Donald and Hillary and Willow trees

Original image from HERE

This analysis of Twitter feeds came out last June.  It rated the various candidates from most liberal to most conservative.  The vertical blue line shows Hillary Clinton.  The vertical red line shows Donald Trump.  At this point, they are the front runners for their respective parties.

Trump

There are two ways one can fail when analyzing data.

One can fail to extract the information that is inherently in the data.  An example would be when an investor fails to get out from beneath the falling piano when every indicator suggests the market will tank.

The other failure is to draw too many conclusions from the data.  An example is when an analyst uses the same data to test multiple hypothesis.  Each hypothesis that is tested increases the odds that one of them will pass "by accident or coincidence".  An example can be found HERE with regard to Trump.

My operative hypothesis is that Trump is a showman who is attuned to his audience and is masterful at playing it.  I am not sure that qualifies him for President.

Image from HERE.  On a practical note, willow trees should never be planted upwind of ponds.  The leaves deplete the oxygen in the water and cause winter kill. 

Trump appears to be a mirror image of the likely Democratic contender.  The only difference is that he is pandering to a different audience.  Ideologically I think they are both as steady as willow trees in a windstorm.

My brother

One of my brothers is a Progressive.  He is aghast at the prospect of a Trump Presidency.  He hopes that Trump refuses the nomination and hoots on the delegates:

"Punked you!  Stupid baztards.  Whadda bunch of chumps."

I give that a 0.1% chance of happening.  But if it does, remember, you heard it here first.

Changing the culture

I am mystified when people say "You cannot change the culture." or "You cannot legislate morality."  If anything, history teaches us that culture is extremely malleable.

How many people remember this song about the "Trucker" lifestyle?  That lifestyle died with deregulation.

Sometimes it is driven by technology:

• Agriculture
• Industrialization
• Internal combustion engines 
• Birth control pills
• Semiconductors
• Internet
• Cell phones

Sometimes it is driven by government actions

• LB Johnson's War on Poverty
• RM Nixon's War on Drugs
• RM Nixon's normalizing relations with Mainland China
• Mainland China embracing free enterprise

Sometimes it is an interplay between the two...the sexual revolution spawned by birth control pills interacting with Johnson's War on Poverty.  Ironically, this did not result in a reduction in out-of-wedlock births, primarily because of perverse incentives.

This blog sometimes talks about leverage points where I believe the culture could be moved.

• Several proposals in this essay, including one on eliminating "Welfare Cliffs"
• Change welfare from 100% entitlement to include a significant (30%?) variable component
• Yesterday's post on Pay to Pollute.

The inescapable conclusion is that there are multiple, interlocking parts of society who want to keep people helpless and dependent.  They would rather partition off vast swaths of society and treat them as little more than zoo exhibits.   Even the dullest of people can pick up on the attitude.  That is why many parts of our culture act like animals.  How else would they act?

If human lives matter, then we need to stop squandering their human capital while they are alive.

The first argument against

"There is no market for minimally skilled workers"

The traditional answer for this comment is to suggest that the under-employed worker "up-skill".

This ignores the fact that many people simply lack the mental horsepower to up-skill and that even those jobs are currently limited.

The other answer is to lower the cost of living so even marginal work, the kind done buy unskilled workers, is economical for businesses.

A quick example:  The welfare system pegs the bottom end of the housing market.  Vendored payments put a floor on what landlords will charge.  That makes it tough for a young guy, working a part-time job to move out into the economy.  His wallet cannot compete with the Government.

The mom was helped at the expense of the young man.  Much later, she will still have her male children living in her apartment as adults and the state will not be paying her.  But she does not think that far ahead.  Or if she does, she selectively aborts her male children.

Getting the government out of the rent paying business would unlock a big part of the economy.

Wise Mind

According to Maria Leinart, creator of the therapy known as DBT, our minds can function in three different modes. 

The first mode is emotion based, it is the primitive, "reptilian" brain that I consider to be our native operating system.  The native system has the advantage of quickness and "takes over" when it feels threatened.  (This is Kahneman's "System One")

The mode that is on the other side of the spectrum is the rational, thinking mind.  It is an alien application operating in the native "Emotion mind" operating system.  As an alien system, it is the first things jettisoned when the operating system is threatened.

Maria calls her third state of mind "Wise Mind".  That is when the person is fully aware of the tugs and flows between the reptilian mind and the rational mind and deliberately seeks a perfect balance...or at least a balance that can be maintained.

Cops

"Name?"
"Please spell it."
"Address?"
"Please repeat it and spell the street name."
"Was that '...ley or ...lly'?"
"Phone number?"
"Cell phone number?"
"Please repeat.  You went too fast for me to write that down."

