Genetic Drift

An earlier post asked "Are there more crazy people now?" and the body of the text focused on how the pressures of environmental "triggers" have increased for most causes.

The genetic portion which is responsible for 60%-to-85% of the cases was not discussed in that post.

Are more people carrying "crazy-genes" then they did in the past?

The short answer is "yes".

Life was a constant struggle for sane, well adjusted people in the slums of Limerick, Liverpool and Hamburg. It was fatal for crazy-people.

As recently as 1900 in developed countries like Ireland, England and Germany, if your mother was crazy you were probably not going to live to see your first birthday.

Infant mortality in Ireland starting in 1930 at 85/1000 live births in urban areas.

 

Infant mortality in Ireland 1960-2020 ending up at about 3/1000 live births.

If you were a crazy-woman, your best chance of getting married was to get pregnant and "trap" an impulsive man. There was  a pretty good chance he was also crazy or was an alcoholic.

As her child, your best hope for survival was to be placed in an orphanage, which in turn greatly reduced your chances of marrying and producing children.

In total, crazy-genes had a high probability of "dead-ending". In those days the pool of crazy people resulted from random meetings of recessive genes or in new mutations.

Flash-forward to the permissive, Welfare-State

Anecdotally, one of our local characters who was called "Homeless Girl" had five children before age 25 and they were all removed by Child Protective Services because: 

• She was homeless
• She was addicted to drugs and could not care for them

Eventually, she O.D.ed in the bathroom of a fast-food restaurant.

The average woman in the United States has her first child at age 27-1/2 years.

That means that this crazy-woman had FIVE children before the average, not-crazy woman had her first. And all of the crazy-woman's children survived.

This is happening (with minor variations in the details) all over the United States and Europe. 

Numerically, that means that back when "crazy-genes" self-extinguished we experienced a rate of approximately 5% seriously crazy people. Now the crazy-people genes are subsidized rather than exposed to Darwinian selection and the numbers are growing much faster (due to high risk behaviors) than the numbers of not-crazy people. 

Fine Art Tuesday

 

 "The Ramp Grove is a secluded old growth forest remnant along the Middle Fork of the Snoqualmie River in Washington State. We identified it on satellite images. We named it the Ramp Grove because it is an unusual ramp-like geologic formation with cliffs above and below. It starts at 1500 feet and tops out at 2000 feet."
Too isolated to log economically.

Hat-tip to Lucas Machias

Lessons from Jake Paul

 

A Social Media personality decided it would be a lark to go into the boxing ring with a top-tier, professional boxer.

The personality had a few photo-op bouts with ancient Mike Tyson and assorted wannabes and he didn't totally embarrass himself, so he decided that he was ready for prime-time.

I think it was Joe Rogan who called it. "Anthony Joshua is going to f___ing kill him." 

And Anthony Joshua did. It was like watching a hungry wolf execute a Golden Retriever. The wolf is a pro. His life depends on efficiently killing the prey. The Golden Retriever is play-acting. Jake Paul was not capable of defending himself. He was always a half-step behind and Anthony Joshua was reading him like a book.

Death of "...the narrative"

One of my kids asked me "Why are you so negative about Meghan Markle?"

If I am honest, it is because I resent her certainty that top-dollar script-writers and video camera-men are more important than decades of experience. 

I have a nephew who is a cook in Napa, California. He has been busting his ass for twenty years and has satisfying some of the most affluent and critical clientele in the world. And he will never get one-tenth of 1% of the accolades that Markle demands as her marriage dowry.

"The Rev" (my nephew) works 18 hour days and, with support, bangs-out  flawless 7 course meal for a wedding reception for 200 guests. From scratch. And he can do it four days in a row. Week-after-week-after-week.

He is not unique. There are legions of people like him in every city in the US. 

Markle does not even know how to hold a pastry bag. 

