As reported earlier, Wild Willie (Kubota's friend) never had a magazine subscription even though he is sixteen years old.
Based on feedback from my loyal readers, I was able to purchase a subscription to Guns and Ammo and a gift membership to the National Rifle Association and a subscription to National Rifleman while staying beneath my $50 budget.
Thank-you to my readers who took the time to provide feedback.
Sunday, July 26, 2015
Minority Wars: Brand Value alpha minority, Second Example
The second example estimates the "Brand Value" of alpha-minority status in jobs more typical of non-college graduates.
A major component of getting a job as a Corrections Officers in many jurisdictions is to perform well on the Civil Service Exam.
Litigation resulted in many communities being "consent decree" communities. Consent decree occurs when a community accepts certain conditions in order to terminate legal actions.
From Common Wealth magazine:
The jobs many of these candidates are likely to be able to find, today, are $11/hour, 28 hours/week positions.
For the sake of this comparison, let's assume the candidate who is blocked by one of the "absolute preferences" is able to find two jobs that add up to 40 hours per week. If they work 50 weeks a year they will make $22K.
Simply comparing wages over a 25 year time span, the difference in pay is $425K.
Comparing wages is only part of the difference. Fringe benefits are non-existent for our $11/hour example but, according to the Mackinac Center, fringe benefits for a State of Michigan employee are approximately 54% of base payroll. That adds another $17K/year to the "absolute preference" bringing the Brand Value for an alpha minority to $850K for a non-college track job.
Analysis two two different scenarios suggests that the Brand Value of being an alpha minority is worth approximately $750K for that one individual.
A major component of getting a job as a Corrections Officers in many jurisdictions is to perform well on the Civil Service Exam.
Litigation resulted in many communities being "consent decree" communities. Consent decree occurs when a community accepts certain conditions in order to terminate legal actions.
From Common Wealth magazine:
The average wages for a Corrections Officer is $35K/year while Corrections Officers working for the State can be paid +$50K/year.Preferential treatment
If test scores don’t determine rank on the hiring list, what does? The answer is “preferences.” Certain “absolute preferences,” determined by law and court order, allow some applicants with at least a passing grade of 70 to move ahead of everyone else. In fact, there are so many folks being ushered to the front of the line it actually requires an order of preferences to sort them all out. Here is a typical list of absolute preferences used to create a Civil Service hiring list in a Massachusetts city or town:
- minority applicants (in consent decree communities only)
- resident children of police officers or firefighters killed in the line of duty
- non-resident children of police officers or firefighters killed in the line of duty
- resident disabled veterans
- resident children of police officers or firefighters injured in the line of duty
- non-resident children of police officers or firefighters injured in the line of duty
- resident veterans
- resident widows or widowed mothers of veterans killed in the line of duty or dead from service-connected disabilities incurred in wartime service
- resident non-veterans
- non-resident disabled veterans
- non-resident veterans
- non-resident widows or widowed mothers of veterans killed in the line of duty or dead from service- connected disabilities incurred in wartime service
- non-resident non-veterans
The jobs many of these candidates are likely to be able to find, today, are $11/hour, 28 hours/week positions.
For the sake of this comparison, let's assume the candidate who is blocked by one of the "absolute preferences" is able to find two jobs that add up to 40 hours per week. If they work 50 weeks a year they will make $22K.
Simply comparing wages over a 25 year time span, the difference in pay is $425K.
Comparing wages is only part of the difference. Fringe benefits are non-existent for our $11/hour example but, according to the Mackinac Center, fringe benefits for a State of Michigan employee are approximately 54% of base payroll. That adds another $17K/year to the "absolute preference" bringing the Brand Value for an alpha minority to $850K for a non-college track job.
Summary
Analysis two two different scenarios suggests that the Brand Value of being an alpha minority is worth approximately $750K for that one individual.
Saturday, July 25, 2015
Minority Wars: What is the "Brand Value" of a label?
From Breitbart
If the observer can step back and gain a little bit of perspective, one soon notices the same frantic braying that one hears over
Brand Value is why two otherwise similar articles of clothing (basketball shorts, for example) will vary in price from $12 to $120.
The calculation of Brand Value is a frequent exercise in Academia and in the financial world. Anybody with access to a competent search engine can type in "Brand Value McDonalds" and in 0.36 seconds you will learn that it is valued at $37.4 Billion dollars (at least on 7/25/2015 at 10:35 EST). Ford Corporation used it Brand Value as collateral for a $23.6 Billion loan in late 2006.
