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| Labor force participation 15-24 year-old men. NOT seasonally adjusted. |
Notable for 17% swings in participation rate in the 1960s and less than half that now. Also notable for the base-rate of 55% being incredibly stable for the last 15 years.
Peak month for participation is July.
Seasonal work is important because it is often a gateway to full-time employment and because food harvesting, for instance, is seasonal in nature.
It is worth noting that work that is paid "under the table" is not captured in this data.
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Notable for the rapid climb starting in 1965, hitting a plateau between 1980-through-2020 and then sagging until 2010. Currently tied with men's labor participation rates although seasonal excursions are about 2/3 that of men's.
Peak participation month is July.
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For the entire population of men, labor-force participation has been collapsing for as long as they have been taking data. We are currently at 80% participation.
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For the entire population of women, labor-force participation rose from 40% to 70% between 1955 and today.
In what appears to be a statistical anomaly, there is not seasonal ripple. That suggests that the 15-24 cohort ripple (peak in July) is damped by higher seasonal employment Sept-through-May by older cohorts of women. Examples, teachers and aides in classrooms, working retail in November and December.
Wonder how many of the 17+ are still living with their parents and have felt no need to go to work (something about eating and a place to sleep).
ReplyDeleteThere you go.
DeleteThere are rumors going around that many employers are not willing to give people under 18 a chance because of insurance reasons. I understand the causes, but I think insurance is killing a lot of things in our country. Also, how many part time/weekend/after school jobs from the past are now staffed by full timers, including illegals?
ReplyDeleteInsurance and litigation and regulation.
DeleteThey work the ones who have proven themselves into the ground +50 hours.
There are also fewer hours to be had now….movie theaters, restaurants, malls and grocery stores now all close earlier than they did 20 years ago.
ReplyDeleteNo more midnight movies, no more 2 am coffee and cigarettes…
A couple of thoughts ERJ:
ReplyDelete1) Like your comment about under the table pay, I wonder if this accounts for a minimum level of participation (e.g. 20 hours or less, etc.)
2) Connected to that would be that 18-22/23 are prime college years, so that may be wrapped up part of that as well.
My very limited basis of experience is that those I know/knew in this age group were actually employed, either part time or full time.
3) I also wonder if jobs that would have previously been part/full time and available are no longer so. For example, the HOA that manages the housing development around our apartment complex contracts out yardwork for the entire development. Those part time jobs were rolled up into a corporate contract.
For those that are more technologically inclined, I do not know how much work there would be as the industry is full of professionals. Why risk your platform or business on someone that may or may not have experience and may lose interest midstream?
4) As industries shift and technology continues to expand, the jobs that age bracket would have taken will be in competition with people pushed out of the careers and needing a job. If a hiring manager, I am likely to take more of a chance on a 40 year old with an established work record.
Cross reference under the table employment with sales tax revenue.
DeleteA decreasing revenue seems it would indicate decreasing labor.
Started babysitting on my 12th birthday. They had a 2 month old baby. Only child, no experience at all. At 13 got a job as a car hop 2 miles from home. Walked it every day both ways. Got my first paycheck and owner was explaining deductibles and he got to SS and I was outraged. I wanted that money now! Anyone have a child or grandchild willing to start working at that age for $0.35 per hour + tips.
ReplyDelete70s - In college or after High school a lot of guys learned to 'drive nails', building houses. Hard work, low pay but jobs were easy to find. Its a shame that's not around anymore - It meant something. God save the USA.
ReplyDeleteMany of the jobs that used to be held by HS, college students and other younger people are now held by illegals and other non Americans. It doesn't help that society indoctrinates young people these days to view "entry level" work as being beneath them.
ReplyDeleteIn the late 60’s and early 70’s I was 17 to 21 and was self employee harvest in shell fish. In the summer, it paid mt College expenses! I wonder if II would be considered contributing to the labor force?
ReplyDelete