According to Maria, one of the best ways to pull a person stuck in reptilian mind back into "wise mind" is to have them repeat some simple lists.  That forces them to access the logical mind and slows down the crocodile enough so the logical mind can re-boot.

Collecting all of that information, very first thing, is part of the culture of being a cop.  I doubt that it was consciously noticed and deliberately added to the script.  I think it was an evolution based on what worked.

Sometimes police respond to domestic situations when an adolescent is out-of-control.  I think most police do a great job with the script on the parents but do not use it on the teen.  There are probably a couple of reasons....for one thing the teen is a minor.  For another, crocodiles make us nervous and we tend to hope they will calm down on their own.

If Maria Leinart is right, then the fastest way to calm down a dysregulated teen might be to ask them their cell phone number and to list the classes they are taking at school.  "And please spell that."

Pay to Pollute

Industry polluted because that was the most cost effective way to deal with waste.  They quickly cleaned up their act when it became more expensive to pollute than to not-pollute.

As an ever-helpful conservative, I am always ready to help the goberment.

Most conservatives accept Pigou's Solution as a legitimate reason to levy taxes.  That is, to levy taxes as a way to re-associate externalized costs back to the source of those costs.  Some people call it "Pay to Pollute".

Hate speech and trigger words

Most progressives dislike "hate speech".  Besides making them uncomfortable they contend that hate speech incites violence.  If true, then hate speech is very expensive.

In very, very round numbers, corporations pay about $4M for every wrongful death and product liability suit.  That number is roughly based on the contributions the deceased could have made to society had their life not been cut short.  It is likely that fatalities attributable to hate speech, even if the hate speech is only a contributing cause, would have a similar cost to society.  Most victims of death triggered by hate speech are young...in their late-teens and early-twenties.

The proposal:

Every song shall be subjected to a "Pay to Pollute" tax on the words "fuck" "kill", "cunt", "bitch" and "nigger".  This list is not inclusive and may be expanded.  Additionally, a "Pay to Pollute" tax shall be assessed against radio stations and streaming services based on Neilson ratings for each time they broadcast "polluting" words.

Every copy that is downloaded shall be assessed a tax of $1 for each use of the words shown above.   Every time a polluting word is broadcast the broadcaster shall pay $0.10 per listener.

For example, the song Me, Myself & I uses the word "fuck" four times so the cost to download would be $1.29 + $4, or $5.29.  Surely a small price to pay for artwork.

Tupac Shakur, cause of death:  Multiple gunshot wounds.

Another example is Hit Em Up by Tupac Shakur.  It uses the word "fuck" in various incarnations 45 times, the word "nigger" in various forms 20 times and the word "bitch" six times.  This proposal would price a download of 2Pac's Hit Em Up at $72.29.  And here is a small sample of 2Pac's masterpiece

All you motherfuckers, fuck you too (take money, take money)
All of y'all mother fuckers, fuck you, die slow, motherfucker
My .44 make sure all y'all kids don't grow...

Not what I would consider uplifting.

I am sure a good statistician could find a market and make a first order approximation of the cost incurred for each polluting word.  Chicago, for instance, has several good Universities and is a stand-alone market.  I am sure it is within the capability of folks at University of Chicago or Northwestern University to calculate a fair tax.

Out of fairness, other towns with a high rate of gun ownership but with a lower percentage of rap aficionados, say Billings, Montana....Provo, Utah and Boise, Idaho could be used as a control to remove the effect of gun ownership.

I will do half the work.  In Chicago there were 444 murders (by gun) in 2015.  At $4M a pop, that is approximately $1,800,000,000 for one city, for one year.

I expect the fine legislators in Illinois to jump on this.  Those tax revenues will be very useful in closing up the staggering shortfall in their pension funding.

Joint and Several 

Unfortunately, we have learned that we cannot always rely on our legislators to do the right thing.

Our Founding Fathers had the wisdom to foresee this.  Consequently there is a parallel legal system, the civil law system.

If there are no laws that apply to the harmful behaviors, then the injured party (sometimes known as the next-of-kin) have the option of taking the source of the injury to civil court.

Should a young man be cut down in a hail of bullets on a dark, city street; it should be a small matter to collect the killer's electronic devices and access his logs or playlists.  From there, the "trigger words" can be tallied up and culpability apportioned to the studios that recorded and released the music.

That would  be an interesting lawsuit.

Activists say...