There is little stomach in Academia or the corporate world for discussion about the Brand Value of being a minority. The topic is toxic. It would destroy any tenure track scholar. It would likely get any corporate minion fired.
The ERJ Think Tank lacks many of the resources available to larger think thanks. Assumptions will be made and shortcuts will be taken. The value that is calculated will be a couple of stakes in the ground, an estimate, a first order approximation.
Visualize a promotional situation. Further visualize a pool of candidates with eight equally competent applicants. One of the candidates is an alpha minority. It is a foregone conclusion that the alpha minority candidate will receive the promotion.
The median starting salary for college graduates in 2014 was approximately $45K/year. Assuming 3% annual raises, an amount that nullifies the effects of inflation but no gain in real bying power, that college graduate will earn $3.4M over a 40 year career. This is a conservative estimate because it assumes there will be no "real" pay increases based on skill growth.
A typical "step" in midrange pay scale for a promotion is 25%. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the alpha minority will be one pay scale higher for nearly all of their career...that is, they will make 25% more than their cohorts who are blocked in one pay grade below them.
One statistical subtlety is that on a level playing field and a pool of eight qualified candidates there is a one-chance-in-eight that the alpha minority would have received the position based on random chance. So that 12.5% "random chance" must be backed out of the Brand Value calculation.
Brand Value (alpha minority) = $3.5M*25%*(100%-12.5%) = $765K
Seven hundred, sixty-five thousand dollars is a substantial amount of money. I understand why the position of "alpha minority" is defended with great vigor. The anger over Rachel Dozal was two-fold: She was obviously a woman but then self-identified as an African-American to usurp the position of alpha minority....thus blocking another out of the.$765K identity. The other thing she did is that she diluted the Brand Value of African-American minority status as surely as a container ship loaded with counterfeit Gucci handbags dilutes the value of the real thing.
But is eight the right number? Many corporations use a self-nomination system to avoid discrimination litigation based on claims of pre-screening.
Critique of analysis:
Minority Wars: Why The Next Ten Years Will Set Everyone Against Everyone
So guess what happens when you tell everyone that their worth, their ability, their right to speak on certain subjects and – shudder – their “privilege” is based on what they were born with, rather than any choices they’ve made or who they are?
This is what the future of progressivism looks like: blacks fighting gays fighting lesbians fighting trans fighting everyone else. It’s the iron law of victimhood-driven identity politics. Someone has to win, and everyone else has to lose.
If the observer can step back and gain a little bit of perspective, one soon notices the same frantic braying that one hears over
- Ford vs. Chevy
- Nike vs. Adidas
- Pespi vs. Coke
- Android vs. IPhone
- University of This vs That State University
- Taco Bell vs. Subway vs. McDonalds vs. Burger King
The value of Brand Value
Brand Value is why two otherwise similar articles of clothing (basketball shorts, for example) will vary in price from $12 to $120.
The calculation of Brand Value is a frequent exercise in Academia and in the financial world. Anybody with access to a competent search engine can type in "Brand Value McDonalds" and in 0.36 seconds you will learn that it is valued at $37.4 Billion dollars (at least on 7/25/2015 at 10:35 EST). Ford Corporation used it Brand Value as collateral for a $23.6 Billion loan in late 2006.
There is little stomach in Academia or the corporate world for discussion about the Brand Value of being a minority. The topic is toxic. It would destroy any tenure track scholar. It would likely get any corporate minion fired.
What is the Brand Value of being the alpha minority?
The ERJ Think Tank lacks many of the resources available to larger think thanks. Assumptions will be made and shortcuts will be taken. The value that is calculated will be a couple of stakes in the ground, an estimate, a first order approximation.
Approximation one
Visualize a promotional situation. Further visualize a pool of candidates with eight equally competent applicants. One of the candidates is an alpha minority. It is a foregone conclusion that the alpha minority candidate will receive the promotion.
The median starting salary for college graduates in 2014 was approximately $45K/year. Assuming 3% annual raises, an amount that nullifies the effects of inflation but no gain in real bying power, that college graduate will earn $3.4M over a 40 year career. This is a conservative estimate because it assumes there will be no "real" pay increases based on skill growth.
