Resilience vs. Efficiency: Grains

 

 20 minute run-time

This video is interesting because it explores the tension between "Resilience" and "Efficiency".

Before you get super-excited...the narration (perhaps AI generated) takes liberties with technical concepts like "hybrids" and "clones". So take everything else in this video with a grain of salt.

Humans are in a race with fungi, bacteria, virus and chaos. For a while the winds and tides were with us and we have thrived. Pendulums swing. Things change. Even if the earth was filled with oil there is a finite amount of oxygen in the atmosphere. At some point we will have spent our way back into a pay-as-we-go thermodynamic relationship.

Life is "interesting" in the corners

One "hack" in optimization software is to examine the values in the vertices (corners) of the allowable universe. Interesting genes are found on sky-islands in Arizona, cracks in sidewalks, Peru, Spitzbergen Island, Mount Tahat, Orkney Islands, Hillsdale College and Fort Dapp. 

Genetic trajectories are not anchored by regression-to-the-mean when they evolve in isolation.

While novel and useful genetic packages can be found in random individuals in the great, thundering herds of conformity, it is not economical to search for them in such places. It seems unlikely that one would find a land-race that can deal with toxic soils in the fertile fields of Indiana where it is not an issue.

Let's raise a toast to those of us who refuse to bow to the cast-pewter gods of conformity! 

Source of heirloom grain seeds 

Random thought

I look at all of the water-containment run-off swales that the EPA requires of newly paved areas. I understand the concept. Unbuffered rain run-off and snow-melt can be "acid" or thermally hot. Channeling the runoff into a containment area and then having it percolate through the ground buffers the pH and stabilizes the temperature.

A random set of containment ponds in an un-named suburb in a midwestern state.

How hard would it be to toss a couple of handfuls of viable Wild-Rice seeds into every detention pond in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, and North and South Dakota during the month of October?

Native range of the genus Zizania at the granularity of "county". Source

If the Wild Rice is happy it will establish and become repatriated and ducks (and humans) will rejoice. If not, nothing ventured-nothing gained.

Hat-tip to the tireless Lucas Machias

 

Planning notes for fertilizing the orchard(s)

Pruning trees is a good time to look them over and think through management plans for the coming growing season.

I did not fertilize most of the trees that I pruned last winter. Removing 1/2-to-2/3 of their canopies nearly always causes rampant new growth the following year. Adding fertilizer exacerbates the problem. Lush, rampant growth makes the trees susceptible to fire blight and makes the next year's pruning (which is this year's) more work.

Commercial orchards send leaf-stems (petioles in botany-speak) to laboratories for chemical analysis. They use the results to fine-tune their fertilizer applications, sometimes on a month-by-month basis.

I use more primitive methods because those lab tests are not cheap and I don't need to squeeze out every last 40 pound box of apples to make payroll.

I tweak my fertilizer plan to produce a target amount of shoot growth each growing season. I aim for a minimum of 24" of growth on dominant side-shoots while I am growing the tree to fill its allotted space and 12" of growth after they have fill their "place".

Most of the heavily pruned trees gave me 18" or so of shoot growth and will produce substantially less next year unless I add fertilizer. Those trees are now carrying a lot more vegetative and fruiting buds. More shoots means fewer nutrients per shoot. More fruit means more carbs being pumped into the fruit.

Always be suspicious of round-numbers

One rule-of-thumb for fertilizing apple orchards is to broadcast 100 pounds of Nitrogen-per-acre at the beginning of the growing season. It is hard to think of a number that is "rounder" than 100lb/acre.

One detail that gets glossed over is "Do you also fertilize the grassy aisle-ways?" 

My inclination is to NOT fertilize them. More aggressive grass growth means more competition for moisture and if you cannot irrigate it means fewer pounds of apples. 

The trees in the Upper Orchard are planted 15' between trees in the row and 25' between rows. That is low-density by modern standards but I am not running a modern orchard.

Beneath the trees, the area sprayed with herbicide varies between 6' and 10' in width. If I split the difference (i.e. 8' wide by 15' per tree) and go with the 100lb/acre that means I need to apply about 0.6 pounds of urea per tree. Key point, the fertilizer must be scattered evenly over the 120 square-feet per tree.

The more vigorous trees like the Empire on MM-106 I might use a bit less than a half-pound. 

The less vigorous trees like GoldRush will get the full 0.6 pounds because they are struggling to fill their allotted space. 

Trees that were planted last year will get a half-pound of urea over the a circle with a 10' diameter centered around them and will get extra weed control.

Newly planted trees will get hand-watered with 300PPM Nitrogen water.

Very early May is a good time to broadcast fertilizer in Michigan. In many years we go into a period of low rainfall starting in late-May through most of  June and I want the fertilizer dissolved and carried down to where the roots are BEFORE that happens. 

Weed control

Weeds compete with your trees for nutrients and moisture.

