Not to be dramatic, but the key characteristic of chaos is that chaos is unpredictable. By definition, it is impossible to predict the unpredictable. What CAN be predicted is how groups of people will RESPOND to chaos.
Visualize that you are driving on Interstate 40 or I-70 across the western plains. You can see for miles in every direction and it is very clear that there are no hazards that will intersect your path. If you were so inclined and your vehicle and tires were up to the task, there is no reason that you could not safely drive at 140 mph.
Now visualize driving through a slum on a foggy day. You KNOW there is chaos out there even if you cannot identify specifically WHAT hazards were intersect with the time-bubble of your path. Potholes, stalled cars, kids dropping rocks from overpasses, druggies passed out in the street, "sharps" that will puncture tires, gangs, car-jackers blasting through red-lights... Fifteen miles per hour might be pushing your luck. The irony is that some hazards, like the gangs, are best navigated at high-speed. Screwed if you do and screwed if you don't.
Implications
- Time horizons will be compressed...and then they will be compressed even more.
- Investment horizons will be pulled in.
- Businesses will stop building production plants and investing in product development.
- Oil companies will stop drilling and start deferring maintenance on infrastructure.
- Unions will refuse to sign contracts with long durations which will guarantee more frequent labor strife.
- New construction of housing will dry up.
- Interest rates will rise and long-term loans will be very difficult to obtain.
- Individuals will be less willing to invest in speculative "upgrades" to their skills.
- Birth-rates will fall off a cliff.
- Only the insane will join the military which will force a return to the draft, probably with elaborate safeguards to ensure DEI quotas.
True thoughts presented there. I work for an architectural office which has a wide varied clientele. Banks - private companies - strip malls - production factories - apartment complexes. The developers - owners of these properties aren't fools. They keep their finger in the air, testing to see if the near future brings confidence of profits to be made from their investments. If profits are questionable - they won't spend until the situation reverses. They have bills too. Quite a few of our projects have been put on hold because of the current environment.
ReplyDeleteWho is going to win the election is a big factor in their decisions. I don't blame them waiting to see what the election result will be.
Interstate 40 does not go through Kansas, Interstate 70 does, 40 goes through Oklahoma.
ReplyDeleteFixed it. Thanks
DeleteClose enuf. point taken. Woody
ReplyDeleteAnd the resulting panic will be manipulated and steered by big government, big pharma and big corporations.---ken
ReplyDeleteSpecific to the strike, the assumption is that Kamala sides with the Union, Trump will push back.
ReplyDeleteHow many people today would be more than willing to work for the CURRENT contract terms?
They might just wish they had settled today with the powers in place, then to wait for what could be. Trumps first act- "dissolve the labor relations Board"
I’m (re-)reading Captains and The Kings again. The control of EVERYTHING by the men behind the scenes really is eye-opening. It dovetails well with current events.
ReplyDeleteSouthern NH
ERJ, in a way this is simply reflective of the larger U.S. political system as a whole: We never "solve" budget crises, we merely push them down the road through a series of stopgap measures. This is no different.
ReplyDeleteIf the Vice Resident wins, look for the union to expect a payback. Also, look for industry to start seeking other solutions. Also look for the cost of everything to rise to cover the additional transporation costs.
And every one of those items you have listed is then on the table. The incentive to succeed and invest will be removed. Other countries will benefit. Why risk capital when the only outcome is have it taken away from you?
Paybacks. Yeah. There is that.
DeleteIn a free society resources are free to flow to the enterprises that offer the greatest return or greatest production of wealth.
In a crony system, resources flow to blackmailers and people who can offer "favors". "It's not what you know or even who you know, it is who you bl3w."
Wealth (stored resources) are squandered on rat-holes that make the resources disappear. Enterprises that can create necessities and wealth are starved for credit and human talent.
"In a free society resources are free to flow to the enterprises that offer the greatest return or greatest production of wealth."
DeleteFree economy or not, the capital IS flowing to where it generates the most return.... its just not the same place it is during normal times.
Instead of investing that 100k into your factory to gain a 15% increase in efficiency, you bribe the local politician and land a 50% increase in government contract work.
Wasn't this the same doomcasting before Biden was elected?
ReplyDeleteYou will be taking a different bent on doomsayers before long.
DeleteI would be happy if the chaos is limited to your scenario. I see SHTF, so I really prefer your view.
ReplyDeleteI expect the SHTF in many places. Nobody can predict exactly which ones, what the trigger will be or when they will happen.
DeleteWhat I am comfortable predicting are the macro first-responses to the chaos.
The secondary response is likely to be helicopter money to paper-over what is a nuts-and-bolts problem that cannot be fixed with monetary policy. Inflation will accelerate.
The third ripple of responses might be Balkanization of communities where having the wrong bumper-sticker will get you dragged out of your truck and beaten with tire-irons and chains.
This will ONLY work as long as control can be maintained...if they lose control, cities are three days from anarchy due to lack of food/water if supplies go away. And most people in those cities are paycheck to paycheck. Expect the blue cities states to devolve first!
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, I think chaos will happen if Trump wins. In fact, considering the damaging of truck tires may be an opening salvo of the 'Troubled Times' would not be out of limits.
ReplyDelete