A typical "step" in midrange pay scale for a promotion is 25%. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the alpha minority will be one pay scale higher for nearly all of their career...that is, they will make 25% more than their cohorts who are blocked in one pay grade below them.
One statistical subtlety is that on a level playing field and a pool of eight qualified candidates there is a one-chance-in-eight that the alpha minority would have received the position based on random chance. So that 12.5% "random chance" must be backed out of the Brand Value calculation.
Brand Value (alpha minority) = $3.5M*25%*(100%-12.5%) = $765K
What does America look like?
Let's look at that pool of eight candidates. If that pool is a representative cross section of America then half the candidates will be women. One person will identify as African-American (14% is 1-in-7), one Hispanic (19% is one-in-six)...one of whom will be a woman. There is about a fifty percent chance that one of the eight candidates will identify as LGBT et al. The position of alpha minority will be highly contested.
Seven hundred, sixty-five thousand dollars is a substantial amount of money. I understand why the position of "alpha minority" is defended with great vigor. The anger over Rachel Dozal was two-fold: She was obviously a woman but then self-identified as an African-American to usurp the position of alpha minority....thus blocking another out of the.$765K identity. The other thing she did is that she diluted the Brand Value of African-American minority status as surely as a container ship loaded with counterfeit Gucci handbags dilutes the value of the real thing.
But is eight the right number? Many corporations use a self-nomination system to avoid discrimination litigation based on claims of pre-screening.
Critique of analysis:
- The $765K is not a net present value.
- Rebuttal: Conservative, off-setting assumption regarding wage growth was made.
- Brand Value is typically an aggregate value. Analysis looks at a very specific anecdote.
- Rebuttal: Motivation is typically based on gains reasonably anticipated by the individual. The scope of this essay was to put "a few stakes in the ground" with the hope of illuminating the motivation behind behaviors.
- Basic premise is racist
- Rebuttal: Basic premise was that all eight candidates were sufficiently qualified for the position. No claims of "less qualified" candidates being being in the pool or promoted were ever implied.
- Not everybody is college track. Analysis is not meaningful for vast majority of "alpha minority"
- Rebuttal: Non-college track will be examined in a future essay. The comparison will be between State Corrections Position (via performance on Civil Service Exam) vs. General Labor. This analysis is analogous to sinking a single test bore to assay the extent of an ore body.
Friday, July 24, 2015
Obamacare: A Rhetorical Question
Taking the Democratic talking points at face value, that Obamacare is a huge leap forward in accessibility to quality medical care and is an unmitigated success:
Why has there been no effort, on the part of the Democrats, to extend those benefits to other professional services....most notably legal services?
At this point it must be noted that Congress and the White House are populated by attorneys, not doctors.
So why aren't attorneys eager to have their billing statements subject to review, revision and write-down by clerks, who might have an Associate's Degree? Could it be the possibility of unilateral write-downs of as much as 90% for "services"? Could it be a pride thing.... Or more likely the fact that review by conscientious clerks will reveal instances of (gasp) fraudulent billings; double billings, billings for services not rendered, billings that are "rounded-up".
Inquiring minds want to know. Democrats treating ObamaLegalCare like the proverbial third-rail is de facto proof that they acknowledge Obama(medical)care as an abject failure or an admission of pervasive fraudulent legal billings by their practicing associates. Which?
Why has there been no effort, on the part of the Democrats, to extend those benefits to other professional services....most notably legal services?
At this point it must be noted that Congress and the White House are populated by attorneys, not doctors.
So why aren't attorneys eager to have their billing statements subject to review, revision and write-down by clerks, who might have an Associate's Degree? Could it be the possibility of unilateral write-downs of as much as 90% for "services"? Could it be a pride thing.... Or more likely the fact that review by conscientious clerks will reveal instances of (gasp) fraudulent billings; double billings, billings for services not rendered, billings that are "rounded-up".
Inquiring minds want to know. Democrats treating ObamaLegalCare like the proverbial third-rail is de facto proof that they acknowledge Obama(medical)care as an abject failure or an admission of pervasive fraudulent legal billings by their practicing associates. Which?
Thursday, July 23, 2015
Rational Expectations
Rational expectations theory holds that people will guide their actions to optimize outcomes for their personal gain They become increasingly immune to manipulation as they lose their naivete.
This is a riff on Adam Smith's "invisible guiding hand".
Evidence that supports this theory is extremely vexing to central planners and socialists.