And the "...strong, independent woman..." insists on using her maiden name, except when she thinks using the surname "Windsor" is more to her benefit. Even though the only reason people pay any attention to her is because some dude named Andrew married her.

My super-powers

My super-power is that Mrs ERJ seems happier when I am around.

My dog likes me. 

Most of the time, my kids will respond to my texts if I ask a direct question.

I am pretty good at keeping gas in the tanks of our vehicles.

Beyond that, I am pretty humble. I have no desire to make a spectacle of myself by claiming to be more than I am. The higher the monkey climbs, the clearer the view everybody else has of his backside. 

Asymmetric Information

 

"Just Divorced" stick family

 

This is a follow-up on the previous post "Human Trafficking".

From the comments 

Milton, one of my regular readers commented about mothers needing to rethink the threat situation and then he added 

"...With a Mama Bear mentality and defensive handgun training (***last minute gift idea fellas***), let the gift purchasing be left to Dad."

Let me point out that he did not write "Purchase the mother of your children a firearm" because that would be a violation of the Federal Firearm code sometimes called "a straw purchase".

He suggested finding a certified trainer who is experienced in training WOMEN.

Women are not men. On average, women have smaller hands than men. From a physical standpoint they can have difficulty racking the slide due to hand-strength and upper-body strength issues. 

My sister had a boyfriend who bought her a Derringer in .45 Colt. Maybe not the best choice. Not my sister's hands.

Some women are extremely petite and will have a hard time "hiding" a concealed carry. Most women's clothing, especially for younger women, is form-fitting. Perversely, the firearms most suitable for deep-carry (like Derringers) have brutal recoil and limited-to-very limited ammo capacity. 

Women are more likely to be "talked down-to" when purchasing a firearm and end up with a firearm that they are not comfortable with. They are less likely to ask questions especially when men are around. 

Maybe the hardest thing for a woman to wrap their mind around is that they have to know when they pick up a weapon that the MUST be willing to pull the trigger without hesitation when the need arises. At some point there is no more time to "talk about it" or "call a friend" or "exercise conflict de-escalation techniques". If you wait for +100% certainty* then you (and your kids) will be the victims.

Asymmetric information

Going back to the scout cruising the parking lot looking for kids to nab at the local big-box grocery store. Most parents are going to think "My kids are responsible and would never open the door for a stranger." right?

Visualize kid(s) playing on their phones in a Honda Odyssey or Ford Bronco with the "cute" stick-figure family shown at the top on its back window.

Now visualize an older person in a Walmart vest banging on the window and yelling "Oh my God! Oh my God! Your mom fell and hit her head. She needs you right now!!!" What "responsible kid" will fail to rush to his/her mom's aid?

If the kid hesitates, the faux employee can add "She needs you to unlock her phone so she can call for help."

That stick-figure family that "mom" modified to stick her thumb in the eye of her "ex" just made her family a prime target because it gives potential abductors a credible back-story. They KNOW that the shopper is not "dad". They know that the kids will be hyper-protective of "mom".

We live in an era of Too Much Information. Most people share personal information as if they were writing in their best girl-friend's high school year book. Facebook is probably the worst offender but even a bumper sticker can share too much information. That information can be used against you. 

Incidentally, I applaud all of my commentors. You are very discrete in what information you share. Keep up the good work. 

Regarding the issue of "sensationalism"

There were 254 "Human Trafficking" cases (some involving multiple people) identified in Michigan in 2023. Is that a lot for in a state with 10 million people? Link

I sent an email to the person who shared the information with me. I asked for permission to attribute the quotes to her and/or for "original sources" to quote. I sent it at 5:38 p.m. on Saturday but she hasn't gotten back to me. 

I decided to exercise executive privilege and run the post anyway due to time urgency. I trust that my readers are mature and can decide if any "entertainment" I post on this blog applies to your situation or not. 

*99.1% certainty + redundant confirmation 

Human trafficking

 

A person who follows these issues closely recently informed me that we are at "annual peak human trafficking".

