Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Getting "real" on how well people can (or cannot) shoot

 

Youtube video, 20 minute run-time with an ad in the middle.

The challenge was to hit a target the size of a quarter at a known distance of 100 yards, five-times-out-of-five. Not just a 1" group. You had to hit the target!

Shooting off a bench. Sandbags were available.

The thing about "Shooting one-inch groups all-day-long" is that you can shoot all day and all five dice will all come up snake-eyes at random intervals even with a poor weapon and mediocre shooter. Walking up to the station with a "cold" firearm and putting your first five shots at 100 yards into a target very slightly larger than a quarter is an entirely different challenge.

"Maximum Point-Blank Range"

One factor that did not turn out to be a factor, much to my surprise, was shooting high at 100 yards because shooters had tuned their scopes to maximize point-blank range.

 "Point-blank range" means that you can aim at the center of the target and still connect with some lethal region thereof. If one were shooting at deer-sized targets, then the size of the heart-lung region can be approximated with a paper-plate or a gallon milk-jug.

If you know from practice that you shoot 4" groups at 100 yards and you need to land the bullet in a circle that is 8" in diameter, it would be rational to dial in your scope so the bullet hits 2"-to-3" high at 100 yards. The thinking is that if your group-size is +/-2" and you are two inches high, then if you aim for the middle of the chest (8" diameter) the worst case scenario has you still landing (just barely) in the lethal region. At longer ranges, you still hold in the center of the chest and the amount of "grace" due random variation increases as the probable impact area drops.

The general public's ability to estimate range

People will think "Yeah, I know what a football field looks like. I attended a game seven years ago."

But in real life, there are no hash-marks stenciled on the ground with white latex paint.

In many cases, there are no humans standing in full-view to provide a frame-of-reference for range.

It is my unscientific believe that nearly everybody (including most outdoorsmen) grossly over-estimate range. As a rough rule-of-thumb, divide any range estimate by 2.5 and you will probably be close. An estimate of 100 yards is often only 40 yards. An estimate of 500 yards is 200 yards and so on.

Why does this matter?

Suppose you are shooting a 6.5 Creedmoor (a popular choice) and your load is a 140 grain bullet that leaves the muzzle at 2600 fps. If you dialed in your scope to be 2" high at 100 yards then at 200 yards you will be a half-inch low. Basically, you will be centered on the target...unless you make the classic error and decide your trophy is ax-you-alley 500 yards away. Then you will dial in over four feet of "hold over" and shoot over your trophy's back.

This is a case where over-thinking things is not helpful. If you can see the target and keep the crosshairs of the scope on its chest, it is probably within range. Center the crosshairs and focus on breath and trigger control. Done and done.

BUT WAIT...

As range stretches out, the divisor grows. Ranges of 400 yards are often estimated to be a mile (divisor of about 4). Ranges of 600 yards are often estimated to be two miles (divisor of 6) and so on.

The practical consequence of these predictable errors is that shooters are MUCH more likely to aim high (to compensate for increased bullet drop) and shoot over the target.

BUT WAIT SOME MORE...

Rather than dumping $1200 on a great scope, pay $200 for a decent 3-9X (Vortex and blem Loopies come to mind at that price point) and spend the $1000 you saved on ammo and range time. Or, if you are totally addicted to gadgets, buy a range-finder, use the hell out of it until you can estimate range to within 25 yards...and then sell the range-finder on Craigslist.


22 comments:

  1. I remember distinctly grossly overestimating range when at a shooting range with a buddy. We were on the long-distance range that stretched to 517 yards. I needed to hit the 100-yard gong to confirm zero. Unconsciously using the other targets at much greater distance to guess which was the 100-yard target, I guessed the 300-yard gong was right. To my amazement, a target that looked really close to me was the 100-yard target. Point being, it’s very easy to misjudge distance if one assumes erroneously the reference points are a given size or at a given distance.