Activists have been known to claim that aggressive civil litigation has been known to reverse industry's stand against regulation.  They claim that compliance with Federal Law becomes de facto proof of due diligence and that complying with one set of laws is less draining than defending against hundreds of law suites in hundreds of different jurisdictions.  Industries beg for Federal Laws when the cost of defending themselves in the civil arena becomes to onerous.

I don't know if this is true.  I am not a lawyer.  Nor am I privileged to sip Chardonnay with many activists.

Leila Arboretum: Part 3

Image from HERE

If you have ever hunted birds or rabbits with a dog you know that there are three profoundly different ways to go about it.

The best way is when the hunter views his dog as a teammate.  There are some things the dog can do that you cannot do.  For example, you cannot smell birds from 40 yards away, nor is it likely that you can run 30 miles on a warm afternoon.  Your dog, on the other hand, cannot drive nor can he legally carry a firearm.  You may be partners but you are not equal partners...you are complementary partners.  These dogs are a joy to watch in the field.  They hunt.

Another way is to view your dog as a mindless robot.  You become frustrated when he shows no interest in hunting "cover".  You are too obtuse to realize that your dog knew, before you were halfway across the field that there were no birds in those old Giant Ragweed stalks.  Your dog, bred and trained to hunt, becomes frustrated.  You clearly don't want to hunt otherwise you would not be wasting time where there were no birds.  These dogs don't hunt, they sulk or bite...they frustrate because they, themselves, are frustrated.

The flip side is the owner who abdicates all responsibility.  The hunter who views his dog as a teammate guides his dog, often with subtle body language that is nearly imperceptible.  The abdicator throws all the responsibility on his dog's shoulders.  These are the dogs that run away and get hit by cars.  These dogs don't hunt, they go feral.

Back to the Arboretum

I finally made it to the administrative office.

I had to drive by a Children's garden.  It was closed for the season.

To the west was a large sculpture garden.

I got lucky and caught Brett Meyers, the director, in his office and we had a nice chat.

Peace Labyrinth

He filled me in on some of the Arboretum's initiatives.

• Fantasy Forest Art Exhibition where dead ash trees are turned into impromptu sculptures.  2016 effort.
• "Carburetum" Antique and old car exhibitions
• Cardboard sled competition (This weekend!  February 20)
• Ugly sweater competition
• Venue for various 5k runs
• Venue for music festivals
• 18 hole disc golf course
• Urbandale community garden
• Peace Labyrinth

I commented on the scope of the activities and asked how that came about.

He attributed it to the Arboretum's Board of Directors.  He said that they have an expansive, inclusive view of the community they serve.  They want to expand their presence in the community so more people have a sense of ownership in the Arboretum.

I think he is modest

I interacted with several volunteers and staff:  Everyone was a dog that could hunt.

For example:  I ran into the groundsperson before I left.  I mentioned that I had a couple of questions about a few of the specimens.  Of course, identifying exactly which specimens can be a challenge when you have 85 acres of planting.

She said, "Let's go look." even though it was a half mile from the office.

After addressing my concerns, she said, "Earlier today you asked me if there was anything that I was particularly proud of, something that was a 'must see'.  Since we are out here, there is something I want to show you."

And then she showed me three Lacebark Pine  (Pinus bungeana) trees that she had planted in 1993.  I think she figured out that I am into edible landscaping and Lacebark Pine is one of the nut pines.

I think Brett is working with a great Board of Directors and a fantastic bunch of staff and volunteers.  I also think he knows how to hunt with dogs.

Leila Arboretum: Part 2

One of the groundskeepers caught me taking a picture through the window of a greenhouse.

She invited me inside to get a closer look.

Brassicas are the heavy lifters of the winter, greenhouse garden.  Leila Arboretum is growing mostly collards this winter.  That is a great choice.  Other than kale and Asian Greens, more "developed" forms of brassicas trade style for photosynthesis efficiency.  Efficiency is the name of the game during the short, gray days of the winter.

The yellow thing in the foreground is a sticky trap for monitoring and control of insect pests.

Battle Creek, Michigan

Battle Creek is the center of America's breakfast food industry.  Before that, it was the center of a vast number of "sanitariums" that focused on nutrition and health.  The idea was radical:  Replace the "aspirational" breakfast of 6 fried eggs, half pound of fried potatoes, half pound of fried sausage and four slices of white bread saturated with butter with a breakfast based on cereals and and other foods of plant origin.

A large number of Seventh Day Adventists settled in Battle Creek.  Even today, Seventh Day Adventists are known for their robust good health and their longevity.  The Seventh Day Adventists in Loma Linda, California have been tagged as a "Blue Zone" for the large number of people who live beyond the age of 100.  The city of Battle Creek still benefits from their influence.