She said that the Super Bowl represents the largest "event" for the human trafficking industry. And industry it is. Orders are made. Delivery time-tables are specified. "Products" are delivered. 

For a kidnapped child to show up in Southern California (where the 2026 Super Bowl will be held), they must be scooped up this week. Fortunately for the kidnappers, the frenzy of Christmas shopping makes it easy to have a scout cruise parking lots and calling in "teams" to nab kids left in cars to play with their "device" while mom or dad is making last-minute purchases.

One reason this isn't covered in the news outlets and captured in the FBI UCR system is that there is a break-down in reporting as files-are-cleared at the end of the year. Law enforcement agencies have a limited number of days to report-out end-of-year data before the results are compiled... Overburdened agencies face a lot of "moral hazard" to disappear reporting incidents that happen in the last half of December.

Another factor at play is many "missing children" are assumed to be muddled custody issues as they are passed back-and-forth between separated parents. The Christmas-New Years period is probably peak-chaos for custody conflicts and it is easy to assume that "Brad" is being an asshole. Little does the custodial parent know that their child is in a basement in Detroit getting addicted to drugs to make them compliant in time for The Big Party in Southern California.

My source informed me that the largest demographic for "orders" are for children between the ages of 5-and-11 (gender not specified!). Then next biggest demographic this time of year is for white women between the ages of 35-and-70 for the purpose of "Harem Masters". And yes, they are also addicted to drugs.

The third biggest demographic is for minority men between the ages of 20-and-30 as "Pimps" to keep the "Harem Masters" in line. 

These people are all expendable. In fact, they become a liability as the party "fizzles out" and they become potential witnesses/evidence. All of those little kiddies seen in the Epstein photos? Yeah, they are dead.

I know it sounds like a horrible Liam Neeson movie but as I get older it becomes harder and harder to find any act that is so depraved that there are not people actively engaged in and profiting from it. 

Bottom Line

Take your children with you into the store when you shop or leave them at home with a responsible adult. Don't leave them in the vehicle. Don't let them bring their "device".

Keep track of them while you are in the store. Pro-tip, buy them helium balloons and tie them to your child's wrist. Leave the ribbon long enough that the balloon can be seen above the racks.

Order stuff on-line and have it delivered. It probably won't arrive in time for Christmas Day but you can point out that there are 12 DAYS of Christmas. Jesus himself didn't get his Christmas gifts until the Magi arrived and that was NOT on the day of his birth. 

Stay away from crowds! 

Frequency of DIAGNOSED Mental Illnesses in the US

Jonathan commented on the previous post:

"...in some circles it (a mental illness diagnosis) is celebrated so people look for and encourage diagnoses that may not be medically accurate."

My perception is that many "sophisticated" players are gaming the system to take advantage of the "...reasonable accommodations..." for people with "disabilities" in the Americans with Disabilities Act.

If a sophomore in high school can get a "label", then those accommodations often include extra time to complete tests. That includes the SAT and ACT which are college entrance exams. Sometimes those accommodations are so burdensome to the faculty that they allow the student to take the test home to complete.

Those labels follow the student to college where they offer the same advantages. Some "disabilities" impact the ability to read and so the "reasonable accommodation" involves supplying a person to read the questions out-loud. Some "disabilities" involve attention deficits and so the university is legally required to offer the student a private room (perhaps without a proctor to watch for cheating) to take the test.

By the numbers:

Recent annual rates of various mental/emotional health disorders in the United States (Link):

• Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders: 1.2%
• Borderline Personality, Cluster B Disorder:  1.5%
• Bipolar Disorders: 2.8%
• Post Traumatic Stress Disorders: 4.1%
• Substance Abuse + Mental Health Diagnosis: 8.1%
• Major Depressive Disorder: 15.5%
• Anxiety Disorder: 19.1% 

(Anxiety and Depression are two sides of the same coin. Anxiety happens when a young person struggles to keep up with his herd/tribe. Depression happens when the young adult realizes that he will NEVER be able to keep up with his tribe) 

Diagnosed mental/emotional health disorder rates by selected demographic silos (Link):

• Male: 20%
• Female: 26.7%
• LGB: 53:2%

Stats from another website (Link):

 

Serious mental illness (SMI) is defined as a mental, behavioral, or emotional disorder resulting in serious functional impairment, which substantially interferes with or limits one or more major life activities. 

