Ukraine is making noises like they will stop trans-shipment of Russian petro products through the country. Color me surprised! They are at war and Ukraine was still doing it? Although, at another level, Ukraine probably had agreements with European countries (other than Russia) to deliver.
The numbers are 300,000 barrels a day of oil and a billion cubic meters of natural gas a day.
Meanwhile, the Israeli military is weighing their options with regard to Iran. The highest value targets are
- Politicians
- Military infrastructure; human, manufacturing and weapons
- Nuclear enrichment infrastructure
- Petroleum based export infrastructure
Of those potential targets, only the oil export infrastructure is not moving and/or is totally in the open. Taking out the two electrical generation plants in Khuzestan and one in Hormozgan province would take three, launch-from-beyond-the-horizon cruise-missiles and would pretty much stop Iranian exports until the transformer-farms were replaced. Three-stinking-missiles. Transformers don't like shrapnel when they are under-load.
And it is an attack that could be repeated any day of the week.
Iran is currently exporting (to the world) about four times as much oil as Russia is shipping through Ukraine.
Other petroleum "based" exports include value-added products like plastic resins used by injection molders and to make fibers and paint.
Iran has a history of using proxies like the Houthi to cripple shipping from other countries in retaliation. It seems likely that one way this could play-out would be for Iran to arm pirates to attack oil tankers and LG tankers that are exiting the Persian Gulf and appear to be bound for the West (in contrast to the Orient).
Natural Gas storage
Europe has the ability to store natural gas by pumping it into geological formations. Their total storage capacity is approximately 2 months worth of average winter-time consumption.
We certainly live in interesting times!
Folks need to get really comfortable with the idea of an electrical grid that is not what it is today.
ReplyDeleteMakes having even a small solar array for grid down emergencies worth something.
ReplyDeleteBetter a few hundred watts and ability to keep fridge and led lights than to sit in the dark smelling the rotting food.
I'm so with you on that one... There's a local guy selling stuff out of a warehouse cash-n-carry, it's DC voltage, I know I can figger it out... But yeah, imagine sitting there with absolutely nothing and asking yourself why DIDN'T you spend the 500 bucks and just throw the panels in the shed? Heck, even just buying that system for $150 @ Harbor Freight...
DeleteI suggest buying better equipment than harbor freight for emergency purposes.
DeleteHF solar kit is better than nothing and mostly serviceable but not compatible with better quality more modular solar panels.
Michael
Austria has apparently now been able to source sufficient gas from other suppliers that we will be able to replace all the Russian gas if it stops. Add salt to taste.
ReplyDeleteknee deep bullshit ^
DeleteCan the EU force Austria to sell it to Germany or Belgium or other countries in the EU?
DeleteAustria is landlocked by all the other countries, so anything coming in (apart from the little bit of local gas) has to come through the European pipeline system. Force is probably the wrong word. There is an EU agreement about it, and landlocked countries are well advised to agree to some things.
DeleteI heard Trump saying the Uke debacle is over when he becomes president, and that he’ll stop it in 24 hours with a phone call. I think he may be exaggerating a bit but it is possible from a practical perspective. From a political perspective… there’s a lot of momentum and capital in that gong show…
ReplyDelete"Hey coke head, the money's done, figure your own shit out."
Delete“Play stupid games, but do it on your own dime.”
DeleteThey bargaining tomorrow.
ERJ, I believe that in fact there were previous agreements in place to continue to tranship the fuel - and given the fact that they are largely dependent on Western European support, they had some interests in keeping the line open.
ReplyDeleteI can very easily see the Middle East effectively shut down for oil transmission for some period of time.
Realistically, the nuke program IS the priority target.
ReplyDeleteRealistically the Use it before you lose it is a priority also.
DeleteSeems there is serious data pointing out that Iran tested an underground nuke on Oct 5th. Being described as a sudden no build up 4.7 scale earthquake.
Didn't Iran close its airspace for a while about that timeframe? Nothing like closing your airspace to get the full attention of neighbors.
The world's enormous population exists only becaus of the widespread availability of cheap energy. This is especially true in
ReplyDeletethe northern hemisphere. Interrupt that energy availability, especially during the cold of winter, and millions will freeze to death or starve. Europe is especially vulnerable.
Think how much havoc, broke Yemen is causing (that the news NEVER mentions), imagine Iran (with a treaty/friendship with Russia) launching thousands of missiles on Israel. They have already proven they can overwhelm US/NATO/Israel's AA systems.
ReplyDeleteSo far both sides have been very measured in their attacks. If either side over does it, the other side will respond accordingly. Iran is no paper tiger, it has a very robust, redundant, in depth capacity wipe out Israel conventionally (maybe has nukes, but they know that is no-win). If Israel keeps the exchanges within limits, Iran will.
The Krain is an evil, Globo Homo, BlackRock, US, Borg, led money laundering, kill whites, defeat Russia, Satanic Enterprise. I didn't come up with this dystopian world view, but I have found "non lamestream" sites that aren't bought and paid for by "the usual suspects". My path to "alt facts" started with Kennedy. I joined the Air Force in '69 to kill commies (and get a skilled trade), by the end of the war, it was obviously a War and Misery, business run by the likes of the Money, Military, industrial Complex. Things have only become more obvious since then.
I know most on this site still believe the U.S. Govt. is good, I don't. The politically correct/affirmative action/DEI/sexual deviants/Satanists have pervaded every level of DotGov. It didn't start with Clinton, but he got it going strong (with executive appointments). Bush ll did nothing to counter it, he left the vast majority of Clintonistas in. O Bozzo "fundamentally changed" America, turned all the alphabet agencies into political (leftist) weapons. Sorry for the rant, I'm frustrated by the "Normalcy Bias", Overton Window view, limiting peoples 30,000 ft over view, to "can't see over the fence view".
I love Heritage/Legacy America, not USA INC. What's wrong with DotGov? It's FEMA, times a thousand.
With that said, I believe the vast majority of Americans are wonderful, patriotic, generous people, with little animosity towards any. But we don't run the show. As (evil, Russian man, bad) Putin, pointed out recently "it doesn't matter who is president of the US, the bureaucracy runs the country." The Commie, DEI, sexually deviant, Satanist, bureaucracy. I won't take it personally if this doesn't show up. Yall run a great site. I read here daily. Prayers, best wishes and good fortune to all. Time is getting short.
Would be fairly sure that they have been told for last couple of years by Europe that if they stop the oil/gas coming one way, then the flow of cash/weapons going the other way would also stop.
ReplyDeleteGiven that they aren't going to force out the Russians with cash/weapons they've been getting, I'd assume they are threatening to cut off the gas unless they get something.