    Though, it is much easier to overcome those cognitive missteps by practicing consistently with a reference point in relation to a known size. To your point, ERJ, a scope with a marked reticle allows pretty good judgments of distance. So does using a front sight post/blade, as long as one knows what it subtends at the given distance from the eye (as long as distance from the eye remains a roughly constant so that the apparent size of the sight looks the same to the shooter, the sight can then be used to estimate distance as long as one can also make a roughly accurate estimate of the size of the target). Even a duplex reticle can be used this way, as long as one can establish some mental reference points along the reticle hairs, given the lack of marked reference points.

    I practice ranging with my scope on items outside my house (keeping in mind safety of others, of course). If I know a car wheel is 17” in diameter, then with a little math in my head, I can do some estimates of range, using my reticle. Rather fun, too, once one gets a feel for one’s reticle and how to use one’s chosen arc measurement (MOA or MRADs).

    The big thing is to be able to accurately estimate the size of reference points in order to get the right context necessary for the brain to estimate distance accurately. Reticle marks or front sights can help with that by giving you an immediate “gut check”—if you’re looking at a grown deer buck that’s a few years old, the lethal area within the chest and shoulder, viewed broadside and thus in 2D, for this purpose, is probably 8–10” square. That’s an immediate mental reference point. Put a scope marked in MOA on it and the chest fills 10 MOA, the deer is between 80 and 100 yards away. Assuming the rifle is zeroed for either dead center at 100 yards or up to 2” high @ 100, the point of aim won’t matter on that deer.

    Sorry for the rambling post essentially reiterating what you said, but that was fun. Please forgive a stressed guy enjoying a little decompression by doing a mental exercise he hasn’t done in a while and misses. Now I want to figure out what my thumb subtends so I can use it for ranging and say I really truly have a rule of thumb.

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  2. I agree with your general message. Most people overestimate range (and lots of other things, too, but that's a digression); rifles zeroed for MPBR do tend to shoot high at 100. That's why this shooter likes scopes marked in mils.

    My "long range" bolt gun sports an inexpensive Vortex Diamondback hashed in mils. Zeroing at 100 yards provides a convenient starting point (almost every outdoor range in America has a 100-yard known distance line). Everything beyond 100 is dropping at a relatively consistent rate. With experience and data collection, shots can can be held over at the right number of mils without dialing in a solution.

    Also, the manual said to zero at 100, so it seemed like a good idea to do it that way.

    A "Mil-Dot Master" is a good investment for the wanna-be sniper, especially those who like to do their larping low on the tech tree. Inexpensive, waterproof, lightweight, no batteries required; teaches how to effectively estimate range with an optics marked in mils. Highly recommended.

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  3. I agree; a scale is needed. Black Hills Designs sells a range card of clear plastic that is helpful.
    Jonathan

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  4. Terrain determines the range situation. In my area unless you're on the high spot of a "Recently Cleared" powerline you're not going to have a shot more than 200 yards. Rolling terrain and brushy forest makes even winter line of sight less than 200 yards.

    Drab colored targets are hard to even see in most shooting situations I've been in past 200 yards. Movement is noticed but a stopped man not silhouetted (Like Military Ranges are) blends in well.

    But, but I have a scope!! Please realize with magnification comes the REDUCTION of area viewed. That's why military snipers use spotters AND generally get their targeting data FROM the supporting Infantry. We're taking fire from that Building near the red truck.

    That allows his spotter to scope the area until a target is detected.

    A large part of the success of the 5.56mm round was that once properly zeroed your ballistics were so flat that Joe's description of aim at your target and squeeze worked well enough.

    Personally, I love to set up ranges with a 10, 25, 50 and 100 meter popups and make them do a sprint to the shooting bench. If the target isn't hit with in 3 seconds you are deemed a casualty.

    To me that shows a little of the stressor of actually moving and shooting in a combat situation.

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  5. This may be helpful if you want to do some mental work:

    My thumbnail is 5/8" from nail tip to back of nail. The length of a tape measure from that tip to my eye is exactly 29". When I hold up my thumb and place it next to a distant object. I can determine (using CAD) that at a distance of 100 yards, my thumbnail at 100 yards covers 6'-5 1/2" A 6'-0" object is 92 yards away. An 8" object is 10 1/3 yards away.