Bottom line

1 in every 9 Gen Z in the work-force has been diagnosed with "Serious Mental Illness. 

1 in every 13 Millennial has been diagnosed with "Serious Mental Illness". 

If you are in a group of 20 random people, there is a good chance that there is at least one person in that group who is unhinged.

Plan accordingly. 

 

Are there more crazy people now?

 

Let's look specifically at Schizophrenia because it is among the most studied mental health disorders and many mental health issues share comorbidities. That is, if you are diagnosed with one "disorder" then there is a pretty good chance that at some point you will also be diagnosed with another disorder as symptoms evolve and manifest. So it is reasonable to assume that the "triggers" or environmental risk factors for Schizophrenia are likely to be risk factors for other mental illnesses.

Schizophrenia is also of interest because Nick Reiner was (reportedly) diagnosed with it. Schizophrenia is one of the "lifetime" diagnosis unlike Anxiety Disorder or Depression which can come-and-go.

It is currently believed that Schizophrenia is highly heritable and that the external "risk factors" that trigger it represent between 15%-and-40% of the aggregate risk. Some of those external risk factors* include (Link):

• In-Utero Trauma (bleeding, diabetes, rhesus incompatibility, preeclampsia, low birth-weight, oxygen deprivation, malnutrition, drug-use, other) Link
• Infections 
• Migration 
• Urban environments
• Childhood Trauma
• Cannabis use 

Let's look at them one-at-a-time

In-Utero Trauma: I would rate this as slightly elevated compared to 20 and 40 years ago. From anecdotal evidence, recent immigrants are less likely to seek prenatal care and might not even be paying attention to their pg/non-pg status...risk factor slightly increased.

Infections: Specifically Toxoplasma gondii and Chlamydia. T. gondii is spread via untreated fecal material, primarily from cats. Chlamydia rates increased by 50% between 2000 and 2015...so this risk-factor increased.

Migration: Migration to the United States showed a very large increase in the 2021-to-2024 (inclusive) time-frame. Literature specifies 1st and 2nd generations being at increased risk....so this risk-factor increased.

Urban environments: My perceptions is that there is a small, net outward migration from highly urban environments. I will call this....risk factor slightly decreased.

Childhood Trauma: It has been observed that the most dangerous person in a young child's life is his mother's new boyfriend. Traditional families continue to shred....risk factor increased. 

Cannabis Use: It has been decriminalized at the state level and legalized in many "Blue" states. Furthermore the level of THC in samples obtained "on the street" have increased by a factor of three between 2000 and 2019....risk factor increased. 

Tallying up the count, five of the six environmental risk factors increased with three of them increasing substantially. One of the six risk factors shows a weak improvement.

Conclusion: Perceived increases in rates of severe mental illness is factual and not a figment of reporting or in increasingly aggressive diagnosis or more expansive definition of diagnostic criteria.

 

Note to readers: I will be busy today and expect to be back-in-the-saddle tomorrow. Responses to comments will be slow. 

Bonus video

 Hat-tip to Lucas Machias.

 

* Poor sleep-hygiene was mentioned as a risk-factor for Bipolar Disorder (aka, Manic-Depressive or Jekkyl-and-Hyde Disorder) but not in the paper referenced. Forty years ago broadcast TV shut-down after midnight and people didn't stay awake round-the-clock "gaming". Except for some convenience stores, nearly all businesses shut-down for maintenance or cleaning every night. That has been a major change during my lifetime.