Story HERE: Seattle sees fallout from $15/hr minimum wage
This is a riff on Adam Smith's "invisible guiding hand".
Evidence that supports this theory is extremely vexing to central planners and socialists.
Story HERE: Seattle sees fallout from $15/hr minimum wage
Seattle’s $15 minimum wage law is supposed to lift workers out of poverty and move them off public assistance. But there may be a hitch in the plan.
Despite a booming economy throughout western Washington, the state’s welfare caseload has dropped very little since the higher wage phase began in Seattle in April. In March 130,851 people were enrolled in the Basic Food program. In April, the caseload dropped to 130,376.
At the same time, prices appear to be going up on just about everything.
Full Life Care, a home nursing nonprofit, told KIRO-TV in Seattle that several workers want to work less. “If they cut down their hours to stay on those (means tested) subsidies because the $15 per hour minimum wage didn’t actually help get them out of poverty, all you’ve done is put a (additional) burden on the business..."
Leaky toilet update
Operating on the premise that for certain subjects less information is better, I will skip right to the money shot.
Brass bolt, chrome plate brass nut, steel washer: Bad combination.
The washer (example on the left) corroded due to being the galvanic loser in the battery. After it lost enough thickness, it simply pulled through the hole in the bottom of the stool. The stool tipped when the user reached for the paper. The seal was broken. As Forrest Gump once said, "Shit happens."
The fix was to find some disks of a more suitable metal from a galvanic perspective. I found some suitable washer blanks that were 24.2mm in diameter and approximately 1.7mm thick of an exotic cupronickle-copper laminate. They cost twenty-five cents each. The problem was that I needed to drill holes in them to accommodate the 1/4 inch bolt.
I was not able to find my Ni-MH battery powered drill motor, so I used my nitrocellulose powered drill. The holes are approximately 7.92mm in diameter.
One of the watersheds between hoplophobes and people like me is that hoplophobes looks at a gun or a knife and sees a pile of corpses as the only inevitable outcome. Folks like me look at a gun or a knife and see a tool for making holes or a tool for cutting a useable length of twine from a 3000 foot spool of baling twine.
I thank God that I live in a place where I can discharge a firearm a couple of times without generating 9-1-1 calls from my neighbors.
 |
| My understanding is that it is illegal to attempt to pass defaced currency/coinage as legal tender. These washers will never be used as currency again. |
The washer (example on the left) corroded due to being the galvanic loser in the battery. After it lost enough thickness, it simply pulled through the hole in the bottom of the stool. The stool tipped when the user reached for the paper. The seal was broken. As Forrest Gump once said, "Shit happens."
The fix was to find some disks of a more suitable metal from a galvanic perspective. I found some suitable washer blanks that were 24.2mm in diameter and approximately 1.7mm thick of an exotic cupronickle-copper laminate. They cost twenty-five cents each. The problem was that I needed to drill holes in them to accommodate the 1/4 inch bolt.
I was not able to find my Ni-MH battery powered drill motor, so I used my nitrocellulose powered drill. The holes are approximately 7.92mm in diameter.
One of the watersheds between hoplophobes and people like me is that hoplophobes looks at a gun or a knife and sees a pile of corpses as the only inevitable outcome. Folks like me look at a gun or a knife and see a tool for making holes or a tool for cutting a useable length of twine from a 3000 foot spool of baling twine.
I thank God that I live in a place where I can discharge a firearm a couple of times without generating 9-1-1 calls from my neighbors.
While the cat is away...
Mrs ERJ is visiting her friend Linda in the downriver, Detroit area.
Mrs ERJ met Linda back in 19-mumble-mumble at MSU. Unbeknownst to them, they were both dating the same young man, a young man who felt no need to share that information. Upon mutually learning of the others existence, they took a long walk to sort things out. They both dumped the bounder and have been close friends ever since.
Linda's life has been more than chaotic. She retired this year and moved from Central Ohio back to her hometown to care for her aging mother. Knowing her need for space, Linda bought her own home. Mrs ERJ will be seeing it for the first time. They will talk until their jaws cramp. They will go to bed way too late. They will wake up in the morning and start talking with their first breath. They will go to a coffee shops that does not resemble assembly lines and where nobody is in a rush. Ronald McDonald will be nowhere in sight. They will buy dainty, sweet nothings and hot drinks. And the sweet nothings and hot drinks will sit on the table and cool off while they talk, talk, talk.