    So picking some common vertical dimensions, I can do a rough estimate of how far that object is from me using something I carry every day.

    That is my personal measurements - yours will vary so you have to make your own model.

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  6. Agree on the over-estimation. We call that an "Irish 6 inches" in this house.
    I got a decent 4-12x Nikon scope w/ Bullet Drop hash marks on the reticle allegedly spaced out for my AR round, for around $300. I zero'd at 100 yds, and the 2nd mark down was spot on at 200. Never got to test the others...
    At 200 yards, the crosshairs literally cover the entire center-circle. At 100 yds I don't think I would be able to resolve the quarter-sized target? Even at 12x

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    1. One "cheat" that works when your dot has a lot of contrast is to "nest" the 1" dot so you have the faintest glimmer of white between the dot and the horizontal reticle and vertical reticle.

      Michael's point about scopes restricting field-of-view is HUGE. I run 3X on my 3-by-9X on my deer weapon for that reason. I don't practice enough to where I can pull the weapon into my shoulder and have the scope aligned with my vision. Some people can do it...but they do a lot of shooting.

      One guide "out West" was quoted as telling his clients to carry their hunting weapon during the summer and to practice shooting ground-squirrels with it. Ground-squirrels, regardless of species don't give you very long to acquire them in your sights and to squeeze off the shot. Probably better to make this a dry-fire exercise in the east!

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  7. If you make a habit of walking for exercise, determine your 'pace' distance and guess how far an object is before you count off how far it actually is. You gain practice making these decisions (guess and measure).

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  8. Face it - anything in Michigan or the northern wooded areas over a 100yds is long, Even the farm fields are often not as long as they appear... Longest shot I ever made was at 150yds or so (basically down a two track on private property).... But I was shooting a 270 Winchester sighted 3 inches high at 100... Hold on the middle lung area and you're good

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  9. I'll put in a plug for something handy for practicing the skill of ranging, it's just a computer simulation but it does let you get reps in working the problem in a known situation. LRSSWin, I think it stands for LongRangeShootingSimulation. https://www.shooterready.com/

    It simulates your sight picture through several different optics with fixed magnification, first and second focal plane if I remember correctly. I found it very helpful in practicing ranging using MOA or mildot reticles.
    Tom from East Tennessee

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  10. PART 1
    RE: "Point Blank Range;" Hollywood has, erroneously, convinced nearly everyone that "point blank" means "right in front of the gun."

    It is not; "point blank range" is the maximum distance at which a bullet strike can be achieved on a particular target from the muzzle to that maximum distance, with a center-of-target sighting hold, for a particular firearm and ammunition combination (one thing of which many are unaware is "sight offset," the distance between bore centerline and sight centerline; on AR-15 rifles it will usually be between 2.25 and 3.5 inches, depending on standard issue sights, or optic mount and optic; sight offset is a consideration at closer distances, because at near distances (~8-35 feet) where one is aiming is not where the bullet will strike. More than one car hood or roof top has borne the stripes concurrent with ignoring sight offset, and should one be pressed into a situation requiring high precision - such as a hostage situation - sight offset has resulted in dead hostages and unharmed transgressor more than once. As a side note, sight offset with red dot sights on pistols can also be an issue in very close quarters; test your setup.

    For "social work" a sheet of 8 1/2 X 11 inch copy paper works well as an inexpensive practice target for both pistol and rifle, today we'll look at rifles; hold a sheet against your chest with the top of the sheet at the suprasternal notch (that depression at the base of your neck) and you'll see why.

    A target 8.5 inches W X 11.0 inches H in that position - for a human standing erect - encompasses the heart, the ascending aorta, the two pulmonary arteries, the superior and inferior vena cavas, the spine, both lungs, bronchial tubes to both lungs, the esophagus and, depending on size of the subject, potentially the diaphram which affects lung function. In short, all the major life sustaining bits. A higher strike affects the neck or head, a lower strike affects the reduced value target area of the upper or mid-abdomen.

