth. Her speech to the assembly was inspiring. 

**I supervised a quality inspector who was legally blind. He found as many defects as inspectors with "normal" eyesight and inspectors who were down-line of him did not catch any more "leakers" than for other inspectors. Even though he was legally-blind, he was not discriminated against.

He would even have been allowed to drive vehicles as long as he had a valid Michigan Driver's License. But since Michigan's S-o-S doesn't issue Driver's Licenses to blind people, that never became an issue.

How low can it go?

How low can it go?
 
The stock market, that is.
 
In general, I consider "Technical Analysis" of the stock market to be akin to looking at chicken entrails to predict the future. Technical Analysis involves looking at past prices and patterns of past prices to predict future prices.
 
The last five years of the S&P 500. From mid-2022 until mid-2023 the S&P 500 meandered between $3500 and $4000. The S&P 500 is currently trading at approximately $5600 or 50% above the lows of three years ago.

How-some-ever, I do believe that there is much value in looking at historic LOWS or "floors" from the previous business cycle.
 
A "floor" suggest that there are robust support mechanisms (mechanisms, plural) that prevent it from going below that value.
 
Unless the price of the S&P 500 penetrates $3500 downward, then the price realignment can be written of to "normal" market fear-greed dynamics and "normal" adjustments within the economy. To quote Forest Gump, "Shit happens". Don't sweat it. Hold your position. It is very likely to oscillate upwards unless several of the robust support mechanisms have been vaporized.
 
Normal oscillations recover more quickly than secular oscillations with the full cycle of a normal business cycle being on the order of four years...not coincidentally the frequency of the US Presidential election.
 
This is a good time to  reminder readers that diversity is your friend. The 50% upward climb from 2022-2023 was powered by relatively few companies. The recovery from the 2025 "adjustment" is likely to be powered by different industries, different companies. Since I claim no ability to read the future, the lowest risk way to benefit from the realignment of the economy is to invest in equity income funds.
 
As always, have some money in easily-accessed funds so you don't find yourself forced to sell when prices are distressed. "Bonds" and Money-market funds are also a cornerstone in diversifying your portfolio, although they function more as a preservation-of-capital element than as a growth element.
 

Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Helpin' a Sistah Out

 

Meghan's to-die-for grape jam
Meghan, my dearest friend in the whole, wide world reached out to me and thousands of other high-powered Mainstream Media personalities and asked us to shill praise promote gush-over her relaunched brand "What Evah".

I am not allowed to print Meghan's last name but it rhymes with "Success", and that is what my gurl Meghan is all about: Success!!!

Oddly enough, there is a county by that name in northern Indiana and it is filled with Amish families.

I am a bit miffed that Meghan demanded that I sign a non-disclosure agreement prohibiting me from identifying where these products are made but that is a small matter. 

I am sure you will agree that these are the finest, freshest products if you should ever chose to destroy their collector's value by opening one and trying the contents.

Help a sistah out and make Meghan's product launch one that she will never forget.

American Kestrels

 

You have probably seen these birds hovering over a hapless field-mouse as the raptor pinpoints its precise location before plunging in to harvest his lunch.

Range map. Green is present year-round. Amber is spring-summer-fall range.

Link

Kestrels, also known as Sparrow Hawks, are North America's smallest falcon. Some experts estimate that populations of the American Kestrel has plummeted by over 90% over the last fifty years.

The very high populations of fifty to one-hundred-fifty years ago were almost certainly a historical anomaly.

Among the probable "players" for the decline are loss of nesting habitat, disease and parasites, and loss of prime, foraging habitat.

Kestrels, along with several species of small owls, are cavity nesters. When there are not enough suitable sites available, continuous use results in a build-up of lice, ticks, nesting material, poor drainage and diseases. There are tons of plans for "Kestrel nesting boxes" on the internet.

The loss of prime foraging habitat is a tougher nut to crack.  Farmers almost always had pasture and that pasture always had a stair-step progression of grass in terms of height. It was heaven for mice and easy for avian foragers to hunt. 

Those small farms also made grain, used to feed livestock, available to English Sparrows. To a kestrel, a colony of English Sparrows is the equivalent of a drive-through window at a KFC.

Finally, those old farms seethed with insect life. The weight of the beetles, grubs and hossgrappers on an acre of pasture could easily outweigh the cow that was grazing it.

All of those components; rodents, birds and bugs are key elements of the American Kestrel's diet and suburban America with its manicured lawns, prodigious use of pesticides and poverty of grain-eating livestock contribute to that. Even commonplace technologies like power garage-doors contribute to the decline by trapping kestrels. The high-strung birds are likely to injure themselves in their frenzy to escape by smashing through windows.

None of the conditions listed above were common in most of pre-Columbian America. 

Hat-tip to Lucas Machias for the idea for this post.

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Not my best work, but not my worst, either

 

The three open spaces are approximately 48" by 29-1/4"
No, I did not choose the color of the walls. Tomorrow will see me filling in the rectangular open spaces and "mudding" the long seams.

Peach tree

I was at Menards today and this tree called my name. It is a "Contender" peach and was almost 6' tall and the price seemed reasonable. Contender is on the list for what I was going to plant in Southern Belle's orchard. Not having to graft it might save a year or two in terms of the tree starting to produce fruit.