Here on the home front we put on a brave face. We do all of those things we dare not do whilst Mrs ERJ is on duty. Some of us will eat Froot Loops directly out of the box, a fistful at a time. Others will put refined sugar on our bran flakes....and we will do it boldly, with no quick, darting, furtive glances over our shoulder. We will drink 2% milk ---damned the skimmed!--- and go boldly in the sun without SPF!!! We will order out pizza on a THURSDAY. We will stride about like Colossus, like Masters of the Universe.
I have a list of chores to get done. One of them is to reseat a toilet where the bolt that holds down the stool broke or pulled through the collar. I need to get replacement bolts and a new wax ring....I am sure all home owners know the drill.
I am also on the schedule to take may parents a meal. Each of my siblings has a day to bring them dinner. Our day is Friday. Mrs ERJ and I take turns doing the planning and execution of the meal. We bounce ideas off of each other. The meals tend to be simple and repetitive due to the restrictions.
My dad cannot spices (upset stomach), fats (gall bladder) or salt (blood pressure, vertigo). He also dislikes corn bread and the taste of molasses, both of which he ate great quantities of during the Great Depression.
My mom has allergy issues with cheese, mushrooms and aged products.
Together, they do not eat enough to keep a small bird alive. They are at a time in their life when they don't move as much as they used to. They do not have the muscle mass that they used to. It just does not take very many calories to keep them going.
Usually we make them a piece of broiled fish or chicken, some steamed vegetables...whatever is in season, a wee spot of carbs like boiled new potatoes and a tiny sweet something. In all, about as much food as you might pack in a 4th grader's lunch.
Tomorrow I am flying solo on this project.
Don't worry. I will wash my hands very, very thoroughly before preparing their dinner.
Mrs ERJ met Linda back in 19-mumble-mumble at MSU. Unbeknownst to them, they were both dating the same young man, a young man who felt no need to share that information. Upon mutually learning of the others existence, they took a long walk to sort things out. They both dumped the bounder and have been close friends ever since.
Linda's life has been more than chaotic. She retired this year and moved from Central Ohio back to her hometown to care for her aging mother. Knowing her need for space, Linda bought her own home. Mrs ERJ will be seeing it for the first time. They will talk until their jaws cramp. They will go to bed way too late. They will wake up in the morning and start talking with their first breath. They will go to a coffee shops that does not resemble assembly lines and where nobody is in a rush. Ronald McDonald will be nowhere in sight. They will buy dainty, sweet nothings and hot drinks. And the sweet nothings and hot drinks will sit on the table and cool off while they talk, talk, talk.
Here on the home front
Here on the home front we put on a brave face. We do all of those things we dare not do whilst Mrs ERJ is on duty. Some of us will eat Froot Loops directly out of the box, a fistful at a time. Others will put refined sugar on our bran flakes....and we will do it boldly, with no quick, darting, furtive glances over our shoulder. We will drink 2% milk ---damned the skimmed!--- and go boldly in the sun without SPF!!! We will order out pizza on a THURSDAY. We will stride about like Colossus, like Masters of the Universe.
No, really
I have a list of chores to get done. One of them is to reseat a toilet where the bolt that holds down the stool broke or pulled through the collar. I need to get replacement bolts and a new wax ring....I am sure all home owners know the drill.
No salt, no spice, no cheese or mushrooms, low fat
I am also on the schedule to take may parents a meal. Each of my siblings has a day to bring them dinner. Our day is Friday. Mrs ERJ and I take turns doing the planning and execution of the meal. We bounce ideas off of each other. The meals tend to be simple and repetitive due to the restrictions.
My dad cannot spices (upset stomach), fats (gall bladder) or salt (blood pressure, vertigo). He also dislikes corn bread and the taste of molasses, both of which he ate great quantities of during the Great Depression.
My mom has allergy issues with cheese, mushrooms and aged products.
Together, they do not eat enough to keep a small bird alive. They are at a time in their life when they don't move as much as they used to. They do not have the muscle mass that they used to. It just does not take very many calories to keep them going.
Usually we make them a piece of broiled fish or chicken, some steamed vegetables...whatever is in season, a wee spot of carbs like boiled new potatoes and a tiny sweet something. In all, about as much food as you might pack in a 4th grader's lunch.
Tomorrow I am flying solo on this project.
Don't worry. I will wash my hands very, very thoroughly before preparing their dinner.
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