Thursday, October 17, 2024

I watched part of Baier's interview with Harris

I don't think it will change very many minds.

Forgive me for being snide; I can see why she calls herself a "Brat". She cannot control herself when she doesn't get her way.

I have to admire Baier's artistry. He offered Harris a chance to repeat her allegations that Trump is mentally unfit for the office and then IMMEDIATELY counter-punched with "...and when did you first notice that Biden was unfit for the office?" implying that she is not a trustworthy witness for that kind of assessment.

Harris was oblivious to how she discredited her previous screed.

Also ironic is that Harris pointed to the turn-over in the White House staff during Trump's first presidency as evidence that he was too horrible of a person to be POTUS. Meanwhile, the Harris VP staff experienced almost 100% turn-over during her tenure. Again, she was completely oblivious to the three fingers pointing back at herself.

I wish he had book-ended most of her answers by observing "So even though you acknowledged that the American voters deserved an answer, you refused to answer the question as-asked."

The Fox staff also deserves some recognition. They flipped a graphic up on screen while Harris was bragging up how tough she was on Iran showing that Iran revenues more than doubled under Biden creating funds for terrorism.

A final bit of snark

The Harris supporters flooded social media with cheers about how well she did. Many of the comments, strangely, used similar wording. What caught my eye was "...she entered the Lion's Den..."

In my corner of the mid-West, there is a chain of porn-shops that cater to truck drivers. It is (or was) called "The Lion's Den". Freud is undoubtedly smirking in hell.

"Grants" and their impact on behaviors

There was a time when I thought I could turn my blog-writing-skills toward "writing grant applications". My thinking was that with inflation biting at my heals I might need additional income and "Writing grants" seemed like a natural evolution.

I recently had a very small taste of that activity and decided that my time will be better spent pulling weeds in the garden.

This is my current mental picture of "grants".

Arbitrary and capricious rewards/punishments

B. F. Skinner's lab did a landmark experiment with pigeons where they randomly rewarded the birds food. That is, they made food available to hungry pigeons for a short duration at random time intervals.

I think the original motivation was to determine if random rewards might be more suitable "control" while running experiments on behavioral-conditioning than feeding the birds short rations at regular intervals.

In the words of the published paper:

A pigeon is brought to a stable state of hunger by reducing it to 75 percent of its weight when well fed. It is put into an experimental cage for a few minutes each day. A food hopper attached to the cage may be swung into place so that the pigeon can eat from it. A solenoid and a timing relay hold the hopper in place for five sec. at each reinforcement.

If a clock is now arranged to present the food hopper at regular intervals with no reference whatsoever to the bird's behavior, operant conditioning usually takes place. In six out of eight cases the resulting responses were so clearly defined that two observers could agree perfectly in counting instances. One bird was conditioned to turn counter-clockwise about the cage, making two or three turns between reinforcements. Another repeatedly thrust its head into one of the upper corners of the cage. A third developed a 'tossing' response, as if placing its head beneath an invisible bar and lifting it repeatedly. Two birds developed a pendulum motion of the head and body, in
which the head was extended forward and swung from right to left with a sharp movement followed by a somewhat slower return. The body generally followed the movement and a few steps might be taken when it was extensive. Another bird was conditioned to make incomplete pecking or brushing movements directed toward but not touching the floor...

***

The experiment might be said to demonstrate a sort of superstition. The bird behaves as if there was a causal relation between its behavior and the presentation of food, although such a relation is lacking. There are many  analogies in human behavior. Rituals for changing one's luck at cards are  good examples. A few accidental connections between a ritual and favorable consequences suffice to set up and maintain the behavior in spite of many unreinforced instances. The bowler who has released a ball down the alley but continues to behave as if he were controlling it by twisting and turning his arm and shoulder is another case in point. These behaviors have,
of course, no real effect upon one's luck or upon a ball half way down an alley, just as in the present case the food would appear as often if the pigeon did nothing—or, more strictly speaking, did something else. 

A camel is a racehorse that was designed by a committee

Applications for grants are processed by committees. Sabrina, Tabitha, Heidi and Keith sit around a table and make decisions. First Sabrina gets to pick one and they vote. Then Tabitha picks one. Then Heidi and then Keith. A causal kind of collusion evolves where "If you vote for my choice, I will vote for yours." 