    An 8.5 X 11.0 inch target allows a maximum 5.5 inch mid-trajectory height and a maximum 5.5 drop at the far end, and a maximum windage deviation of 4.25 inches.
    As a side note, there are two "critical triangles" in the human body: the first is the triangle described by bridge of the nose and the outer ends of the lips, behind which are cavities (mouth, sinuses) in front of the brain stem; the second is described by the suprasternal notch and the outer edges of the nipples (heart, lungs, etc. described above).

    For a generic AR-15 rifle with a 16 inch barrel and 55 grain projectile ammunition, a 200 meter zero (219 yards) leaves the muzzle at approx 2950 FPS and approx 3 inches +/- below the line of sight. The maximum trajectory height occurs approximately 145 yards from the muzzle and is 1.5 inches above the base trajectory line ("base trajectory" is a straight line from the muzzle to target center). At 300 yards the trajectory is 4.4 inches below target center; at 313 yards the projectile trajectory falls below the bottom edge of the 8.5X11.0 target.

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  11. Part 2
    Changing to a 220 meter (~240 yard) zero raises the trajectory mid point to 2 inches at 150 yards and the point blank range to 300 meters (~330 yards). I have found that for a typical student, a day's instruction and practice allows reasonably consistent effectiveness from the prone position at those distances Other shooting positions suffer considerable degradation in effectiveness, and different ammunition (specifically, the 77 grain MK262 cartridge) offers increased effectiveness at distance, with a reduced muzzle velocity and subsequent trajectory changes.

    As to effectiveness of that projectile at distance, Back In The Day the U.S. Marine Corps stipulated a maximum effective range of the M-16 and M-16A1 (20 inch barrel) with 55 grain issue amunition as 465 yards, determined by the projectile energy at that distance necessary to penetrate a standard-issue Soviet Army helmet. One may note that combat conditions and individual equipment have changed somewhat in the interim.

    For practical purposes, a 240 yard zero for 5.56X45 rifles is appropriate, and allows influence over, and potential management of, a 325 yard radius. It must be stressed that calculations are exactly that, and actual performance must be confirmed by you with your rifle, your optics, and your ammunition. It should also be noted that under combat conditions humans will not be conveniently standing erect, which will require a higher level of precision regarding bullet placement at distance to achieve incapacitation.

    The advantage of such a zero is that once an individual has learned how to reasonably estimate maximum distances - and often rifle optics contain internal markings making that task easier - once needs only to ascertain "how far away is it" because a proper target hold - center between the shoulders, on a line at or very slighty above the armpits - puts a projectile in An Important Place from the muzzle to 325 yards. If an individual can determine "closer than 325 yards" from "farther than 325 yards" it eliminates all mental math to achieve a strike on (a standing) target.

    And, while practice, and some instruction, can enable reliable hits beyond 325 yards, many have counseled that, whatever the distance, unless the target is aware of you and adopted an aggressive posture, executing the "let sleeping dogs lie" option may be the wisest choice, which can also offer sighting and targeting alternatives; in actual combat there are no rules and no such thing as "a fair fight."

    As another side note, many do not understand "trajectory;" the common belief is that "bullet trajectory" describes the smooth arc of an inverted catenary. It does not. From the moment a bullet leaves the muzzle gravity applies force against it to drag it downward until the bullet stops moving. Air resistance stipulates that bullets will slow as the distance from the muzzle increases; if one divides the distance-to-target into increments, each distance increment requires more time to traverse, and gravity operates as a constant across the entire muzzle-to-target distance. That means the trajectory declines at a greater angle the farther the bullet is from the muzzle. Perusing ballistic charts one sees that "drop" increases faster at distance; beginners are often surprised how much bullet drop occurs at distance. If one sits 50-60 feet farther out than the dugouts on the first or third base lines at a baseball game one can easily observe this increase in "drop" on balls hit to deep left or right field (depending on one's seat position).