So maybe it is not surprising that Leila Arboretum is energetic in its mission of supplying the locals with good food.  They may not have enough greenhouse to move the needle for the general populace.  But they can provide some excellent food and serve as a template for others to copy.

Pictures

Spinach.  The beds are fortified with compost made on-site.

Leaf Lettuce

One of the hybrid red Pac Choi.  Red Pac Choi is elegant but the red pigment reduces the efficiency of the plant as it intercepts light.

Fennel.  Man does not live by brassicas along.  Sometimes he/she needs flavor!  The gardeners allowed this volunteer fennel plant to live, even though it was in the middle of a walkway.

This borage plant was also allowed to live, for much the same reason.

Artisan Swiss Chard.  Swiss Chard is a form of beets that has been selected for their lush leaves.

This one Swiss Chard plant has an interesting form.  I wonder if it has any advantage since winter gardening is all about intercepting light.

They even deliver.

You can see where the money goes.  Trickle irrigation line is not cheap.  Neither is a reliable delivery van.  For now, their major market is "boutiquey".  That is very OK.  Folks are more willing to try new things when they think the 0.1% is trying to stop them.

And then they told me...

That the greenhouse is just the tip of the iceberg (pun intended).

They also have a community garden.

This garden is a bit larger than most urban community gardens.  I estimate that it is about a half acre in size.  Each family is given/leased an allotment.  If they desire, they are also provided with technical advice, access to plants and seeds and irrigation.

If you study the picture you will see a variety of crops, including season extenders like brassicas (left, foreground) and a multitude of structures (trellises) to intercept the light that would otherwise be wasted on walkways.  Trellises are beneficial in community gardens.  They are almost mandatory in narrow city lots where vegetables must stretch upward to capture sunlight.

Again, this half acre will not feed a city.  But it keeps the technology alive and can serve as a genesis bomb should the need arise to grow more food locally or should more people desire higher quality, more flavorful, more nutritious food.

Leila Arboretum: Part 1

Leila Arboretum is an 85 acre park in Battle Creek, Michigan.  I had been looking for places to walk as I was getting bored walking the same three miles every day.

Luckily for me, the main loop around the park is exactly one mile long.  The main loop is marked with orange writing.

All that glitters is not gold.  All who wander are not lost.  J.R.R. Tolkien

My trip to the park was a series of pratfalls.  I was not as good at simultaneously navigating and driving as I had previously imagined.  I got to see much of Downtown Battle Creek as I searched for Michigan Avenue.

The one gas station I stopped at did not have maps because....everybody has smart phones.  Everybody but me.

I finally found the place when I turned into the parking lot at the Horticulture Training Center in the northeast corner of the arboretum.

This vehicle was also parked in the lot.

I saw some people in a conference room, I knocked and entered the building.

I had stumbled into a painting class.  The "lead" was very protective of her chicks.  She puffed out her feathers made herself big.  She positioned herself be between me and her charges.  That is one of the downsides of dressing economically.  I look like a derelict.  I am the dog wearing the black jeans and a black winter coat.

The class was composed of adults with disabilities.  The class was organized by Community Inclusive Recreation.  Having a disability is not a requirement to be served by CIR, but most of their clients have some disability...cognitive, physical or emotional.  The Leila Arboretum supports CIR by making facilities available for their use.

The mother hen was just doing her job

Things calmed down after I put on my politest, puppy-dog face.

I promised the artists that I would put their work on the internet.  They thought that was a keen idea.

So, with no further ado:

This is an action shot.  The woman is still working on this flower pot.  These pots will get soil and plants next week.

This gentleman was very outgoing.  I did not intend to take pictures of the clients, although the mother hen said it was OK.  This man wanted to be immortalized on the internet.

This gentleman was very clear that pots should look like dirt and plants.  This, to him, that was harmonious and peaceful.  Some of the most intriguing artwork was on the plates the were using for paint palettes....but them I am weird.

This pot and the one below it were painted by the same woman.  She LOVES art.  I commented on the beads that the woman next to her was wearing.  I learned that this woman also did beadwork and gave them to friends.

Nice colors.  Almost like a Phalaenopsis orchid.

This pot was painted by the proud owner of the beads.

The red figures are flowers.  Clearly, they are snapdragons or salvia.

Picture of an individual salvia flower.  Image from HERE.

I believe that Dr Seuss's genius is that he saw and drew things the way they actually were.  He did not try to cram his represtation into what a flower, a tree or a bird was "supposed" to look like.

These artists demonstrated the same genius as Dr Seuss.  They painted what they saw.  And if their flower did not look like what we thought a flower ought to look like, then the deficiency was more likely to be on our part than theirs.