Friday, November 14, 2025

Coming to a city near you?

 


San Francisco mall sold for Eleven-cents on the dollar

I bet the purchaser was standing in line at the Tax Assessor's office the very next day demanding that the "basis" for property taxes be marked-to-market.  

Next up:

Noo Yawk, Noo Yawk
The "fundamental" way to price an asset is to calculate the future after-taxes profit stream and then discount that stream based on the streams of competing assets, expected inflation and probable risks.

Businesses with high fixed costs (like high rent) are exquisitely sensitive to changes in sales volume because such a large portion of their monthly revenue goes toward paying those fixed costs. Changes to things like taxes, even though they might seem like a small percentage to a politician, are devastating to the after-tax profits left after all of the other costs are deducted from the revenue.

Swanky, retail outlets that sell $30k handbags and shoes and bling are extremely vulnerable to purse-snatchings, pick-pockets and smash-and-grabs. People with the money to shop at those kinds of outlets are adverse to getting bloody noses and broken hips. Even a very small up-tick in perceived crime will dry up their foot-traffic.

Gratuitous editorializing

The fragmentation of the Democrats into the moderates (who seem to care about their constituents) and the radicals (who seem to care far more about some smaller groups of constituents than the rank-and-file) is worrisome.

The right is also seeing fragmentation as the anti-semites and loose-cannons are running their own plays. 

It is pretty easy to calculate the orbits of two masses in space. Adding a third mass, especially if it is not orbiting in the same plane as the other two, makes it very, very difficult to predict future outcomes.

It is like the old joke:

Daffus owns 49.5% of a business.

Duckus owns another 49.5% of that same business.

Daffus and Duckus hate each other with the passion of a white-hot sun.

Who controls the business? 

Answer: The person with the least to lose, the one who holds the remaining 1%. 

18 comments:

  1. Bird turds per bowl acceptable?

    Sorry I miss the reference. I know the rules of commercial foodstuffs has allowable bits of nastiness per unit of food.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. How many human turds and used needles are allowed per 100 yards of sidewalk in swanky shopping areas and between tourist attractions?

      Delete
    2. For my shopping experience zero is a good number.

      But you forgot the Scenic Views of acres of homeless tents-tarps and stoned bodies lying about!

      Welcome to the equality of California and NYC, Philadelphia, most of Detroit, Portland and Chicago and other FINE UPSTANDING Blue Cities.

      Yet they still get 100+% democratic votes.

      BUT it's TRUMPS FAULT..

      Amazing how Mass Media Propaganda keeps it going.

      Delete
  2. Shopping malls are becoming a relic of the past...for a number of reasons, with Internet shopping being the primary cause.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LOL, nothing to do with the rampaging teens, drunks and stoners and such, eh?

      They were dying long before Amazon was a real popular thing.

      Amazon's SUCCESS was due to the above factors I mentioned. A lot of folks even today would like to put hands on things before buying them.

      Delete
  3. RE the punch bowl: I immediately saw a human head in it. Pareidolia in action. Rotate the pic 90 degrees CW for an upright head.
    Haven't been to a mall in a decade or more.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Now add in the 80% drop in property taxes on top of the existing loss in sales tax revenue AND employment taxes for impacts on city/county revenue.

    It should be a wake-up call for the City government to start cleaning up the city but I doubt anything will change.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Rwading responses to this post with radio on playing a local talk show which just had a clip of AOC bloviating that illegals comng here don't come to commit crimes. AARRRGH. Such stupidity is unbelievable, I'll quit now.

    ReplyDelete
  6. From $1.2B to $11M sale is close to 90% drop in value... I'd be screaming about taxes too!!!

    ReplyDelete
  7. ERJ, as it turns out I have been to that shopping mall in its early declining days when some of the smaller stores had left but the main anchor stores remained. Even then it was odd being in a luxury mall with so many empty stores.

    Currently there are only two kinds of malls: Upscale malls in economically robust places that are doing well and failing malls that are not. There is no middle ground.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I would differ on calling people who see the Genocide and call it out 'antisemite' and loose cannon.
    First, that is the function William F. Buckley played for the establishment. He closed the door on conservative thought as a narrative control agent. We lost many good men like Goldwater and Buchanan to people like him. Care to guess who funded and nurtured his magazine thru its early stages?
    Second, we played this eGOP game before, with every choice of the people eliminated, leaving us only Bushes and Romney types. I am not playing that game ever. If you want the hotels of the base you have to put the base first.

    But the big issue is GENOCIDE. There is no fence. If you kill babies, toddlers, small children, old men and women, doctors and nurses at their jobs, At Scale - you are vermin. If you support the above, you are no different.

    Please make a statement on the Genocide so we will know WHO you are. You have always seemed such a nice Midwestern type, so where do you stand.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wow, what brought all this to this thread?

      What does it have to do with failing retail real estate and such?

      Did you happen to drop a message on the wrong site? No, you're talking about "nice midwestern type" so that's unlikely.

      Michael the anon today it seems.

      Delete
    2. I'll play. Since Gaza (I assume you mean Gaza) is not a nation, or sovereign country, and that the people are not ethnically dissimilar, nor is the culture distinct, the term genocide cannot, in reality, apply.

      The end.

      Delete
    3. "...the big issue is GENOCIDE. There is no fence. If you kill babies, toddlers, small children, old men and women, doctors and nurses at their jobs, At Scale - you are vermin. If you support the above, you are no different."

      You were not specific, but I assume that you are referring to Israel's response to the massacres of October 7, 2023.

      Sure, I will own it.

      There are reasons why civilized nations who signed the Geneva, Haig and other "conventions" do not put militarily strategic functions "aka, targets" beneath churches, mosques, schools, hospitals, dense residential areas.

      That is because war is hell. The idea of surgical-precision in war is bullshit. There is god-awful messy and there is slightly less god-awful messy.

      Even without a hostile military action, putting an ammo-dump with 2,750 tonnes of ammonium-nitrate based explosives in Beirut wasn't actually brilliant. Shit happens. when it involves four million pounds of high-explosive, it happens energetically.

      If the Israeli detonate an air-fuel explosion in the Hamas tunnels and it blows up schools and clinics...whose fault is that?

      If Hamas suicide bombers wearing vests filled with nuts, bolts and rat-poison detonates the vest on a public bus...whose fault is that? The two cannot be placed in the same category.

      (reposted with correct units)

      Delete
    4. Rick, the NAZI's killed more than just Jews, does that make you a Holocaust denier.
      ERJ, just wow. I am gobsmacked by your lack of humanity. Nothing else to say.

      Delete
    5. And the anonymous troll well fed wanders off satisfied.

      Delete
    6. Anon 7:21. "Nothing else to say."

      Perhaps too much to hope for but does that mean that you will never comment on this blog again?

      Delete
    7. ERJ@412: Luckily, I wasn't eating/drinking anything when I read your reply. Heh. You display admirable restraint, sir.

      Delete

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