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  12. Couple things jumped out Joe. I admit not watching it all. I see it at the range every day. Most of the shooters you see at the range are just hacks and stubfarts out to make noise and decompress. Nothing wrong with that. That pretty much sums me up in a nutshell these days.

    No, don’t cheap out on your scope. If you are going to shoot long range, you want all the clarity sharpness you can get. $1200.00 is not unreasonable for a scope in long range shooting. Nobody should be shooting game at 500 yards. Get close, do it with one shot, and be a sportsmen. Slob hunters that wound game are a big problem in this sport.

    Being a serious rifleman is expensive. You need good reloading equipment, a good rifle, good scope and lots of good ammo. There are no shortcuts. Shooting tiny groups is nice but the real measure of a hunter and rifleman is his ability to shoot from the positions. Sling up and get off the damn bench! Most of those guys won’t. When they get a gimme shot on the deer at 100 yards, they are gonna miss it.

    Finally - in serious target shoots, with deadly serious competitors shooting serious rifles… the contestants get one or two sighter shots to confirm their zeroes. Go to Camp Perry - I think they give the shooters two non-scoring sighter shots? The reason for this is that temp and humidity vary from range to range and day to day. Some competitors will tweak their sights, a lot will just leave them alone. If buddy showed up on my range and offered two sighter shots, I can think of half a dozen guys at our club that would take his money in 15 minutes on a good day.

    Finally… find your place on the firing line or in the field and stay in it! You have nothing to be ashamed of and nothing to gain by boasting. The legendary precision guys today shoot rifles costing $8k - $15k. They don’t take rifle accuracy seriously until they are down in the .2 to .3 MOA range. That’s almost a perfectly circular one hole group. You are not going to outshoot him with no experience and a bargain basement beater.

    The only guy that matters in this game is the bum you see in the mirror when you shave in the morning. Keep things in perspective. Most target shoots are gum flapping sessions. A formal target shoot may have sliders and a weiner roast. Out in the field it’s all between you, the deer and God..

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  13. It mildly troubles me when watch a hunting show, the hunter want to know the exact range to his deer. The guide says 132 yards. Does that really impact anything? Is anyone make an adjustment for the difference from their zero? Are they so unfamiliar with the size of the target that the need reassuring that they are in range? I can usually call my shot, up, down, left or right on a target or piece of game and make adjustment as needed.
    For the hunting I have done even out west or for caribou in the Arctic I didn't need better than a 2 inch MOA Remington 700 BDL in 30-06

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    1. If I had the choice between a rougher estimate and a precise distance call, I’d take a precise call. The exact number may not make a difference to my point of aim. But then again, depending on what the exact number, it might make a difference if it gets closer to a point where I would make a change to my hold. What you’re describing, it sounds, is deep familiarity with your equipment. Ultimately that’s most important, but a precise distance call is always helpful.

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  14. Agree with Glen on this one. Friend of mine is on Team USA. $15,000 rifle/scope combo is NOT outrageous. And his groups are .25 MOA on an 'average' day. Also, sighters are the 'norm' at competitions, as the time between zero/dope and actually being on the line WILL introduce errors.

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    1. I am not trying to be argumentative, but your friend is literally a one-in-a-million shooter. There might be 300-to-500 shooters of that capability in the country (population 350M). Even if it was 3500, that is still one-in-one-hundred-thousand.

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  15. Yeah, I had a Ruger M77 in 22-250 that could shoot that well. The hard part is not throwing one of the five. You fuss over a rifle until it is near perfection but people rarely do perfection.

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    1. Most of the shooters in the video had the opposite problem. They were throwing four out of the five.

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  16. For shooting at any meaningful distance there's no substitute for practice. Tons of practice. Preferably done under the supervision of someone who truly understands and can teach it.

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  17. Thou shall dry fire your weapon until there is no movement of thy sight picture, and shoot at tiny targets at varied ranges, until you are proficient. Aim tiny. Learn about your natural respiratory pause and it's effects. Learn about bags and building stable shooting positions. And shoot the ground squirrels, that's what God made them for, making better rifleman!

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