The bottleneck in nitrogen fertilizer distribution due to the issues transiting the Straits of Hormuz is already impacting the Southern Hemisphere.
This video is by an agronomist in South Africa and he points out that farmers in South Africa were already side-lining marginal production areas BEFORE the Straits of Hormuz was closed. That was due to high input costs and low prices for what they produce.More than a month ago, before the price of diesel and nitrogen based fertilizer doubled, the year-on-year increase in production costs in South Africa was estimated to be $45 acre or approximately +25%. (A big tip-of-the-hat to Rich for correcting my math in the comments!)
Farmers are responding by not planting because the harvest (at current prices) will not even cover the variable cost of production.
Near the end of the video, the narrator shares that South Africa produces about half of the calories eaten by the 500,000,000 Africans who live south of the equator. 500,000,000 is more than the population of the European Union which is more than the population of the US.
Once those 500,000,000 people get hungry, they are NOT going to passively starve to death in their squalid huts. Nope. They are going to bee-line to the places where there is food and demand that they be fed.
The little boy who cried wolf
"Yeah, sure. We heard that story before".
"And besides, there is nothing I can do about it."
Maybe. Maybe not.
Lawns
Lawns as grown in North America are markers of wealth. HOA have rules about how they are cared for because...well...it signals that "our kind of people" live here and is good for resale prices.
A well cared for lawn consumes 4 pounds of nitrogen per 1000 square feet per year in the North and up to twice that for Bermuda grass in the South.
Admittedly, there is a lot of lawn that doesn't get any fertilizer at all.
So, the average nitrogen application might be 2 pounds per 1000 square feet nationwide.
First-order-approximation
Since nature is very efficient and there is little waste, the fact that maize is about 8% protein (protein is 1/6th nitrogen by weight) means that one pound of corn (which will keep a human alive for a day in terms of calories) requires 0.0133 pounds of nitrogen fertilizer. In round numbers, that is the amount of fertilizer spread on about 6 square-feet of average lawn or 3 square-feet of HOA lawn over the course of the year (in the North).
Looking at a full year's worth of food, the fertilizer used on 1200 square-feet of HOA lawn will grow an incremental amount of corn (maize) that is enough to keep one person who is starving to death alive for a year.
Running the same math for rice the number becomes 1360 square-feet of HOA lawn. That is because rice has slightly more protein than corn.
For wheat the number is 1825 square-feet.
The paradox
The paradox is that the resources will flow to the high-bidder. And if one HOA decides to reduce or forego nitrogen fertilizer then the HOA next door will use just that much more. Fertilizer is a fungible commodity.
So, unless there is a shift in societal norms and lush, dark-green lawns because a sign of shame ("You starved a baby"), then the needle will not move very much.
And even if the HOA Karens are unmoved by pictures of babies with distended bellies, they should consider the specter of 100,000,000 Africans who cannot speak English moving the the US and camping out on their HOA lawns and eating their pets.
You can scream that I am a xenophobe because of that argument. Whatever. If appealing to the Karens self-interests increases food production in the Southern Hemisphere when appealing to their better human nature fails, then I will risk being called a xenophobe.
That is something different to think about. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteStraits
ReplyDeleteThank-you for pointing that out. Correction applied.
DeleteThe aquatic fern Azolla fern fixes nitrogen. Would it be ecologically safe to introduce it to water features you own in order to periodically skim it to use as nitrogen fertilizer? Skimming algae can already be used as phosphorous fertilizer.
ReplyDeleteIt would probably be safe but I think you would need a lot of square-footage to make it worth the effort. It would also probably work better if the water in your system had injections of P, K and micronutrients otherwise the continued harvest of Azolla would deplete them to the point of sterility.
DeleteWell, where I head about algae farming for phosphorous they were using it to recover phosphorous from field run off.
DeleteYes, it is going to get ugly, and people will die. But the MSM will 'ignore' it since it's not happening 'here', unless they can blame it on Trump.
ReplyDeleteI think some of your numbers are incorrect, when I watched the video I heard him say that input costs for fuel and nitrogen to plant wheat had increased around 1800 Rand per hectare which is about 45 dollars per acre in areas that typically grow about 45 bushels per acre.
ReplyDeleteYou might be right. Let me double check.
DeleteYou were correct. I also added some text about farmers not planting...which is the main point of the video.
DeleteI believe we are all on the edge. It's just them that are going over it first. ---ken
ReplyDeleteIs that deep larder of shelf stable food looking less crazy yet?
ReplyDeleteWorst case if I am wrong and "AMERICA" has "plenty" of food (YEAH RIGHT China-Trump recent agreements, eh?) you still get to eat it.
Michael the oddly anonymous today
The waste associated with the American obsession to have a lawn is ludicrous....to say nothing of the insanity of golf courses. All those resources would be much better used if redirected.
ReplyDeleteAs for the half billion turd world savages who would come running to where the food is....that can't happen of we DON'T LET THEM. But modern civilization would rather commit cultural suicide rather than do anything unpleasant in order to survive. Just one more point of evidence proving we are NOT an intelligent species.
Here in central Tex we take whatever can grow out here, this "lawn" is a mix of about 10-12 different "weeds". Collectively, they look like a nice lawn from far away, but up close you laugh when you see they are weeds and remember the Almighty made weeds to be beautiful too, and the best part is no maintenance is required.
ReplyDeleteNovice hobby gardener. Seen other discussions on nitrogen. Been romancing getting a stock of fertilizer before the prices skyrocket. Your analysis tripped the trigger. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteSo what would it do to transportation if DEF was used as fertilizer? Would it stop ocean crossings, trucking?
ReplyDeletesam
"...South Africa produces about half of the calories eaten by the 500,000,000 Africans who live south of the equator. ..."
ReplyDeleteMight be better to put that in the past tense.
After I read the "south of the equator" again I had to look at a globe, that looks to be around a third of the continent.
DeleteSub-Saharan Africa starts at about 11 degrees north and extends southward. I suspect he was rounding down to "equator" to economize on words but really meant 11 degrees N.
DeleteMy new neighbor asked what I put on my lawn weekly to keep it so green. Horse manure and bedding. I said spreading it like that keeps the flies down and adds to the soil. Most went on the hay fields but about every 6 weeks the front yard got a dose.
ReplyDeleteNo more horses so the front lawn (3.5 acres) is on its own.
My Papaw taught me to always maintain a stock of composted steer manure to make manure tea with in a elevated barrel to gravity feed to the garden. My vegetables look like they are on steroids all summer.
ReplyDeleteYour Pawpaw raised you right.
DeleteGot bermuda. I note I do not use enough nitrogen. Thanks for the tip. Planted winter rye to enhance the organic in the soil which is "red clay silt". In the back back yard as we call it I had a stand of "Poverty Grass". aerate, rye grass (dies with a sustained temp of 80+) lime and seeded with a pasture grass mix this spring. Going to top dress it lightly after the twins have their grad party. Maybe I will have healthy dear that leave my hosta alone. (fat chance) Roger
ReplyDelete