There are large numbers of people who are new to war-gaming "famine" scenarios. I feel compelled to throw a stake into the ground to, maybe, provide some perspective.
There is a spectrum of scenarios that range from long-term, total collapse of civil society on one end while the other end is characterized by a weakened safety-net that allows the most fragile and isolated to fall through the cracks and die from malnutrition.
The middle-range is some combination of reduced supply/choices, reduced logistical capability or increased demand/prices...but there are still remnants of social structure that prevent total free-fall of food availability. Versions of the second scenario are what happened in the U.K., Germany and the US during WWII.
It is imperative that the planner communicate a clear vision of the scenario he is planning for. Plans that are useful for one group of scenarios may be wasted effort for other scenarios.
This particular post looks at a scenario that is somewhere in the middle of the famine spectrum.
In my humble opinions, the responsible "prepper" position is to position one's pantry and garden so that we can reduce our burden on the struggling system. It doesn't necessarily mean that we will be totally decoupled from it. It means that we will do as much as we can so that there is more for those who actually need it.
Peering into my crystal ball
Likely to be available:
- Carbohydrates, grains
- Cheese
- Dried soybeans
These are logistically "easy" and the path-of-least resistance for people trying to backstop shortages.
Likely to be in short(er) supply
- Protein (other than cheese) from animal sources
- Fresh fruits and vegetables
- "Human-quality feed" for animals (bagged feed for chickens, pigs)
These are logistically more difficult due to being perishable, bulk and cost.
Likely to be spot shortages
- Convenience foods: Frozen, ready-to-eat meals
- Meals prepared outside of the home
- Flavorings: garlic, onions, peppers, herbs, spices
- Fats and oils
- Comfort items like candy, sugar, alcohol, tobacco, cannabis
Dietary disruptions
Rapid changes in diet will cause intestinal distress. Switching from a diet where 45% of ones' calories come from fats-and-oils to a diet heavy on grains, especially if they are high fiber, will incapacitate some people.
Another factor is that some people will be forced to become less sedentary and will need more calories. Increased need for calories combined with food with fewer calories per unit volume will compound the problems in the lower digestive system.
Bureaucracies being what they are, nearly everybody who is not a child, pregnant/nursing or working in an "essential industry" will be tagged as "low needs" and be allocated a ration of 2000 Calories/day which is great for a sedentary, 150 pound woman but woefully short for an active man who weighs 200 pounds.
Some of the difference will come from the fat-on-our-back, but that eventually runs out. A person burning 2800 Calories a day but only eating 2000 Calories a day will lose one pound of body-fat every five days. When he runs out of fat he starts metabolizing muscle.
Back to fats-and-oils
A source of supplemental fats-and/or-oils is the logical choice to increase the ration's calories without grossly increasing the bulk in your digestive system.
As a planning exercise, let's assume
- Everybody is allocated 2000 Calories a day in tortillas, bread, breakfast cereal like substances by FEMA
- Assume that your household is mixed, half only need 2000 Calories a day and half need at least 2800 Calories a day so the average need is 2400 Calories per day
- At 9 Calories per gram, a budget of 45 grams of additional F&O per person-day is a reasonable starting place for this scenario.
- A gallon of vegetable oil weighs 7.6 pounds and represents about 75, 45 gram doses. That is very, very close to the volume of a shot-glass.
- Ergo, one gallon of oil or 7.6 pounds of butter/lard/tallow represents slightly more than two people-months of supplemental F&O. In a scenario without external ration support, it represents half that time.
If the crisis is short-term, then a person burning 2800 Calories a day can easily make it through a month and will lose about ten pounds. Not a big deal. For most of us, a six month disruption means we are deeply into losing muscle.
A few parting thoughts
Written narratives of wars almost always record extreme optimism about how short of a period the war will last. The American Civil War was supposed to be over in a matter of weeks. WWI and WWII were expected to only last a few months. In fact, each of those wars lasted more than four years AND the impacted areas were in-crisis due to demolished infrastructure and lack of manpower for a like period of time. That tots up to about a decade of hunger.
Looking at Cuba, the people are still impoverished 65 years after their color revolution. From another perspective, American Indians are still impoverished 200 years after losing their war.
Another consideration is that a stick of margarine (2.5 man-days supplemental amount) or a 1/4 liter of oil (half a standard "water bottle" represents 5 man-days of supplemental amount) might be a half-a-day's and a day's wages for outside help. It is a commodity that is easily divisible, a durable store of value and can be traded by the person who receives it for other things they need. It has intrinsic value. That is, it has enough of the characteristics of money to be a serviceable substitute for it.
Summary
One gallon of vegetable oil represents about 2 man-months* of calorie supplementation for a "buffered" economic crash and 1 man-month of supplementation for an unbuffered crash. At current prices, a gallon of name-brand, long shelf-life** vegetable oil (Wesson) costs $13/gallon at our local Walmart.
Oils and fats go rancid when exposed to oxygen, so thought must be given to storage. Rancid oils are not toxic but have a much lower smoke-point when used in frying and might cause digestive distress when consumed in large quantities.
*Remember, this scenario assumes a household of one man and one woman in traditional roles. If you are a single guy then you might want to double that amount/person. If you are a single woman you might want to halve that amount.
**Breeders have been selecting soybean genetics that have reduced amounts of linolenic acid in their oil molecules. Linolenic acid is the component that oxidizes the most quickly and is the main driver of oil turning rancid.
Quick chemistry lesson: Edible fats and oils are a glycerine molecule with three short, fatty acids attached to it. Think if it as being like the letter
"E"
where the backbone (the vertical line) is the glycerine molecule and each horizontal line is a separate fatty-acid.
Fatty acids that are saturated are straight lines and the molecules pack easily. Consequently, they turn solid at higher temperatures than "E" molecules made with kinky, unsaturated fatty acids.
The more highly unsaturated the acid (i.e. poly unsaturated), the less stable that horizontal arm is and the more susceptible it is to partial oxidization...that is, becoming rancid.
The actual mix of short, fatty acids varies by the genetics of the plant. There are strains of sunflowers and soybeans that produce oils that are low in Linolenic and high in Oleic short, fatty acids. Those oils exhibit shelf-life that is significantly longer than oils made from traditional sunflowers and soybeans.
As a consumer, you can read the "Best by" dates and select the brands with the longest storage horizon. You can store them in cool, dark places. You can repackage them in glass which excludes oxygen. All of those moves should significantly increase the shelf-life of your oils.
Or, you can store tallow, coconut oil(fat) or clarified butter. Since they are very high in stearic acid, they are relatively impervious to oxidizing. They are, however, very high in saturated fats which has been linked to cardiovascular disease. Get educated and make your own decisions.
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