A fertilizer-plan is only half of the game just like the offensive game is only half of the football game. Weed control will be a composite of herbicides (primarily glyphosate but it may include a pre-emergent like Simizine) and mowing. Most grass that is mowed short has much shorter roots than grass that is not mowed. That is why a lawn that is "scalped" is the first lawn on the block to brown-out in the summer.

Orchard floors do not need to be groomed to city-park standards but I do have to stay on top of mowing if I intend to reap the benefits of the fertilizer I apply. 

A few more pictures from yesterday

 

The temperatures went above freezing yesterday

The rabbits were eating the branches I had trimmed from the fruit trees the last time I was in the Upper Orchard

I spread wood ashes in the Hill Orchard. Clover loves potassium and wood ashes are a good source

The snow is stressing the deer for food. They are having to dig for it. There were a few volunteer turnips growing between these trees

The sill of the shooting port is tilted slightly so water runs out. If memory serves, the slope is 0.5" in 3-1/2"

Even though the roof projects past the sill, the wind was blowing the water droplets in enough to hit it. The splatter made the thighs of my pants damp and I got chilly.

Eventually, I got smart enough to realize that if I didn't lean back in my chair that I could cover more of my thighs with my parka. Slightly later, I figured out that I could put my gloves on top of the exposed parts of my thighs and keep my hands in my pockets.

Those two changes made a significant improvement in my comfort level.

When it is cold, I do not rest my weapon on my thighs. I lose a lot of heat as that big, iron bar sucks out the heat and efficiently transfers it to the atmosphere. It is essentially an antenna that emits heat. 

A random "artsy" picture of the orchard taken near the top of the Hill Orchard and looking west.

As a side note, the number of dead mice in the small bucket trap is up to four.

The view from the office

 

I saw the four deer this afternoon.

The first was forty minutes before the end of legal-light. It was 300 yards away and running.

The second was 120 yards away and I could only see the top half of its body due to cover. It did not look like a very large deer and it didn't move very much.

The last two deer were 5 minutes before the end of legal light and they were in dense brush and near the edge of the property. I don't have written permission to track deer onto the neighbor's property.

No shots were fired.

Pruning

I know it looks like I was able to prune the tree in about 45 seconds, but the contrails were left by two separate planes. The orchard was beneath the approach for the Grand Rapids Gerald R. Ford International Airport

The "J" stenciled on the trunk of the tree is because the fruit keyed-out as (probably) Jonafree based on fruit characteristics and the records of what was planted in the orchard. 

The good news is that my expectation was to get five trees pruned and I was able to prune seven!  I have another fifteen to prune at that location and then I will start pruning the trees in Eaton Rapids.

Nick Reiner. Drugs are bad

At the time of this writing, it is generally believed the a man named Rob Reiner and his wife Michelle were tied to chairs and their throats were slit by their son, Nick Reiner.

My first thought had been that they had been killed by thugs who were trying to steal their crypto assets. That seems to be their mode of operation. Take the crypto owners hostage and torture them until they cough-up the account number and password.

I am still slightly skeptical. How does one man tie two, active healthy people to chairs against their consent? We may find out that this was a shake-down gone wrong and that Nick Reiner helped the crew gain access and then things went south.

The current reports are that Nick Reiner had problems with drugs. My assumption is that he was also mentally ill, if not before his heavy use of drugs then afterwards as he spiraled into psychosis. 

 The story is getting plastered all over the place because the male victim "made a difference". The male victim was "famous" and he was "somebody who mattered".

In the end, it will not matter as long as people can afford to kill their brains with drugs and as long as we avoid addressing to our country's systemic failures regarding mental health issues. In many ways the two issues are joined at the hip.

In the long run, it seems highly unlikely that Rob Reiner will make any difference at all. 

A bit of Scripture to wash the taint out of my mouth

For then will I remove from your midst
    the proud braggarts,
And you shall no longer exalt yourself
    on my holy mountain.
But I will leave as a remnant in your midst
    a people humble and lowly,
Who shall take refuge in the name of the LORD:
    the remnant of Israel.
They shall do no wrong
    and speak no lies;
Nor shall there be found in their mouths
    a deceitful tongue;
They shall pasture and couch their flocks
    with none to disturb them.   -From Zephaniah Chapter 3

Regarding the circle-jamboree of Data Centers and AI

---Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. I don't have any "Certificates". This blog post is offered for entertainment purposes.---

Background on AI's foundational technology (numerical methods)

In numerical methods, "integral based algorithms" are forgiving and robust while "differential methods" are rife with instabilities. Rates of change (X,t) tend to multiply measurement error. Acceleration of rate of change (X,,t) is even filthier. "Jerk", the rate of change of acceleration (X,,,t) is even filthier than acceleration.

Also from numerical methods, interpolation (estimating values that are bounded by measured data) is pretty safe while extrapolation (estimating values that are outside the cloud of measured data i.e., future predictions) get squirrelly very quickly. The farther into the future the prediction, the squirrellier the number.