Each member of the committee has "special interests" that they refuse to compromise over. Often it is making sure that "their people" get a major piece of the action.

Each member is trying to impress their boss with the zeal with which they protect their silo's special interests.

Each member is also trying to read the weather with respect to future fads by which their decisions will be judged.

Finally, grant application directions are padded with fuzzy-feel-good boiler-plate* (Note, this language cut-and-pasted from an actual grant application):

  • "Build local community capacity to grow, manage and care..."
  • "Assist communities in developing and implementing sustainable community..."
  • "Address environmental justice and equity issues by engaging and involving disadvantaged and/or underserved communities as defined by federal executive order 14008 (Justice40 initiative)"
  • "Improve public awareness and understanding of the benefits of preserving, maintaining and expanding..."
  • "Facilitate partnerships among residents and public, private, and nonprofit organizations to encourage stewardship..."
  • "Support innovative projects and partnerships..."
  • "Enhance the technical skills of those involved in planning, managing, or maintaining ..."
  • "Incorporate       fill-in-blank       into climate adaptation and resilience strategies to support more equitable and resilient communities."

These are all bumpers in the pin-ball machine that spits out grants and those factors create "randomness". Applicants who did not receive a grant invariably study the applications of those who did receive grants and make adjustments in next year's application.

Why this might be important to know

If the Harris machine somehow wins the election, .gov will dominate the economy into the foreseeable future.

They will pump money into the economy and "create" jobs via grants.

As bad as it is now, the chaos and irrational behaviors (like criminalizing the use of petroleum products) of individuals and organizations will get even worse.

Decisions will be based on "superstitions" (in the Skinner sense) rather than on well-defined objectives and rational thought.

*Unmeasurable!

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Coffee break...

Time for a cup of coffee.

Work on the deck and orchards continues.

The chainsaw's clutch side-plate broke. I have two new ones coming from DeNile tomorrow morning. This is a big time of year for using the chainsaw.

Clothing

I am a big fan of 1/4 zip fleeces for winter wear, especially for very active activities like cutting wood or brush. "Layers" are the hot-ticket in the winter-time, especially when your calorie-burn can vary a lot.

They are extremely rugged. Even if the zipper gets trashed the garment still functions to keep body heat in. You cannot say that about full-zip garments or even shirts with buttons.

Being made from polyester, the fleece's insulation value is not impacted very much by moisture, whether from sweat or rain or melting snow.

Since they are soft, they make a better inner-layer than an outer-layer. Outer-layers are more likely to pick up burs of various sorts. A heavy 1/4 zip-fleece and a wind-resistant shell can be accessorized with various head and hand coverings.

Dunham's

Dunham's Sporting Goods is a local chain store and they advertised a sale on 1/4 fleeces. They were marked down from $30 to $20 which is cheaper than I can buy them from DeNile, plus I can try them on for size.

Pulling an XL off the rack, I tried to pull it on over my tee-shirt. No-go! What the heck?

It was too tight, by far, across the shoulders.

One possibility is that the manufacturers used less cloth so the dimensions "shrunk" across the shoulders. It just seems odd that I, at 5'-9" and 200 pounds, cannot fit into a stretchy, XL fleece.

The other possibility is that Belladonna's coaching on deadlifting bulked up my shoulders.

Resigned to reality, I ended up purchasing two XXL fleeces. It could have been far worse. It could have been too tight across the belly. Maybe they were. I wouldn't know. I was not able to pull the XL fleeces over my shoulders without popping threads.

Darn you, Belladonna. Darn you!

Explaining to young people what it feels like to be "old"

Do you know what it feels like when you put in 12 hours of labor that your body is not used to...like canoeing or scraping paint or hiking in mountains?

You know how every muscle and joint aches when you crawl into bed but you pop out of bed the next morning ready to do it again?

Yeah, being old feels exactly like that, except we feel that way after doing nothing and day long and we feel just as bad in the morning.

But thanks for asking...

Life Insurance

A couple of my kids are at that stage of life where they are thinking about life-insurance.

Visits to insurance brokers resulted in quotes...which sounded high to me.

