Overheard
I was at the Lenten Friday Fish Fry yesterday and I overheard a woman insisting that Europe was going to weather the Straights of Hormuz situation better than the US because "They have so many more electric cars and have wisely invested in so much renewable energy."
I clammed up. I was doubtful but until I see data my opinion is worth no more than anybody else's opinion.
A quick look around the world suggests that in decreasing order of impact the list of countries that will be injured by the stoppage of oil from the Persian Gulf are
- Japan and Korea (about 70% of their oil is shipped through the Straights of Hormuz)
- India (between 50% and 90% of their oil imported from the Persian Gulf states). More critically, large numbers of Indians use bottled gas for cooking since electrification is sketchy in many areas.
- China (40%-to-50% from the Persian Gulf) which is about 7% of their national energy use. Coal is going to save their bacon.
- European Union (12%, less than I expected)
- US (7%)
Who benefits?
- Russia
- Kazakhstan
- Nigeria
- Norway
- United Kingdom
- Brazil
- United States
- Egypt (fees associated with SUMED pipeline and increased Suez Canal shipping)
Regarding the number of electric vehicles:
The EU has one electric vehicle for every 44 people while the US has approximately one electric vehicle for every 85. In neither case is that enough to sideline all of the IC vehicles and run the economy.
Kicking the can down the road
There is never an elegant time to stop kicking the can down the road. However, there are times when a confluence of events create an instant in time when it is less-worse to address a difficult issue than others.
Frankly, we have many issues we have been kicking-the-can on: Social Security, Demographic collapse, Erosion of educational standards, Ballooning screen-time and the attendant decline in physical health, Immigration, Election Integrity. Some are being addressed. Others are still in free-fall.
For the European vehicle thing, the total vehicles/person numbers would help.
ReplyDeleteI'm wondering - I thought President Trump had lifted the Biden ban on U.S. drilling policy and we were back to "Drill Baby Drill". Its already been a year - haven't U.S. suppliers had time to accumulate oil ? I know it still requires refining but U.S. oil supply should be better.
ReplyDeleteLike everything else Oil is sold to the highest bidder and Europe after crippling themselves fighting Russia BOUGHT most of America's production "excess".
DeleteRecord profits for oil companies and tanker companies.
Seems Schumer was big on stymieing Trump and didn't allow passage of legislation to refill out depleted Oil Reserves after they were drained in the Biden Presidency.
Lost my post about China's Coal to Oil plants they built in 2024 and ongoing. Seems they don't kick the can and have enough between their production and their Strategic Oil reserves to carry them past Iran being forced offline.
Odd to lose my post when computer saw me as Michael, yet now I'm anonymous and posting.
DeleteComputers are weird.
Yes. China saw this coming and increased their purchases of oil from Brazil, Russian and from Malaysian flagged tankers (carrying Iranian oil). Those purchases are enough to bridge a couple months shortfall. I think they would have bought more if it was available and they had efficient storage.
DeleteThe US has been increasing production for years now. But it takes time.
DeleteIt takes almost a year from the decision to drill a particular well to having product come out of that well.
When roads and pipelines are needed to get that product to market, you can add extra to that year.
Also, don't forget that the environmentalists are doing everything they can to stop any fossil fuel development, especially on federal lands, so that adds more time.
Jonathan
Bless you Joe. But you do know this is all planned, right?
ReplyDeleteEuropean electric vehicles are powered by electricity generated with natural gas. Qatar was - note past tense - supplying them with their natural gas.
ReplyDeleteThe European LNG price, represented by the Dutch TTF Natural Gas (TFAc1) contract has resumed its ascent. It is now € 50.12 per MW and climbing steadily from € 30 before Epic Fury. It has been as high as € 63. Note that the Europeans actually price their natural gas in megawatts.
European electricity rates to consumers are now somewhere above € 0.10 per kWh, with the utilities' actual costs running double that.
Of course diesel, the other popular European fuel, has also seen eyewatering price increases since the source of most of it, the Saudi Ras Tanura refinery, shut down. Diesel is trading on the Frankfurt Boerse at something above € 1,000 per metric ton, up about 70% since Epic Fury began.
Germany slit it's own throat at the altar of renewable energy, and is suffering greatly for it. France has kept their nuclear generation online, in stark contrast.
ReplyDeleteUltimately, things like electric vehicles all depend on power sources of some kind Renewable energy can work in some places, but it is dependent on natural factors (thermal activity, water, sunlight) that are beyond the control of individual countries. Where countries and governments have doubled down in spite of those factors, things can become tenuous when things like supply chains break.
ReplyDeleteThe supply chain issue was already demonstrated as a risk during The Plague. The fact little has been done since that time may be manifesting itself.