This is important for two reasons. My AI expert informs me that LLM are basically "Auto-complete on steroids". They are guessing what the next word will be. At some point that runs out of gas. The other way it comes into play is that the astronomical valuations and ability to pull financing is based on speculation about how AI will fundamentally transform the economy like petroleum, semiconductors and the internet did. 

Can any of the proponents of AI offer a credible guess as to when the venture will be profitable, covering both the costs of the sunk investment and the variable cost of the energy to run them?

Frankly, I think they are barking up the wrong tree. The AI that will be profitable will be tiny chips embedded in drones (unmanned, aerial vehicles) and will parse out potential targets and communicate with other drones in its cloud. Survival on the battle field will involve keeping your IFF helmet fully charged and the antenna undamaged and transmitting.

"But you HAVE to be investing in AI because that is where the stock-prices are exploding!!!" 

I sort of am. 30% of my retirement fund (calm your beating heart...it isn't that much money) is invested in various equity index funds. Since NVIDIA, Oracle, MS and Alphabet are a substantial slice of the S&P 500, I am invested in them.

I am fine missing out on "beating the market". The exquisite agony of being "left behind" combines the two major forces in the market. It combines both Fear and Greed all in one package. It is fog-of-war and blindness-from-testosterone combined into one package and is virtually guaranteed to result in risky bets. 

Errors AI seems to be prone to

"Nothing is better than God.
Warm beer is better than nothing."
***apply transitive property***
"Warm beer is better than God." 
Words can have very different meanings depending on context. 

"You are a sight for sore eyes"
Oscar Wilde's original intention was "...a sight to cause sore eyes..." 

"You look like the first breath of spring!"
The only survivable way to tell a woman that she looks like the end of a long, hard winter.

(From an AI generated Youtube video) "Alvin York charged the trench filled with 126 German soldiers armed only with his Springfield model 1903 and his 1911 Colt handgun" 

While the "Standard" rifle for the U.S. Army was the Springfield model 1903, there were not enough in inventory to issue to the troops who were sent to Europe in 1917. Rather, they were issued the Enfield M-17 chambered in 30-06. In this case, "standard" and boots-on-ground reality were different.

Mountains of money are being sunk into "Data centers" and AI. I am humble enough to acknowledge that I may be very wrong. But I fear that the results will be more dystopian than empowering.

Snow is a storybook that we write in with our feet

We have had snow on the ground for a couple of weeks now and it is a good time to see the natural traffic patterns in our yard.

I see deer and rabbit highways.

I see where I go, at least in the winter.

That is useful information from the standpoint of planning "zones" as defined by "permaculture".

Practitioners of permaculture suggest that it is rational to place enterprises that are high-maintenance and high-output close to the paths you walk daily. For example, you might put everbearing berry bushes long the path between your kitchen door and the mailbox or the hen-house. Gathering enough berries to dress up your breakfast or lunch does not require any additional steps and consequently are more likely to get picked than if your berry patch was a 100 yards away.

Gardens and chickens both thrive with daily attention so it makes sense to put them close together from the standpoint of labor. They offer symbiotic opportunities in terms of nutrient cycling, especially if you have a station for cleaning your vegetables next to the chicken run. Toss the "seconds" over the fence and "BOOM!", recycled with no composting required.

Everybody is going to do things a little bit differently because we start with different property. Some are loath to cut down mature trees. Others are ruthless.

Rough guidelines 

Zone 0: Inside of your house: Looms, spinning wheels, work benches, kitchen, pantry, herbs on window sill. 

Zone 1: Several times-a-day to daily visits: Inside the "yard". Porches, gazebo, kitchen/salad garden, everbearing berry bushes/trees, BBQ pit, swings, arbors, sandbox, flowers, barns, dog-kennel, hen-house, driveways, garages, water spigots

There will be blurring of zones. The milk cow is staked out in the pasture every day but the pear tree on the left side of the frame might only be harvested once a year.

Zone 2: Daily visits to 3X week: Garden with crops that require less care (potatoes, sweet corn, winter squash). Orchards. Pastures grazed by milk-animals.

Zone 3: 2X a week-to-every 10 days: Pasture grazed by meat animals, some kinds of orchards, intensive coppice.

Zone 4: Every 10 days to every 2 months: Hedgerows for seasonal fruit and mushrooms, a spot for fishing.

Zone 5: Less frequently than once very 2 months: Forest crops like poles, firewood, nuts. Places to trap. Marshland hay-field.

Another flexibility involves NEED. In times of famine you will be walking the pasture of your meat animals collecting dandelions, chicory, and other greens every few days to take pressure off of your garden. You will be bird-dogging the hedgerows to beat the birds and squirrels to the edibles. When you have high needs, what was Zone 2 is promoted to Zone 1-1/2 and Zone 3 is promoted to Zone 2.