I asked if those were term, whole or universal policies and they did not know. I asked if their financial advisor was "fee-only" and they said she was not.

My perception of insurance is that you should first check to see if your employer offers life insurance. Next, figure out the "envelop" of your needs. If you have a young child, for instance, then you will not need as much pay-out as they approach adulthood and much-less after they become adults.

If more kids show up, then you can buy additional policies to fine-tune the payout to your changing circumstances.

Term life is a pure insurance play and is almost always the least expensive option and offer a tremendous amount of flexibility. Why buy a tent when all you really need is a baseball cap?

I can see one policy that pays enough to bury you ($10k-to-$20k payout)

I can see a 20-year policy each time you add a kid to the family ($200k payout). I would structure the policy so the premiums "adjust" every five years. Young families never have enough money and having the premiums "level" for the entire period is stupid.

I could also see a single policy for five years at the start of a 15-year-mortgage to pay-off the house/farm (principle of mortgage payout) and then a second policy for years five-through-ten.

I know that I have many very-sharp people reading this blog and probably have people who sold insurance. Any comments?

Fine Art Tuesday (late)

 

Many of Trägårdh's painting include trees that have been trained to "pollards", a sustainable harvest technique similar to "coppice" but with a length of tree trunk holding the branches above the reach of browsing animals.
Carl Ludvig Trägårdh born in Sweden in September 1861 and died in France in 1899.

Famous for painting pastoral scenes.










Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Young ears

Quicksilver and I were walking out of the orchard and past the garden this afternoon. We were looking for ripe raspberries. There were some weed stalks leaning across our path. Some of them were Setaria faberi, Giant Foxtail.


"Pokey! Pokey!" Quicksilver said in alarm as she looked at the seed-head's awls.

"No, it is soft" I assured her. "That is Fox Tail."

I do my best not to talk down to kids. They are sponges for knowledge and by not speaking down at them means they can painlessly absorb a LOT of information.

Quicksilver likes to parrot back words.

She returned two syllables. The first syllable started with the "F" sound but the second syllable absolutely did not start with the "T" sound.

I repeated "Fox Tail" and Quicksilver returned "F" not "T" words.

Maybe it was my old ears. Maybe it was due to QS not being able to precisely form word-sounds. Maybe. Maybe not.

Hmmm! I need to do some soul searching. I am 96.7% sure she didn't hear it from me and 99.99% sure she didn't hear it from Mrs ERJ.

Sponges. Yes, absolute sponges.

Lifetime cost(s) of "gender affirming care"

Most stories about the costs of "gender affirming care" that pop-up using common search engines are circa 2015. Given the explosion in the number of procedures for "gender affirming care", it is curious that there has not been more recent data published.

One report from Johns-Hopkins that was published in December 2015 states:

In the first five years, the researchers found, providing health care for transgender people cost between $34,000 and $43,000 per year of quality of life; after 10 years, the cost dropped to between $7,000 and $10,000 per year of quality of life.   Emphasis mine

Let's assume a 20-year-old opts for "gender affirming care" and let's assume the lower prices through their entire life.

5 years * $34k/year = $170k

Years 5-through-10: 5 years times $20.5k (the midpoint)/year = $102k

Years 11-through-40: 30 * $7k/year = $210k

Total, assuming a 60 year life expectancy: $480k

For comparisons, death due to cardio-vascular disease has a typical end-of-life cost of about $25k. E-o-L is usually characterized as the last 365 days of medical costs incurred. Death due to cardio-vascular disease has the lowest end-of-life costs of all major causes-of-death. Approximately 25% of the patients who die of cardio-vascular events simply fall-over dead and the sum-total of their medical cost is the ambulance ride to be declared dead at the hospital.

Death due to cancer has a typical E-o-L cost of $100k. This is primarily due to the customized nature of chemo-therapy and the fact that many cancer drugs are "niche" products and the development costs must be amortized over relatively few patients.

Dementia also has an E-o-L cost of about $100k but they use the last several years due to the slow, progressive nature of the disease.

So if the costs today are similar to the costs nine years ago, one person who receives "gender affirming care" has an incremental cost similar to five, terminal cancer patients.

Oh, and the person who receive "gender affirming care" will eventually die and incur whatever costs that are associated with that event.